Great Park Retail

Since89

New member
Hey guys,

I stumbled upon this forum recently, and it's been a great resource for me. I've been an Irvine resident since 1989 - moved around the state a few times, but have eventually found my way back here.

I'm looking to buy a home in the GP area (currently rent in Beacon Park), as I want to lock-in some of that pre-GP Retail Center value. Anyone know anything about the timeline of completion or how you think the home prices will move afterwards? Common sense tell me prices will increase. If someone here has purchased a home in an area before a retail center and has seen their home price change after the build, I would love to hear about it.

 
I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.
 
The consensus (of my understanding) is there will never be retails in GP for at least another decade.  >:D
 
Mety said:
The consensus (of my understanding) is there will never be retails in GP for at least another decade.  >:D

There are plans for at least one hotel/commercial area and the water park is coming in 2020.  Orange County already released its plans.
https://www.ocregister.com/2016/11/...ment-in-great-park-that-could-earn-4-billion/

Five Points have zones mapped out for commercial property.
https://www.fivepoint.com/elements/commercial.html
https://www.ocbj.com/news/2017/nov/08/five-point-sells-more-land-homes-plots-retail/
 
Irvinecommuter said:
Mety said:
The consensus (of my understanding) is there will never be retails in GP for at least another decade.  >:D

There are plans for at least one hotel/commercial area and the water park is coming in 2020.  Orange County already released its plans.
https://www.ocregister.com/2016/11/...ment-in-great-park-that-could-earn-4-billion/

Five Points have zones mapped out for commercial property.
https://www.fivepoint.com/elements/commercial.html
https://www.ocbj.com/news/2017/nov/08/five-point-sells-more-land-homes-plots-retail/

So those articles are from 2016 and 2017 but we still have not seen anything being done? Yeah, I will add another decade.





 
Mety said:
The consensus (of my understanding) is there will never be retails in GP for at least another decade.  >:D

I'd take you on that bet, retail (built by any builder/company) will be up by 2029 somewhere in GP.  Dinner at Mastros?  ;D

 
I mean look how fast those buildings at 133/405/5 intersection near Laguna Altura and Quail Hill are getting built. Are those office spaces?

Anyways, all talk for GP retails so far, haven't seen progress in person yet.


 
akkord said:
Mety said:
The consensus (of my understanding) is there will never be retails in GP for at least another decade.  >:D

I'd take you on that bet, retail (built by any builder/company) will be up by 2029 somewhere in GP.  Dinner at Mastros?  ;D

I want in on this action. I'll just ask for a boba!
 
Irvinecommuter said:
I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.


 
 
Mety said:
Irvinecommuter said:
I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.

Wild Rivers: https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2018/04/02/wild-rivers-reopening-2019/
 
Mety said:
Irvinecommuter said:
I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.

Interesting - do you say SG and EV are stronger choices due to their proximity to the WB shopping center? I would argue that the GP homes are just as close plus they sit along the 133 and you can backdoor it to the 5 via Marine Way. Or is it more about the home layouts? There?s some funky floor plans in GP which may exclude multi-gen families (we?ve had to cut out some places that had 3 stories).

The Sales Manager at Cadence Park told me there?s plans for a fitness chain + a few restaurant chains in the CP area over the next 12-18 months - not sure if she was pulling MY chain but it would make sense to have something in that area so the Pavilion Park peeps have some options as well. If that is the case, I can see CP getting a quick boost in value.

If GP retail included a Target and Whole Foods I can only imagine the insanity that would ensue.
 
I actually don't think a retail center will impact home values all that much.

Look at Tustin Legacy (where is qwertustin?). That's a prime retail center but I don't think Greenwood is trading similarly to Irvine (R2D can correct me if I'm wrong).

While a walking distance retail center would be nice for GP, 5P knows that most people drive to retail and that it's more important to have nice parks and schools close by.

I'm with Mety that I think it's a long way away... but maybe not 10 years. And 5P could easily ramp up a retail center if they wanted to.
 
@OP There has been another huge thread on housing analysis if you want to read through it, some believe market will be down in 2019, others believe it will be flat or slightly up.  If you plan to buy for the long term, anywhere in Irvine should be fine IMO. If you want short term appreciation (2 years or so and want out of the home to make a buck), you probably missed the boat in any new build or resale for it to appreciate a ton. 

Mety said:
Irvinecommuter said:
I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.
 
I doubt a Whole Foods will go in the GP. FCBs don?t shop there. 
I could see one of those smaller targets though.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I actually don't think a retail center will impact home values all that much.

Look at Tustin Legacy (where is qwertustin?). That's a prime retail center but I don't think Greenwood is trading similarly to Irvine (R2D can correct me if I'm wrong).

Greenwood is trading very similarly to Irvine.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/305-Barnes-Rd-92782/home/108306879#property-history
Nov 7, 2016 
Bought for  $952,000
Apr 27, 2018 
Sold for $1,215,000 

Another Greenwoood homehttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/261-Barnes-Rd-92782/home/105486321#property-history
March 2016
Bought for $981K
June 2018
Sold for 1.225 Mil
 
Two sales may not say for the whole community.

