Author Topic: Report on housing by Steven Thomas  (Read 1864 times)

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Offline the.irvine

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Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« on: March 07, 2019, 05:34:25 PM »
What you guys think of analysis from Steven Thomas. As per his latest report , current market is slightly favoring sellers.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2019, 05:40:29 PM »
I don't agree, maybe on the low end of the market but I think even then it's more of a neutral market.  Overall, it's a weak buyer's market....strong buyer's market on the high end.
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Offline Leaf

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2019, 09:28:23 PM »
I don't agree, maybe on the low end of the market but I think even then it's more of a neutral market.  Overall, it's a weak buyer's market....strong buyer's market on the high end.

I found this blog which uses data by Steven Thomas: http://jordanbennettonline.com/category/orange-county-housing-reports/
To avoid seasonal impact, we can check the year over year data. From the latest blog, for February 2019,
(1) Active listing: there are 51% more homes than last year.
(2) Demand, the number of pending sales: Last year, there were 2,441 pending sales, 17% more than today.

Year over year, luxury homes (above $1.25 million) demand is down by 70 pending sales, or 20%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an
additional 308 homes, or 19%.

So compared to February 2018, the inventory is building up while the demanding is down.  But we don't know if the average selling price is up or down.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2019, 10:24:57 AM »
I don't agree, maybe on the low end of the market but I think even then it's more of a neutral market.  Overall, it's a weak buyer's market....strong buyer's market on the high end.

I found this blog which uses data by Steven Thomas: http://jordanbennettonline.com/category/orange-county-housing-reports/
To avoid seasonal impact, we can check the year over year data. From the latest blog, for February 2019,
(1) Active listing: there are 51% more homes than last year.
(2) Demand, the number of pending sales: Last year, there were 2,441 pending sales, 17% more than today.

Year over year, luxury homes (above $1.25 million) demand is down by 70 pending sales, or 20%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an
additional 308 homes, or 19%.

So compared to February 2018, the inventory is building up while the demanding is down.  But we don't know if the average selling price is up or down.

Both average and median price per SF in Irvine for Jan/Feb are basically flat year to very slightly down year over year but the year over year decline will increase as prices started to increase materially with March closings. 
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Offline meccos12

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2019, 03:58:05 PM »


I found this blog which uses data by Steven Thomas: http://jordanbennettonline.com/category/orange-county-housing-reports/
To avoid seasonal impact, we can check the year over year data. From the latest blog, for February 2019,
(1) Active listing: there are 51% more homes than last year.
(2) Demand, the number of pending sales: Last year, there were 2,441 pending sales, 17% more than today.

Year over year, luxury homes (above $1.25 million) demand is down by 70 pending sales, or 20%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an
additional 308 homes, or 19%.

So compared to February 2018, the inventory is building up while the demanding is down.  But we don't know if the average selling price is up or down.

There are some people on this blog who cant understanding using YoY numbers to avoid seasonal impact. 

Offline Mety

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2019, 01:30:26 PM »
I don't know. I'm definitely seeing more people visiting open houses compare to end of last year's when there was literally no one visiting. Whenever I would visit just to check out since it was close, the agent or the open house person would keep asking and asking if I was interested since I was the only person there. Surely showed the sign of desperation. Not a good marketing strategy in my opinion since it just makes me want to leave soon. Now, I do see more people coming in and out, but not sure if they are actually buying. And they do not look FCB. For $1.5m - 2m homes, I'm still the only one visiting lol.


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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2019, 02:31:04 PM »
I don't know. I'm definitely seeing more people visiting open houses compare to end of last year's when there was literally no one visiting. Whenever I would visit just to check out since it was close, the agent or the open house person would keep asking and asking if I was interested since I was the only person there. Surely showed the sign of desperation. Not a good marketing strategy in my opinion since it just makes me want to leave soon. Now, I do see more people coming in and out, but not sure if they are actually buying. And they do not look FCB. For $1.5m - 2m homes, I'm still the only one visiting lol.


As I mentioned, the lower end has picked up a bit with the lower rates and prices have come down from the peak as I've seen it first hand with a few of my buyers having come off the sidelines.  Three homes that I made offers on in Irvine (sub $800k) actually had multiple offers on them.
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Offline curious george

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2019, 02:38:22 PM »
what do you consider as high end?

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2019, 03:33:42 PM »
what do you consider as high end?


$1.3m and up.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2019, 09:40:01 AM »
Wow. $1m isn't even considered high-end in Irvine?

Crazy.
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Offline Cares

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2019, 10:00:35 AM »
Wow. $1m isn't even considered high-end in Irvine?

Crazy.

It honestly isn't. You can't consider something high-end until you have a driveway. $1M isn't buying you new construction with an unshared driveway. Legado has a driveway up front but it is still a shared motorcourt.

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2019, 10:22:36 AM »
But there is resale with driveways for $1m... I think even less.
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Offline Mety

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2019, 11:33:14 AM »
But there is resale with driveways for $1m... I think even less.

What year was it built?
I'm not against older homes, but if you have to spend another $100k just to fix things (not upgrading) then that number should be counted as well. If someone is happy with the older style as is then no problemo.


Offline shahshah

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2019, 11:41:05 AM »
Wow. $1m isn't even considered high-end in Irvine?

Crazy.

It honestly isn't. You can't consider something high-end until you have a driveway. $1M isn't buying you new construction with an unshared driveway. Legado has a driveway up front but it is still a shared motorcourt.

If you have a driveway that leads to a garage that is your own and not shared but is not long enough to park more than a motorcycle does that qualify as a drive way?

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Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2019, 12:54:53 PM »
But there is resale with driveways for $1m... I think even less.

What year was it built?
I'm not against older homes, but if you have to spend another $100k just to fix things (not upgrading) then that number should be counted as well. If someone is happy with the older style as is then no problemo.



There are SFRs built in the 2000s that have full driveways under $1m in Irvine, nothing newer than early 2000s though (West Irvine, Northpark, Oak Creek, and Northwood Pointe are the areas to look for these homes).
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