Economic Slowdown?

Hmmm

New York (CNN Business)The Dow fell 460 points Friday after a US recession indicator blinked red and a report on German manufacturing raised concerns about Europe's most important economy.

The index shed 1.8%, while the S&P 500 closed down 1.9%. The Nasdaq plunged 2.5%. It was the worst performance for all three major indexes since January 3.

The yield on 3-month Treasuries rose above the rate on 10-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007 ? a shift that scared Wall Street. Investors have piled back into stocks after a sell-off in late 2018.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/investing/dow-stock-market-yield-curve/index.html
 
I certainly do not hope for a recession or anything damaging our country. I don't know if the slowdown will damage or do good when looking at it long term though.

Based on our history, the recession is actually a cyclical thing we can't prevent. So yes, it is seasonal.

I think we are about to have another one, but Trump might try to delay or do anything to prevent it while he is the President.

 
Technically what is defined as a ?recession ? may not matter this time , other factors more important in terms of impact on job market and your pocketbook . I will explain in more detail little later .
 
I heard something interesting....they mentioned on CNBC that Australia hasn't had a recession in over 25 years, including our Great Recession 10 years ago.  One of the hosts explained that a significant part of that was that their FED and gov't would act very quickly on any hints of an economic slowdown so they've always had a soft landing.  Wonder if that's what we'll have this go around....only time will tell.
 
I wouldn't necessary look to the past to predict the future this time. What we will be facing in the next 5-10 years will be completely different from the past.

Massive adoptions of AI and automation will cause massive disruptions in the US and global economy.

For those who don't beleive this is coming, I recommend watching the video (easily found on youtube) on Goggle's new AI Assistant. It's scary close to being able to replace the 2.5 million humans currently working at call centers across the US. Self driving cars and trucks will replace millions of human drivers.

Projections varies but McKinsey report from last year said that 400 million to 800 million jobs worldwide would be automated by 2030.

Part of US, like silicon valley, will obviously thrive and other parts of US will struggle mightily.

 
Kenkoko said:
I wouldn't necessary look to the past to predict the future this time. What we will be facing in the next 5-10 years will be completely different from the past.

Massive adoptions of AI and automation will cause massive disruptions in the US and global economy.

For those who don't beleive this is coming, I recommend watching the video (easily found on youtube) on Goggle's new AI Assistant. It's scary close to being able to replace the 2.5 million humans currently working at call centers across the US. Self driving cars and trucks will replace millions of human drivers.

Projections varies but McKinsey report from last year said that 400 million to 800 million jobs worldwide would be automated by 2030.

Part of US, like silicon valley, will obviously thrive and other parts of US will struggle mightily.

Many call centers are outsourced to India and Asia already so that won't be a big blow, but I can see how AI is negatively effect many other jobs in the future.  I think having a STEM background/education will serve people very well in the future.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Many call centers are outsourced to India and Asia already so that won't be a big blow, but I can see how AI is negatively effect many other jobs in the future.  I think having a STEM background/education will serve people very well in the future.

There are still 2.5 million call center workers here in the US.

This is the one industry i see getting wiped out very quickly unlike truck drivers where the robot driving trunks will take years to replace most human drivers.

STEM related jobs will thrive. But people often refer to STEM as the solution and not necessarily take into consideration that only 8% of total USA jobs are STEM related.

Unfortunately, there is no magic button to press or magic retraining programs that will transform meaningful numbers of call center workers and trunk drivers into coders.

AI and automation disruption is hard to solve.
 
JIMHO, most pros are really missing the boat and underestimating the on the level of white collar worker that is going to get smacked by AI/Automation.

At the same time, Boeing Max8 highlights how stupid comapnies will be in pursuit of bottomlinen with it.
 
Automation only goes so far. There is a point, no matter what industry, where human interaction is necessary and not easily replaced.

Society will adapt... until Skynet terminates us all. :)
 
nosuchreality said:
JIMHO, most pros are really missing the boat and underestimating the on the level of white collar worker that is going to get smacked by AI/Automation.

Definitely agree with that.

And most regular people are still either unaware or still in denial.

I am in healthcare and AI assisted software ownership brought in late 2017 has already trimmed our back office staff by about 30%. It's only going to get worse.

Radiology is another obvious thing. AI can see shades of gray on a film that a human eye cannot. AI can reference millions of films where an expert Radiologist can probably reference thousands.
 
Kenkoko said:
nosuchreality said:
JIMHO, most pros are really missing the boat and underestimating the on the level of white collar worker that is going to get smacked by AI/Automation.

Definitely agree with that.

And most regular people are still either unaware or still in denial.

I am in healthcare and AI assisted software ownership brought in late 2017 has already trimmed our back office staff by about 30%. It's only going to get worse.

Radiology is another obvious thing. AI can see shades of gray on a film that a human eye cannot. AI can reference millions of films where an expert Radiologist can probably reference thousands.