Kenkoko said:
irvinehomeowner said:
I actually don't think a retail center will impact home values all that much.

Look at Tustin Legacy (where is qwertustin?). That's a prime retail center but I don't think Greenwood is trading similarly to Irvine (R2D can correct me if I'm wrong).

Greenwood is trading very similarly to Irvine.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/305-Barnes-Rd-92782/home/108306879#property-history
Nov 7, 2016 
Bought for  $952,000
Apr 27, 2018 
Sold for $1,215,000 

Another Greenwoood homehttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/261-Barnes-Rd-92782/home/105486321#property-history
March 2016
Bought for $981K
June 2018
Sold for 1.225 Mil
 
Since89 said:
Mety said:
Irvinecommuter said:
I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.

Interesting - do you say SG and EV are stronger choices due to their proximity to the WB shopping center? I would argue that the GP homes are just as close plus they sit along the 133 and you can backdoor it to the 5 via Marine Way. Or is it more about the home layouts? There?s some funky floor plans in GP which may exclude multi-gen families (we?ve had to cut out some places that had 3 stories).

The Sales Manager at Cadence Park told me there?s plans for a fitness chain + a few restaurant chains in the CP area over the next 12-18 months - not sure if she was pulling MY chain but it would make sense to have something in that area so the Pavilion Park peeps have some options as well. If that is the case, I can see CP getting a quick boost in value.

If GP retail included a Target and Whole Foods I can only imagine the insanity that would ensue.

I think SG and EV will have better appreciation because they are The Irvine Company products whereas GP is of FivePoint. Now that may sound a little odd, but let me explain.

I actually like the interior layouts from GP. They are more unique and up-to-date instead of cookie cutters like TIC homes. But those TIC homes will give you less Mello-Roos money out of your pocket each year. As you might already know, MR from GP homes are ridiculous and they rise 2% each year when TIC MR will get less and less each year. I see it as a pure marketing strategy and it's working so far (example: Cypress Village East).

As you pointed out, the distance to the retails is pretty much all the same. The difference comes when GP keeps promising things that can't be kept, but once TIC announces something, it WILL get done soon. I'm sure it's a political mess they are dealing with, but to us buyers, we like to see something more assuring and firm.

I wouldn't like to agree with this, but school ratings do matter in Irvine. Those TIC villages will get you into Northwood High School when GP residents are fed to Portola High. PH is great, so called state of the art facilities and so on. But for investors, higher academic gradings, the better option for them to park money on. Thus those homes fed to NH will be sold a lot quicker than others.

Lastly, there is environmental hazard reasons, but I won't get into that here. You can look up those from someone called YellowFever if you would like to, but according to him, you don't wanna live in GP. Although I like Pavilion Park.

Now all these are just for the investment purposes only since you brought that up in the original post. If you wanna talk about the living qualities, that's a whole another discussion, but if you want to see where the appreciation is at, I would suggest SG, EV or CV(E) more. But if you love GP, then you should buy there. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the retails being built there any time soon. Also I'm not so sure if now is a good time to buy so that's another discussion.





 
Mety said:
Since89 said:
Mety said:
Irvinecommuter said:
I think all homes in Irvine will generally go up...GP included.  Question is whether such appreciation is better, equal to, or lower than other comparable areas. 

Historically, I think PP has not appreciated as well as Stonegate or EW but that's just on my fuzzy memory.  Not sure about BP.

We recently spent some time in the parks in BP and I have to say that the amenities are nice but the lay out is just weird....feels like you are on the edge of the frontier.

I also worry about noise and light pollution.

I actually thought kinda similar about the layout. I visited one of those GP parks since I thought it was all cool and hip, but I didn't like it much for they seemed to lack a little bit of greenery. I liked PS or WB amenities more. But it's just my opinion. Some people might've loved GP ones.

Appreciation wise, I also think Stongate and Eastwood are more assuring choices, not necessarily guaranteeing a better life quality though.

Interesting - do you say SG and EV are stronger choices due to their proximity to the WB shopping center? I would argue that the GP homes are just as close plus they sit along the 133 and you can backdoor it to the 5 via Marine Way. Or is it more about the home layouts? There?s some funky floor plans in GP which may exclude multi-gen families (we?ve had to cut out some places that had 3 stories).

The Sales Manager at Cadence Park told me there?s plans for a fitness chain + a few restaurant chains in the CP area over the next 12-18 months - not sure if she was pulling MY chain but it would make sense to have something in that area so the Pavilion Park peeps have some options as well. If that is the case, I can see CP getting a quick boost in value.

If GP retail included a Target and Whole Foods I can only imagine the insanity that would ensue.


I actually like the interior layouts from GP. They are more unique and up-to-date instead of cookie cutters like TIC homes. But those TIC homes will give you less Mello-Roos money out of your pocket each year. As you might already know, MR from GP homes are ridiculous and they rise 2% each year when TIC MR will get less and less each year. I see it as a pure marketing strategy and it's working so far (example: Cypress Village East).

cancel amazon prime.  that's your 2% right there.
 
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