Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 110673 times)

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Offline irvineband

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1125 on: May 23, 2020, 12:04:20 pm »
Totally agree with the stock market concerns and all the uncertainty but with the real estate market the more I read the more I see it holding up and being more resilient. In most stock market crashes it does hold up minus of course 2008-9 when it caused the crash. I think people have a skewed view of the stock market and the real estate market. They don’t tend to be lock step and alot of people think they are based on 2008-9.

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1126 on: May 23, 2020, 12:13:21 pm »
But how can you be bullish when many people are not paying rent and making mortgage payments. Also, there are some business that are not paying rent for commercial properties. (Private and public companies - publicly disclosed in the news)

Offline irvineband

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1127 on: May 23, 2020, 12:52:17 pm »
I’m talking about residential only and more specifically SFR. Commercial falling off actually helps SFR. People realizes it is worth having a yard.

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1128 on: May 23, 2020, 01:07:39 pm »
I’m talking about residential only and more specifically SFR. Commercial falling off actually helps SFR. People realizes it is worth having a yard.

It is all connected. How can you have a stable housing market when people are not paying their mortgage payment or rent? (rent matters because there are many individuals that own investment properties)

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1129 on: May 23, 2020, 01:57:52 pm »
I’m talking about residential only and more specifically SFR. Commercial falling off actually helps SFR. People realizes it is worth having a yard.

It is all connected. How can you have a stable housing market when people are not paying their mortgage payment or rent? (rent matters because there are many individuals that own investment properties)

This is where location matters and your renter class matters.

For most Irvine renters, I would classified as A type rentals. You will have a high probability of renters with well pay jobs and prefer decent to good school district. You can get the C-D type of renters in San Bernardino / Riverside and run a risk of calling you all the time not paying rent and even burn down your house.

For Airbnb type the prefer location that attract short term rentals are beach close or mountain resort. They are deems as vacation spots and hard to get people vacation now. Tustin / Aliso Viejo / Irvine are suburb that restrict AurBnB but it still happen randomly but way less prevalence. Those AirBnB are at higher risks of default as vacation are putting off until who knows when?

Rental location definitely matters to your rental type A-D.

So will renter D able to afford A type location? Or will type A renters will want to rent in D type location?

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1130 on: May 23, 2020, 02:47:53 pm »
Yes I get it. But you are well capitalized because you planned well. But for a newbie or sideline flipper/investor or move up buyer I would see how it plays out.
The worst case scenario is that you buy now and prices droppppp.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 03:42:31 pm by eyephone »

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1131 on: May 23, 2020, 04:01:38 pm »
There is a couple of ways to see this. We know that when the FED flood the system with cash and liquidity, two things happen, hard assets will at least stable if not rise. Seconds, the dollars although strong against other fiat currency, it will loose purchasing power overtime. The cost of food is not in the CPI index, but this is the most risen. And on top of that restaurant chains when open further will have Covid tax to your bills.

I would not go out now to buy for investment. That windows closed 2 years ago , unless it was a screaming deal to take it off someone hands, happened to be in an odd situation that need to walk away. There always a velocity lags when recession begins to when an assets given up.

This year is done. There will be no deals with the help / manipulation from FED and forebearance plays. There are many factors working against the US economy with the ever implode debts with little to no way out. This is the time to consolidate and capital-cash building and loaded up on liquidities.

You will know when it’s time to buy again, when all the optimism subside and seeing people naked with the tides gone. It’s getting close, mid 2021 but do observe and browse to sense where it is would be a best option and second option.


Offline dream16

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1132 on: May 24, 2020, 03:28:42 am »
High Density and popular areas (Norther Jersey) or (OC - Irvine) with all techies and rich folks are still entangled in price-bidding wars on 1M and up newly built properties (inventories for new SFR homes practically don't exist especially in northern jersey cities - like jersey city/exchange place etc.) I just paid 30K extra over the asking price to win a bidding war so anyone here who feels that in another 2-3 years, you will be picking up new SFR's in these cities for a good 20-30% drop is sadly mistaken and good luck on convincing your wives then.

For Multi, purely investment properties in not so amazing cities - its a different story altogether with the prices starting to fall starting next Summer 2021 all the way till 2023 - that's the time to stay loaded up with cash and buy them for cheap to enjoy passive cash flow.