Yup. Also, another example the self serve kiosk at Mc Donald?s and Walmart. How about the Amazon store without no cashier. It?s so automated that it has sensors and cameras equipped with AI technology.

There?s even speed cameras that issues tickets for people going over the speed limit. (not in California) A person can argue this potentially might take away jobs from the police department.

 
irvinehomeowner said:
Automation only goes so far. There is a point, no matter what industry, where human interaction is necessary and not easily replaced.

This is the most common response to the coming threats of automation and AI. You are right but also dead wrong.

You are right that humans will not be completely replaced. But that was never the goal anyway. The goal was to replace most humans at least at the beginning.

Take truck driving for example. Many truck drivers are still in denial that robot drivers can and will take their jobs. The common belief is that there is no way a robot can do what they do, making thousands of decisions on the road. But what they are missing is that Robots don't have to.

Most of the driving from east coast to west coast passes through sparsely populated area. Robot driving between western Pennsylvania and Nevada would only need to make very few decisions on the interstate.  From there human drivers will get in and take it rest of the way as Robots are not ready to drive in urban populated areas.

This will not replace all of the 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA. But will cause massive disruption in the industry and destroy millions of jobs.

irvinehomeowner said:
Society will adapt

This is also a common response but also not very true. If you look at what happened to the manufacturing workers in the mid west who lost their jobs to automation. Half of them never worked again. Of that group, half filed for disability. Suicides spiked.

94% truck drivers are male, average age 49 with a high school degree. What exactly are you expecting them to adapt to? are they really going to move to silicon valley and become app developers?
 
They will adapt by going on unemployment and us paying even more taxes to support all of them.
 
Kenkoko said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Automation only goes so far. There is a point, no matter what industry, where human interaction is necessary and not easily replaced.

This is the most common response to the coming threats of automation and AI. You are right but also dead wrong.

You are right that humans will not be completely replaced. But that was never the goal anyway. The goal was to replace most humans at least at the beginning.

Take truck driving for example. Many truck drivers are still in denial that robot drivers can and will take their jobs. The common belief is that there is no way a robot can do what they do, making thousands of decisions on the road. But what they are missing is that Robots don't have to.

Most of the driving from east coast to west coast passes through sparsely populated area. Robot driving between western Pennsylvania and Nevada would only need to make very few decisions on the interstate.  From there human drivers will get in and take it rest of the way as Robots are not ready to drive in urban populated areas.

This will not replace all of the 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA. But will cause massive disruption in the industry and destroy millions of jobs.

irvinehomeowner said:
Society will adapt

This is also a common response but also not very true. If you look at what happened to the manufacturing workers in the mid west who lost their jobs to automation. Half of them never worked again. Of that group, half filed for disability. Suicides spiked.

94% truck drivers are male, average age 49 with a high school degree. What exactly are you expecting them to adapt to? are they really going to move to silicon valley and become app developers?

Granted. But what I mean by adapt is people (and this is generations down the road) will find other purposes.

Not everyone will have to work. If AI/automation replaces the majority of the workforce, society will change from a working mentality to something else. Maybe artistic... everyone will be entertainers (although you could replace that with robots). Maybe we'll all just be consumers instead of producers like in WALL-E.

There has to be some evolution... or like I said, the computers will just end the human race.
 
eyephone said:
Yup. Also, another example the self serve kiosk at Mc Donald?s and Walmart. How about the Amazon store without no cashier. It?s so automated that it has sensors and cameras equipped with AI technology.

There?s even speed cameras that issues tickets for people going over the speed limit. (not in California) A person can argue this potentially might take away jobs from the police department.

McDonald also just acquired a Machine Learning AI company for 300 million last week. If you go to an Amazon fulfillment center or warehouse, it's all robots.

This is going to crash down like a tidal wave. The economic impact isn't going to stop at just humans being replaced by AI and automation. Take truck drivers for example. After robots replaced big numbers of human drivers, many of the 5 million people working at truck stops, motels, diners will lose their jobs too when trunks no longer stop. This will decimate many parts of America and will be a huge drag on our economy.
 
qwerty said:
They will adapt by going on unemployment and us paying even more taxes to support all of them.

I think this is the most likely outcome and frankly a bit worse. Not just unemployment.  Substance abuse, suicides, crimes will all go up. Will cost us more than just unemployment benefits.

The worst part about all this to me is that the "us" paying for it won't even include the real winners of AI/automation. Big tech companies like Amazon will make continue to rake in record profits and pay zero federal taxes.
 
People think that AI/Automation are coming but it already happened to the manufacturing front.  Companies produced twice as much with like 2/3 fewer people.  People will always be in the mix somewhere but you just need fewer of them.

I also agree with AI hitting white collar jobs...just look at tax preparation or low level attorney work...you simply do not need a real person to do those things any more.
 
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