Author Topic: Irvine Homes and Real Estate  (Read 12792 times)

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #75 on: April 24, 2020, 11:47:38 am »
Bank Jumbo Financing still exists through all the major players. Non-Bank (less documentation, weird income, rental income variables) Jumbo loans have for all intents and purposes vanished.

Back to basic lending may not be a bad thing overall.

My .02c

It was big news that Wells, which was the largest originator, is no longer taking new jumbo loans and will only refinance its current customers that have $250k in deposits with them. The non-bank space I knew would be obliterated because they mostly sell into private securitizations.

It will be interesting to see if the other banks continue to originate without tightening standards, as I was also reading that the requests for forbearance on jumbos was almost as high as for GSE/.gov loans - 5.5% for jumbo vs. 6% for GSE/.gov - even though jumbos receive no government backing or bailouts and aren't mandated to provide forbearance.  Capital requirements might force the banks' hands eventually unless the Fed steps in further.

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #76 on: April 24, 2020, 12:28:36 pm »
I did see WF cutting off 3PO's, but retail as well? YOW. Send link if possible.

My theory: Banks are going to shelve all the Agency stuff for a while and don't really care much about the portfolio jumbos in forbearance. They can hold forever as the Fed backstops them. As non-bank mortgage servicers begin to bust up I'm sure there will be plenty of (pre) arranged marriages between companies.

It's going to get ugly soon. Be sure to be out of the blast zone as you see the fuse shorten.

My .02c

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #77 on: April 24, 2020, 02:14:09 pm »
Ah, you're correct:

Wells Fargo will only refinance only refinance jumbo mortgages for customers who have at least $250,000 in liquid assets with the bank, according to a Wall Street Journal report. With the new policy, customers who have jumbo mortgages with Wells Fargo won’t be able to refinance unless they have money with the bank. Wells Fargo hasn’t changed policies for purchase loans, according to the Wall Street Journal.

https://www.mpamag.com/news/wells-fargo-restricts-jumbo-loan-program-219085.aspx

The article I had originally read was more ambiguous in their wording and made it sound like Wells would only be doing refinances, and only if you had a $250k account with them.

It actually makes more sense.  They still see the value of attracting new HNW customers via their jumbo lending.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #78 on: April 24, 2020, 02:26:45 pm »
I'll argue that Irvine real estate will decline LESS than other surrounding cities just like in the last downturn. Also, Irvine will rebound first and higher than the surrounding cities.

The way I see it, Irvine has a couple of things working against it that didn't exist last time:

1. The tightening in jumbo mortgages will create difficulty obtaining financing.  Obviously, this will be more of a problem for the neighborhoods priced above $950k, but that is a significant chunk of the market in Irvine now, and will create downward price pressure on lower tiers as well.

2. Will the FCB's show up to create an early bottom again?  Due to the global nature of this depression, I'm not so sure, but that will be an interesting thing to monitor.  If only there were a blog focused on Irvine real estate...

There is plenty of access to jumbo loans from direct lenders (banks) as I have a buyer in escrow on an Irvine home getting a loan of around $1m (they are only putting 20% down but could put down 40%+ and have great credit and stable jobs).  As SGIP stated, it's the non-direct lenders who no longer can fund jumbo loans but the big banks have plenty of capital. Do you need good income and credit?  You bet but that's the MO for most all Irvine buyers.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #79 on: April 27, 2020, 08:36:27 am »
What is the YOY same time period median price comparison?

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Offline Panda

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #80 on: April 27, 2020, 08:59:28 am »
IHO, Work has gotten very busy. I will upload the most recent data when I have some downtime. Thanks for your patience.

What is the YOY same time period median price comparison?

Panda... are you ignoring me?
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #81 on: April 27, 2020, 09:11:17 am »
IHO, Work has gotten very busy. I will upload the most recent data when I have some downtime. Thanks for your patience.

What is the YOY same time period median price comparison?

Panda... are you ignoring me?

Ah... no worries. Good to hear you are busy.

