Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 70989 times)

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Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #990 on: October 14, 2019, 09:26:38 AM »
If I was a current buyer, I would wait another 6 months to see what will happen.  It is more likely to go flat or down right now.

However, I want to warn people that I felt this way in 2012 when I bought my house...
I wanted to wait a bit longer to 2013 when prices would be EVEN LOWER!!.....but I was lucky the seller accepted my low ball offer.
Ha - I was in the same boat as you in 2012...very glad that I ended up sticking with my purchase at that time. 

Why did I think prices would stay flat or go even lower in 2013?....I think TI had something to do with it.  If you spend a lot of time on a bear forum, your expectations become twisted and TI was a huge bear forum back then.


However, calculated risk and USC told me the bottom was in, and that countered my bear indoctrination to at least get me out and looking at houses...and even making offers.  Plus we had already been hardcore bears since 2007....


We were 5 years into laughing about real estate, so how much longer could property values scrape along the bottom?
« Last Edit: October 14, 2019, 09:32:51 AM by zubs »

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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #991 on: October 14, 2019, 10:37:38 AM »
So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!
Well...I'll give you a scenario where LL is correct.  Lets say that the homes sitting vacant, which are owned and cash owned, the individuals decide they don't want to own them or there is a bigger macro liquidity event that forces that demographic of people to need access to their cash faster then others, which drives Irvine having a higher supply on homes in the market, further pushing down prices (all relative to other areas where you don't have as many heavy cash investors). 

Not saying I would bet odds on that happening, but that is a scenario that could emerge which would put Irvine in a different spot (From a purse supply of homes who are potentially forced to sell).  The caveat there is Irvine has high(er) demand than other areas and others who might look to jump in at that time to buffer that "downside". 

And that's exactly why.

Unlike others who don't understand the premium that Irvine has, I lived in Irvine during the 90s crash. We shopped homes in central OC during that time and were familiar with the market and prices. You could buy more for less in surrounding cities like Lake Forest but when it came to recovery, those cities lagged behind Irvine. People I know, wish they bought an Irvine house rather than somewhere else because it took longer to recover. I've said this before, but why do you think FCBs put their money into Irvine in the first place? If it crashed harder than all the other cities and/or took longer to recover, you think they bought in Irvine just so they could have a small lot and no driveway?

I can understand LL's disdain for the Orange balloon... but why did eyephone and meccos buy in Irvine?

I don't think they ever answered this question, but do they think that Irvine will do worse or better than surrounding cities?

If RE price goes down and there are many houses available on Irvine market, I'll most likely buy another one in Irvine (within our saving budget of course) either for rental or our own.

For the record, I don't think eyephone or meccos12 ever predicted or said Irvine price would go down more than other cities. They just predicted a nation wide market top more than a year ago.

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #992 on: October 14, 2019, 11:42:53 AM »
For the record, I don't think eyephone or meccos12 ever predicted or said Irvine price would go down more than other cities.

That's not what I'm saying nor do I think that either.

What I am saying is that even for those say that Irvine is slowing down, it will not be as "painful" (to quote LL) as other cities. Which enforces why FCBs have bought in Irvine, and why there is a general belief that Irvine is more stable than surrounding cities (which has been backed by historical data despite LL's current stance on what is happening now).
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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #993 on: October 14, 2019, 01:25:55 PM »
For the record, I don't think eyephone or meccos12 ever predicted or said Irvine price would go down more than other cities.

That's not what I'm saying nor do I think that either.

What I am saying is that even for those say that Irvine is slowing down, it will not be as "painful" (to quote LL) as other cities. Which enforces why FCBs have bought in Irvine, and why there is a general belief that Irvine is more stable than surrounding cities (which has been backed by historical data despite LL's current stance on what is happening now).

Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?" I think LL is the only person from what I've read. Kenkoko might be, but I can't be sure if he was saying Irvine would drop "more" than other cities. Others have been saying the whole US RE market is slowing down or the peak was a year ago.

We can dissect so many possibilities of what one's saying -

1. US RE is slowing down
2. Irvine is also slowing down
3. Irvine is NOT slowing down despite the US RE slowdown
4. Irvine is NOT slowing down because US RE is NOT slowing down
5. US RE is NOT slowing down

on
and
on

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #994 on: October 14, 2019, 02:37:17 PM »
Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?"

