Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 62630 times)

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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #975 on: October 09, 2019, 12:13:46 PM »
So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!


Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #976 on: October 09, 2019, 12:55:08 PM »
So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!



I just looked at his profile page hoping to paste his avatar in this thread, but alas, he deleted the photo.

Yet I found something else interesting:

Thanks given by LL to YF: 40
Thanks taken from YF to LL: 123

What a high compliment!  I don't remember him ever saying he liked my posts, but he thanked me 3x as many times as I thanked him!  I truly feel like a member of an elite club to have earned his respect!

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #977 on: October 09, 2019, 01:41:13 PM »
Quote
And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

What myth? You already admitted that Irvine dropped less and recovered faster.

So glad you're not a data analyst. You would be unemployed.

I said during the last downturn that Irvine dropped less.  You, on the other hand, have said that Irvine always drops less.

How do you know that this time Irvine won't drop less? Is the slowdown over? So this is the bottom?

You're calling the race before it's over... but maybe that's the only way you can make this look bad for Irvine, to say right now, on October 9, Irvine is crashing harder than other cities. So funny.

Fuzzy math and fake news.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #978 on: October 09, 2019, 02:09:35 PM »
Quote
And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

What myth? You already admitted that Irvine dropped less and recovered faster.

So glad you're not a data analyst. You would be unemployed.

I said during the last downturn that Irvine dropped less.  You, on the other hand, have said that Irvine always drops less.

How do you know that this time Irvine won't drop less? Is the slowdown over? So this is the bottom?

You're calling the race before it's over... but maybe that's the only way you can make this look bad for Irvine, to say right now, on October 9, Irvine is crashing harder than other cities. So funny.

Fuzzy math and fake news.

tic, tic, tic...

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #979 on: October 09, 2019, 02:40:25 PM »
Sure, it’s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don’t mind a bit of discounts. :)

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

Offline Kings

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #980 on: October 09, 2019, 02:54:38 PM »
Sure, it’s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don’t mind a bit of discounts. :)

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #981 on: October 09, 2019, 03:04:10 PM »
My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.

Except 2010 wasn't the bottom... it was more like 2 years later in 2012. So why did you buy in 2010 instead of waiting since prices were still dropping? You didn't want to save 5% or more?

Quote
Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

Were you a first time buyer at both times? Were you able to afford either purchase? Did you like l owning vs renting?

It's not that simple as just bottom or not. Some people can't or don't want to wait 2 years... you didn't.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #982 on: October 09, 2019, 04:03:31 PM »
Sure, it’s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don’t mind a bit of discounts. :)

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

I think some Millennials do enjoy taking advantages of living home in their parents basements.

Most still wants their own place and privacy space. And as high as rent goes for in Irvine, example Portola Court 1 bedroom at 2100 + a month, the place is full.

There are couples and married still want to save and live at home for a short term, then purchase when they are ready. In  all cases, they want their own place. And renting long term, is suicidal to your finance. But it makes landlords happy for sure.

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #983 on: October 09, 2019, 04:25:42 PM »
Sure, it’s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don’t mind a bit of discounts. :)

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

#Boomerang

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #984 on: October 10, 2019, 01:00:34 PM »
Sure, it’s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don’t mind a bit of discounts. :)

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

If they're really hoping for such a huge crash, the majority of them would probably not get qualified to buy a house because that sort of crash would cost their jobs and financial stabilities. There is nothing wrong with trying to time the market, but there is many wrong with waiting for the next crash.

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #985 on: October 10, 2019, 01:07:55 PM »
Sure, it’s a statements of facts FROM LIARS LOANS, whom bought into the very top of the Great Recession in HB. And still licking his own wounds, and proclaim that Irvine is dropping hard. Yeah....very persuasive.

Although I don’t mind a bit of discounts. :)

This is what's known as an ad hominem attack.  When you can't refute the facts, attack the source of the facts.

It's true, I learned a lot about market timing after buying at the peak.  I held my peak purchase property for 11 years until I was break even, and then sold.  The new owner has seen almost no price increases in two years of owning, so it was good timing for us on the way out! 

My second purchase was in Fall of 2010, near the bottom of the price cycle.  How do you think I did on that purchase?

Would you rather encourage first time buyers reading TI to buy at the top or the bottom?  I've experienced both and I can tell you which is preferable.

