Author Topic: Report on housing by Steven Thomas  (Read 965 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline the.irvine

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 12
  • -Received: 24
  • Posts: 226
Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« on: March 07, 2019, 05:34:25 PM »
What you guys think of analysis from Steven Thomas. As per his latest report , current market is slightly favoring sellers.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2038
  • -Received: 1612
  • Posts: 8019
  • Gender: Male
Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2019, 05:40:29 PM »
I don't agree, maybe on the low end of the market but I think even then it's more of a neutral market.  Overall, it's a weak buyer's market....strong buyer's market on the high end.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Leaf

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 10
  • -Received: 1
  • Posts: 17
Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2019, 09:28:23 PM »
I don't agree, maybe on the low end of the market but I think even then it's more of a neutral market.  Overall, it's a weak buyer's market....strong buyer's market on the high end.

I found this blog which uses data by Steven Thomas: http://jordanbennettonline.com/category/orange-county-housing-reports/
To avoid seasonal impact, we can check the year over year data. From the latest blog, for February 2019,
(1) Active listing: there are 51% more homes than last year.
(2) Demand, the number of pending sales: Last year, there were 2,441 pending sales, 17% more than today.

Year over year, luxury homes (above $1.25 million) demand is down by 70 pending sales, or 20%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an
additional 308 homes, or 19%.

So compared to February 2018, the inventory is building up while the demanding is down.  But we don't know if the average selling price is up or down.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2038
  • -Received: 1612
  • Posts: 8019
  • Gender: Male
Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2019, 10:24:57 AM »
I don't agree, maybe on the low end of the market but I think even then it's more of a neutral market.  Overall, it's a weak buyer's market....strong buyer's market on the high end.

I found this blog which uses data by Steven Thomas: http://jordanbennettonline.com/category/orange-county-housing-reports/
To avoid seasonal impact, we can check the year over year data. From the latest blog, for February 2019,
(1) Active listing: there are 51% more homes than last year.
(2) Demand, the number of pending sales: Last year, there were 2,441 pending sales, 17% more than today.

Year over year, luxury homes (above $1.25 million) demand is down by 70 pending sales, or 20%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an
additional 308 homes, or 19%.

So compared to February 2018, the inventory is building up while the demanding is down.  But we don't know if the average selling price is up or down.

Both average and median price per SF in Irvine for Jan/Feb are basically flat year to very slightly down year over year but the year over year decline will increase as prices started to increase materially with March closings. 
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline meccos12

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 30
  • -Received: 60
  • Posts: 326
Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2019, 03:58:05 PM »


I found this blog which uses data by Steven Thomas: http://jordanbennettonline.com/category/orange-county-housing-reports/
To avoid seasonal impact, we can check the year over year data. From the latest blog, for February 2019,
(1) Active listing: there are 51% more homes than last year.
(2) Demand, the number of pending sales: Last year, there were 2,441 pending sales, 17% more than today.

Year over year, luxury homes (above $1.25 million) demand is down by 70 pending sales, or 20%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an
additional 308 homes, or 19%.

So compared to February 2018, the inventory is building up while the demanding is down.  But we don't know if the average selling price is up or down.

There are some people on this blog who cant understanding using YoY numbers to avoid seasonal impact. 

Offline Mety

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 102
  • -Received: 112
  • Posts: 890
Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2019, 01:30:26 PM »
I don't know. I'm definitely seeing more people visiting open houses compare to end of last year's when there was literally no one visiting. Whenever I would visit just to check out since it was close, the agent or the open house person would keep asking and asking if I was interested since I was the only person there. Surely showed the sign of desperation. Not a good marketing strategy in my opinion since it just makes me want to leave soon. Now, I do see more people coming in and out, but not sure if they are actually buying. And they do not look FCB. For $1.5m - 2m homes, I'm still the only one visiting lol.


#fepo

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2038
  • -Received: 1612
  • Posts: 8019
  • Gender: Male
Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2019, 02:31:04 PM »
I don't know. I'm definitely seeing more people visiting open houses compare to end of last year's when there was literally no one visiting. Whenever I would visit just to check out since it was close, the agent or the open house person would keep asking and asking if I was interested since I was the only person there. Surely showed the sign of desperation. Not a good marketing strategy in my opinion since it just makes me want to leave soon. Now, I do see more people coming in and out, but not sure if they are actually buying. And they do not look FCB. For $1.5m - 2m homes, I'm still the only one visiting lol.


As I mentioned, the lower end has picked up a bit with the lower rates and prices have come down from the peak as I've seen it first hand with a few of my buyers having come off the sidelines.  Three homes that I made offers on in Irvine (sub $800k) actually had multiple offers on them.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Online curious george

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 40
  • -Received: 1
  • Posts: 72
Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas
« Reply #7 on: Today at 02:38:22 PM »
what do you consider as high end?

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Related Links

Recent Posts

Re: Report on housing by Steven Thomas by curious george
[Today at 02:38:22 PM]


Re: The Investigation by morekaos
[Today at 02:18:52 PM]


Re: The Investigation by Soylent Green Is People
[Today at 01:38:21 PM]


Re: KB Home Genoa at OH by thecolt
[Today at 09:54:59 AM]


Re: Toll Brothers Customer Service by NYT
[Today at 09:23:15 AM]