Offline dream16

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1133 on: May 24, 2020, 03:33:04 am »
I’m talking about residential only and more specifically SFR. Commercial falling off actually helps SFR. People realizes it is worth having a yard.

It is all connected. How can you have a stable housing market when people are not paying their mortgage payment or rent? (rent matters because there are many individuals that own investment properties)

Intention is not to sound extra negative but what we are in right now is not just a recession but a great god-damn depression at unprecedented levels, all those forbearance participants will eventually go into foreclosure late next year, you can all point it to this post in Fall 2021. However, despite that there's plenty of foreign and local money (chinese/arabs/indians) who are and will continue to buy that big fancy yard and the newly built SFR in major cities for whatever price you ask for it - supplies will remain at lows and demands continue to stay higher especially for your primary home.

Offline dream16

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1134 on: May 24, 2020, 03:35:51 am »
I wonder if we're going to start seeing any evidence of this in Irvine and the rest of OC:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/young-join-the-rich-fleeing-america-s-big-cities-for-suburbs

Young Join the Rich Fleeing America’s Big Cities for Suburbs

I saw a report earlier today on CNBC how the activity of the rich buying homes in the suburbs of Westchester County, New Jersey, and Long Island (Hamptons) is increasing in the past month. If the trend is true then we may see more people moving out to the suburb from urban dense areas, this will be supported by the increasing work from home trend. Those folks that are relocating to Irvine from the more dense areas you'll see people wanting lofts, office/dens, and/or extra bedrooms so they can work from home more comfortably.

I live in here - so i 100% agree with this report, having just done a 1M deal here - it is the new norm here and all the new millionaire NYC money is now floating up to the suburbs of Manhattan.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1135 on: May 24, 2020, 10:54:00 am »
Totally agree with the stock market concerns and all the uncertainty but with the real estate market the more I read the more I see it holding up and being more resilient. In most stock market crashes it does hold up minus of course 2008-9 when it caused the crash. I think people have a skewed view of the stock market and the real estate market. They don’t tend to be lock step and alot of people think they are based on 2008-9.

During the 2001-2002 tech bubble bursting recession real estate prices were flat to slightly up so you never know what will happen but inventory levels can provide a good prediction for prices.
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Offline irvineband

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1136 on: May 24, 2020, 07:02:52 pm »

And to your point the inventory is very limited.

Totally agree with the stock market concerns and all the uncertainty but with the real estate market the more I read the more I see it holding up and being more resilient. In most stock market crashes it does hold up minus of course 2008-9 when it caused the crash. I think people have a skewed view of the stock market and the real estate market. They don’t tend to be lock step and alot of people think they are based on 2008-9.

During the 2001-2002 tech bubble bursting recession real estate prices were flat to slightly up so you never know what will happen but inventory levels can provide a good prediction for prices.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1137 on: May 24, 2020, 07:30:25 pm »

And to your point the inventory is very limited.

Totally agree with the stock market concerns and all the uncertainty but with the real estate market the more I read the more I see it holding up and being more resilient. In most stock market crashes it does hold up minus of course 2008-9 when it caused the crash. I think people have a skewed view of the stock market and the real estate market. They don’t tend to be lock step and alot of people think they are based on 2008-9.

During the 2001-2002 tech bubble bursting recession real estate prices were flat to slightly up so you never know what will happen but inventory levels can provide a good prediction for prices.

And that is why prices in the lower end are firm, buyers don't have a lot to pick from even though there are less buyers in the market.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline irvineband

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1138 on: May 30, 2020, 09:44:52 am »
Again I this the trend noted below is a giant advertisement for Irvine. How close to you need to be to LA metro for an HQ meeting once a week and how many parks do you want to live near?

From WSJ today:

Remote Work Could Spark Housing Boom in Suburbs, Smaller Cities

Zil­low’s chief econ­omist, Svenja Gudell, says she doesn’t ex­pect res­i­dents to cut the cord en­tirely from their cities, but that they may opt for an “ex­ten­sion cord” into the sub­urbs where they can get more space, more out­door ar­eas and, of course, a home of­fice.

 

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