At the very least, meccos has said Irvine is slowing down. Why else would would he recommend waiting to buy a home in Irvine?

Are you sure read this forum?
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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #995 on: October 14, 2019, 02:39:03 PM »
Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?"

At the very least, meccos has said Irvine is slowing down. Why else would would he recommend waiting to buy a home in Irvine?

Are you sure read this forum?

So which number from I've listed does that belong to?

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #996 on: October 14, 2019, 06:07:33 PM »
For the record, I don't think eyephone or meccos12 ever predicted or said Irvine price would go down more than other cities.

That's not what I'm saying nor do I think that either.

What I am saying is that even for those say that Irvine is slowing down, it will not be as "painful" (to quote LL) as other cities. Which enforces why FCBs have bought in Irvine, and why there is a general belief that Irvine is more stable than surrounding cities (which has been backed by historical data despite LL's current stance on what is happening now).

Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?" I think LL is the only person from what I've read. Kenkoko might be, but I can't be sure if he was saying Irvine would drop "more" than other cities. Others have been saying the whole US RE market is slowing down or the peak was a year ago.

We can dissect so many possibilities of what one's saying -

1. US RE is slowing down
2. Irvine is also slowing down
3. Irvine is NOT slowing down despite the US RE slowdown
4. Irvine is NOT slowing down because US RE is NOT slowing down
5. US RE is NOT slowing down

on
and
on


I am #1 and #2.  US RE is slowing down and Irvine is also slowing down. I am also in the camp that believes the short term peak was a year ago.

I do believe Irvine has a lot of downside resistance, but the upside pop is no longer the slam dunk it was in the past decade.

I am still bullish in the long term (20/30 years ) future of Irvine RE.

But there is no denying that the Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property. Trump has really hastened the decline of the Chinese economy. The Chinese FCBs may not come back in droves (2014-2016 style) in a long time.


Offline Happiness

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #997 on: October 14, 2019, 06:12:14 PM »
The tea leaves tell me September 2019 was the bottom of the current slowdown in Irvine.

With super low interest rates and the fact that prices are lower now than they were last year, expect to see RE prices rise again in Irvine in 2020.

Mark my words, five years from now all you folks on the fence will regret not buying in 2019.


Offline the.irvine

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #998 on: October 14, 2019, 08:35:05 PM »
The tea leaves tell me September 2019 was the bottom of the current slowdown in Irvine.

With super low interest rates and the fact that prices are lower now than they were last year, expect to see RE prices rise again in Irvine in 2020.

Mark my words, five years from now all you folks on the fence will regret not buying in 2019.

Yes agreed. I have seen a lot of activity recently. Even bigger homes 1.2M+ are moving fast.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #999 on: October 15, 2019, 01:54:42 AM »
The tea leaves tell me September 2019 was the bottom of the current slowdown in Irvine.

With super low interest rates and the fact that prices are lower now than they were last year, expect to see RE prices rise again in Irvine in 2020.

Mark my words, five years from now all you folks on the fence will regret not buying in 2019.



Yeah, the bottom seemed to have been Sept to Dec 2018 and as rates started to drop that stabilized the lower end of the market.  It's the lower end of the market that is most sensitive to monthly payment changes.  Several of my lower end buyers would tell me...."my all in gross housing payment needs to stay under $X,XXX per month"  As rates continued lower and the lower end of the market stabilized more buyers came in and you started seeing multiple offers here and there.  Then the middle end of the market picked up in the Spring as rates continued to fall further and those buyers felt that the bottom wasn't dropping out of the market.  Around the same time the higher end buyers came out of the wood work peaking around and throwing offers here and there to see what stuck (these buyers were/are being the most selective and patient).  My guess is that if rates stay this low or grind lower and you don't see job losses, any price declines will be limited and muted.  Trust me, buyers are out there but they are taking their time and being selective (as they should).
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1000 on: October 15, 2019, 03:16:40 AM »
Who are "those say that Irvine is slowing down?"

At the very least, meccos has said Irvine is slowing down. Why else would would he recommend waiting to buy a home in Irvine?

Are you sure read this forum?