For entertainment

Knowing what you know, and experienced what you have experienced, what would you advise readers of TI about purchase a home right now, both in Irvine and out of Irvine? In the meantime if they are renting or live at home when do you think you will advise them to go out and purchase a home? Finally, with your experience, if we were to have crash, where do you think mostly affected?

i bet the millennials are happy to keep living in mom & dad's basement rent-free while they "wait for the next market crash"

If they're really hoping for such a huge crash, the majority of them would probably not get qualified to buy a house because that sort of crash would cost their jobs and financial stabilities. There is nothing wrong with trying to time the market, but there is many wrong with waiting for the next crash.

Uh yeah

Offline Bullsback

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #986 on: Yesterday at 08:04:28 AM »
Quote
And that's without a recession to really kick things into high gear.  The data has completely debunked the myth that Irvine always drops slower than surrounding cities. 

What myth? You already admitted that Irvine dropped less and recovered faster.

So glad you're not a data analyst. You would be unemployed.

I said during the last downturn that Irvine dropped less.  You, on the other hand, have said that Irvine always drops less.
Back in the mid 90's, where there was also a pretty big drop...I recall Irvine getting hit really hard. Not sure how it fared relative to other areas and obviously that is a long time ago, but I know in a very short window property prices took a huge hit and took a decent chunk of time to recover (not saying it was 08 bad). 

Offline Bullsback

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #987 on: Yesterday at 08:05:15 AM »
If I was a current buyer, I would wait another 6 months to see what will happen.  It is more likely to go flat or down right now.

However, I want to warn people that I felt this way in 2012 when I bought my house...
I wanted to wait a bit longer to 2013 when prices would be EVEN LOWER!!.....but I was lucky the seller accepted my low ball offer.
Ha - I was in the same boat as you in 2012...very glad that I ended up sticking with my purchase at that time. 

Offline Bullsback

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #988 on: Yesterday at 08:07:36 AM »
So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!
Well...I'll give you a scenario where LL is correct.  Lets say that the homes sitting vacant, which are owned and cash owned, the individuals decide they don't want to own them or there is a bigger macro liquidity event that forces that demographic of people to need access to their cash faster then others, which drives Irvine having a higher supply on homes in the market, further pushing down prices (all relative to other areas where you don't have as many heavy cash investors). 

Not saying I would bet odds on that happening, but that is a scenario that could emerge which would put Irvine in a different spot (From a purse supply of homes who are potentially forced to sell).  The caveat there is Irvine has high(er) demand than other areas and others who might look to jump in at that time to buffer that "downside". 

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #989 on: Yesterday at 08:22:49 AM »
So LL does agree that Irvine dropped less than others in last crash but is firming believing that it will drop (or is already dropping) more than others this time.

Ok, that's your opinion based on datas and experiences so I can respect that. But remember, your opinion can turn out to be wrong. We're all wrong many times so it's ok.

BTW, welcome back, YF!!
Well...I'll give you a scenario where LL is correct.  Lets say that the homes sitting vacant, which are owned and cash owned, the individuals decide they don't want to own them or there is a bigger macro liquidity event that forces that demographic of people to need access to their cash faster then others, which drives Irvine having a higher supply on homes in the market, further pushing down prices (all relative to other areas where you don't have as many heavy cash investors). 

Not saying I would bet odds on that happening, but that is a scenario that could emerge which would put Irvine in a different spot (From a purse supply of homes who are potentially forced to sell).  The caveat there is Irvine has high(er) demand than other areas and others who might look to jump in at that time to buffer that "downside". 

And that's exactly why.

Unlike others who don't understand the premium that Irvine has, I lived in Irvine during the 90s crash. We shopped homes in central OC during that time and were familiar with the market and prices. You could buy more for less in surrounding cities like Lake Forest but when it came to recovery, those cities lagged behind Irvine. People I know, wish they bought an Irvine house rather than somewhere else because it took longer to recover. I've said this before, but why do you think FCBs put their money into Irvine in the first place? If it crashed harder than all the other cities and/or took longer to recover, you think they bought in Irvine just so they could have a small lot and no driveway?

I can understand LL's disdain for the Orange balloon... but why did eyephone and meccos buy in Irvine?

I don't think they ever answered this question, but do they think that Irvine will do worse or better than surrounding cities?
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