How is it going with you with Covid down there? Lots of controversy over Georgia trying to reopen given still a high number of cases there.
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Offline Panda

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #82 on: April 27, 2020, 10:23:27 am »
Irvine, California Real Estate Market Analysis
SFR Transactions from 01/01/2020 - 03/31/2020

Total SFR Transactions: 313
Median : $1,260,000
Min: $557,000
Max: $7,775,000
Median PPSF: $477.34
Median Built: 1970

Homes Sold (Jan 2020) 83 Units: $1,195,000 Median $471.67 PPSF
Homes Sold (February, 2020) 80 Units: $1,245,000 Median $458.05 PPSF
Homes Sold (March, 2020) 97 Units: $1,306,875 Median $495.02 PPSF
Homes Sold (April, 2020) 53 Units: $1,350,000 Median $498.79 PPSF

April Sales for Irvine SFR is down 45% compared to March numbers. I will continue to monitor this data.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2020, 10:41:21 pm by Panda »
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Offline Panda

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #83 on: May 02, 2020, 10:41:26 pm »
IHO, sorry for the delay. Above is the latest data for the SFR Transactions in Irvine for 2020. Due to the Corona lock down, the April Sales for Irvine SFR is down 45% compared to March numbers. I will continue to monitor this data.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #84 on: May 03, 2020, 01:34:55 am »
Actually was looking for median price from last year to this year.

Redfin says it’s up but LLfin says it’s down for the last 500 years.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #85 on: May 04, 2020, 03:08:30 pm »
The fear is palpable.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #86 on: May 04, 2020, 03:45:46 pm »
I'm not worried at all.

More worried about non-Irvine LL properties... just like the last downturn. :)
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #87 on: May 04, 2020, 04:51:11 pm »
I'm not worried at all.

More worried about non-Irvine LL properties... just like the last downturn. :)

Why do you think I been selling?  :)

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #88 on: May 11, 2020, 05:58:55 pm »
Here is what happened to jumbo credit availability in March (hint: Armageddon):

https://mortgageorb.com/mortgage-credit-availability-fell-16-1-in-march
Quote
Credit availability for jumbo loans fell the most – 36.9% – while credit for conforming loans fell by 2.7%.

“There was a reduction in the availability of loans with lower credit scores and higher LTV ratios, and the largest pullback came from the jumbo and non-QM space,” says Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting for the MBA, in a statement. “This month’s release highlights the large retreat from jumbo and non-QM investors due to a sharp drop in liquidity.

Followed by another GUT-WRENCHING decline in April:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/it-hasnt-been-this-hard-to-get-a-mortgage-in-more-than-five-years/
Quote
The MBA report showed that the decline in credit availability was seen across all segments of the mortgage business, although the decline was the most significant in jumbo loans. According to the MBA report, the jumbo MCAI fell by 22.6% in April, continuing a steep decline that began in March.

Poof!...HALF the jumbo loan market just went UP IN SMOKE!!!
« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 06:05:43 pm by Liar Loan »

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Re: Irvine Homes and Real Estate
« Reply #89 on: May 11, 2020, 06:42:47 pm »
Here is what happened to jumbo credit availability in March (hint: Armageddon):

https://mortgageorb.com/mortgage-credit-availability-fell-16-1-in-march
Quote
Credit availability for jumbo loans fell the most – 36.9% – while credit for conforming loans fell by 2.7%.

“There was a reduction in the availability of loans with lower credit scores and higher LTV ratios, and the largest pullback came from the jumbo and non-QM space,” says Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting for the MBA, in a statement. “This month’s release highlights the large retreat from jumbo and non-QM investors due to a sharp drop in liquidity.

Followed by another GUT-WRENCHING decline in April:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/it-hasnt-been-this-hard-to-get-a-mortgage-in-more-than-five-years/
Quote
The MBA report showed that the decline in credit availability was seen across all segments of the mortgage business, although the decline was the most significant in jumbo loans. According to the MBA report, the jumbo MCAI fell by 22.6% in April, continuing a steep decline that began in March.

Poof!...HALF the jumbo loan market just went UP IN SMOKE!!!

Consistent with what I'm seeing. Harder to find jumbo loans because private investors are pulling out. Not to mention there is also a lending liquidity problem as well.

 

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