Blip or bubble? Irvine, Tustin home sales tumbles 13%
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/01/28/blip-or-bubble-irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumbles-13/
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/01/28/blip-or-bubble-irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumbles-13/
Blip or bubble? Irvine, Tustin home sales tumbles 13%
- Thread starter WTTCHMN
- Start date
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Is it seasonal?
Loco_local
Active member
irvinehomeowner said:
I suppose it depends on your definition of seasonal. Chinese home buying season may be coming to an end
"August-to-November sales: 1,940 vs. 2,235 a year earlier. Homebuying in Irvine and Tustin fell 13 percent from August through November vs. the same period in 2017 amid a steep countywide slowdown.
Once primetime selling season ended in Orange County this summer, house hunters balked. That created the slowest-selling August-to-November period in seven years."
ThirtySomethingWEquity
Active member
Loco_local said:
I suspect that might be true, as it seems the biggest slowdown in new development tracts happened with places that were heavily marketed in China. However, I have no idea what the actual cause is, and if it will continue. Does anyone have theories/ideas?
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
Let me tell you guys something.
US homes are no longer good investments for those Chinese or foreign investors. They would rather spend it else where you can get better ROI. Somewhere much cheaper yet developing in a fast paced rate. Vietnam is one of them as of now.
As for the actual cause you are curious of, I suspect it's a combination of everything. Foreign cash stopped flowing in as much, the prices have risen too high the buyers are fed up and rather willing to rent for now, the interest rates have been rising not only for the mortgage but in other areas also, and people are not willing to buy those poor quality flip homes anymore while too many are still investing on those. So on and on...
We are not living in 2017 anymore. Things move on and the the pace gets faster and faster.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Owners are not desperate like they were in the Great Recession era. For most of the active listing in my target list and targeted neighborhoods, low ball offer would not entertain. Discount offers with reasonable discount like 2 - 5 % likely to get a counter back by owner's listing. Then the house will just sit and wait. This is why you see a stagnate in volume and plummet in sales transactions. No surprise there. The price is high and have been staying high. Realtors / Brokers with solid business and well rounded will still get transactions. Newbies are fried and baked.
Other listing in my targeted area that I tracked, after sometimes of listing, it gets delisted and put up for rental. By the way, the rental market have been on fire. Everyone is looking to rent and wait things out. Rental listing in a desirable neighborhood goes off in less than 2 weeks. Do your numbers and run your math, being a renter may work out for the next few years. Being a landlord may be even better with the tax break from GOP, landlords tax break, a whopping 20% profit deductions compare to last year. So assume your profit after all the deductions you get, and I mean there is a lot of way to deducts, your profit for example is 10K get chopped to just 8K for tax liability. This is huge.
Other listing in my targeted area that I tracked, after sometimes of listing, it gets delisted and put up for rental. By the way, the rental market have been on fire. Everyone is looking to rent and wait things out. Rental listing in a desirable neighborhood goes off in less than 2 weeks. Do your numbers and run your math, being a renter may work out for the next few years. Being a landlord may be even better with the tax break from GOP, landlords tax break, a whopping 20% profit deductions compare to last year. So assume your profit after all the deductions you get, and I mean there is a lot of way to deducts, your profit for example is 10K get chopped to just 8K for tax liability. This is huge.
Compressed-Village said:
Not sure which rental area in Irvine you are tracking that's been on fire. Everywhere I am looking the rental market is bleak.
Look at this 2013 built 3200 sqft Single family home in PS for example.
Rental price dropped from 5200/month to 4000/month and still no takers.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/105-Tomato-Spgs-Irvine-CA-92618/136801178_zpid/
woodburyowner
Well-known member
Compressed-Village said:
I would discuss this situation with a tax professional. It's not automatic that a landlord would get the 20% deduction. There are safe harbor rules and other guidelines that one would need to meet in order to qualify for the 20% deduction. It would be difficult to qualify with a single rental property.
Another one
5 beds 5.5 baths 3,286 sqft single family home. Probably around 1.5 mil.
Rent asking went from $6000 to $5800 to $5500 to $5000 to $4500 and still no takers.
On the market since May 2018.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/127-Yellow-Daisy-Irvine-CA-92618/137136211_zpid/
5 beds 5.5 baths 3,286 sqft single family home. Probably around 1.5 mil.
Rent asking went from $6000 to $5800 to $5500 to $5000 to $4500 and still no takers.
On the market since May 2018.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/127-Yellow-Daisy-Irvine-CA-92618/137136211_zpid/
the.irvine
Active member
Kenkoko said:
Sky is falling.....
superbobbay
Member
"2. Who?s up: Prices increased in 7 of the 11 ZIPs as sales rose in 3 ZIPs."
Prices still have gone up even with lower number of sales. :-\
Prices still have gone up even with lower number of sales. :-\
zubs
Well-known member
You know why this downturn isn't going to get real bad?
Cause this time around the property lords are wealthier.
So then, I think what we are looking for are black swan events that could affect housing.
Perhaps a drop in the DOW to 16,000 pts would be the cause of big real estate declines.
But by then, you won't have money either, cause you just got let go and all your investments have turned to shite.
Cause this time around the property lords are wealthier.
So then, I think what we are looking for are black swan events that could affect housing.
Perhaps a drop in the DOW to 16,000 pts would be the cause of big real estate declines.
But by then, you won't have money either, cause you just got let go and all your investments have turned to shite.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Rogue listing. I attempted those listing that is as old as 300+ days and attempt the vulture approach with either a dead numbers or no call back. Listing agent don?t even bother with taking it down. Some of them I actually drove to and occupied. Not knowing if they are renters or owners. There a lot of listing that not tell the entire story. The listing here is an example of that. Good for those to be able to rent at that price. Let me know if you can sign the lease and I will pay you a whole year rent free with that price
.Compressed-Village said:Kenkoko said:
Rogue listing. I attempted those listing that is as old as 300+ days and attempt the vulture approach with either a dead numbers or no call back. Listing agent don?t even bother with taking it down. Some of them I actually drove to and occupied. Not knowing if they are renters or owners. There a lot of listing that not tell the entire story. The listing here is an example of that. Good for those to be able to rent at that price. Let me know if you can sign the lease and I will pay you a whole year rent free with that price
So the price on this rental listing was changed on 1/11... did a ghost from the veterans cemetery do it?
ThirtySomethingWEquity
Active member
zubs said:
I don't think anyone is expecting this downturn to be bad. I think the question is will it be 5% slide, 10% slide everywhere, or just for bad properties that are undesirable?
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
:-X
This is what I call newbies agent. Doing disservices. I think you can walk over since you in that hood and find out if ghost really do exist.
bones said:Compressed-Village said:Kenkoko said:
Rogue listing. I attempted those listing that is as old as 300+ days and attempt the vulture approach with either a dead numbers or no call back. Listing agent don?t even bother with taking it down. Some of them I actually drove to and occupied. Not knowing if they are renters or owners. There a lot of listing that not tell the entire story. The listing here is an example of that. Good for those to be able to rent at that price. Let me know if you can sign the lease and I will pay you a whole year rent free with that price
So the price on this rental listing was changed on 1/11... did a ghost from the veterans cemetery do it?
This is what I call newbies agent. Doing disservices. I think you can walk over since you in that hood and find out if ghost really do exist.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Because PS is a #valuevillage.