So which number from I've listed does that belong to?

Unsure of the relevancy to my point here.

If you bought in Irvine, there has to be some belief in its value proposition over other cities. 
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Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1001 on: October 15, 2019, 07:21:45 AM »
The tea leaves tell me September 2019 was the bottom of the current slowdown in Irvine.

With super low interest rates and the fact that prices are lower now than they were last year, expect to see RE prices rise again in Irvine in 2020.

Mark my words, five years from now all you folks on the fence will regret not buying in 2019.



Yeah, the bottom seemed to have been Sept to Dec 2018 and as rates started to drop that stabilized the lower end of the market.  It's the lower end of the market that is most sensitive to monthly payment changes.  Several of my lower end buyers would tell me...."my all in gross housing payment needs to stay under $X,XXX per month"  As rates continued lower and the lower end of the market stabilized more buyers came in and you started seeing multiple offers here and there.  Then the middle end of the market picked up in the Spring as rates continued to fall further and those buyers felt that the bottom wasn't dropping out of the market.  Around the same time the higher end buyers came out of the wood work peaking around and throwing offers here and there to see what stuck (these buyers were/are being the most selective and patient).  My guess is that if rates stay this low or grind lower and you don't see job losses, any price declines will be limited and muted.  Trust me, buyers are out there but they are taking their time and being selective (as they should).

The rates are really low. Why isn’t there a surge?
#Saltcap
A lot of agents agree with me. That business is not the same like before.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2019, 09:13:33 AM by eyephone »

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1002 on: October 15, 2019, 07:40:35 AM »
The tea leaves tell me September 2019 was the bottom of the current slowdown in Irvine.

With super low interest rates and the fact that prices are lower now than they were last year, expect to see RE prices rise again in Irvine in 2020.

Mark my words, five years from now all you folks on the fence will regret not buying in 2019.



Yeah, the bottom seemed to have been Sept to Dec 2018 and as rates started to drop that stabilized the lower end of the market.  It's the lower end of the market that is most sensitive to monthly payment changes.  Several of my lower end buyers would tell me...."my all in gross housing payment needs to stay under $X,XXX per month"  As rates continued lower and the lower end of the market stabilized more buyers came in and you started seeing multiple offers here and there.  Then the middle end of the market picked up in the Spring as rates continued to fall further and those buyers felt that the bottom wasn't dropping out of the market.  Around the same time the higher end buyers came out of the wood work peaking around and throwing offers here and there to see what stuck (these buyers were/are being the most selective and patient).  My guess is that if rates stay this low or grind lower and you don't see job losses, any price declines will be limited and muted.  Trust me, buyers are out there but they are taking their time and being selective (as they should).

The rates are really low. Why isn’t there a surge?
Buying a home is not the same.
#Saltcap
A lot of agents agree with me. That business is not the same like before.

The interest rate drop stabilized the lower and middle end of the market because it was weakening in the Fall/Winter of 2018.  I think there is too much inventory on the market for prices (including unsold new home inventory...today's shadow inventory) to surge and because of that many buyers are patient and selective as they should be.  In order for prices to go up meaningfully, the market will have to clear that excess inventory first.  I do agree with you that things in the realtor world are not the same as it was in early 2018 but the good agents are still taking care of business.  It's the weak links that are getting weeded out of the system, as they always do in a slowdown/downturn. 
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1003 on: October 15, 2019, 07:52:46 AM »
In a slowdown, there wouldn't be surge in prices due to lower interest rates, it would just be a reduced drop or flattening.

This could be why prices haven't dropped as much as the drop in volume (so far, none of the slowdowners have offered their theory other than lag).

Again, because owners are much more financially stable than previous years, if no other economic disasters hit, there won't be the large drops like we have seen in previous years.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1004 on: October 15, 2019, 09:32:12 AM »
In a slowdown, there wouldn't be surge in prices due to lower interest rates, it would just be a reduced drop or flattening.

This could be why prices haven't dropped as much as the drop in volume (so far, none of the slowdowners have offered their theory other than lag).

Again, because owners are much more financially stable than previous years, if no other economic disasters hit, there won't be the large drops like we have seen in previous years.

There is a surge in application for rentals.  :)

 

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