Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 48274 times)

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Offline Kings

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #690 on: July 17, 2019, 12:03:05 PM »
More winning!

Quote
“A confluence of many factors — slower economic growth abroad, tighter capital controls in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and a low inventory of homes for sale — contributed to the pullback of foreign buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, the magnitude of the decline is quite striking, implying less confidence in owning a property in the U.S.”

Quote
In the first quarter of this year, Chinese buyer inquiries for U.S. properties on Juwai.com, a Chinese real estate site, were down 27.5% from a year ago. Inquiries have been down in four of the last five quarters.

“We call it the Trump effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clampdown on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Carrie Law, CEO and director of Juwai.com, said in a recent interview. “The Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property, including buying homes for students who are studying in the U.S. and the country’s reputation as a safe investment.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #691 on: July 17, 2019, 12:40:30 PM »
More winning!

Quote
“A confluence of many factors — slower economic growth abroad, tighter capital controls in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and a low inventory of homes for sale — contributed to the pullback of foreign buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, the magnitude of the decline is quite striking, implying less confidence in owning a property in the U.S.”

Quote
In the first quarter of this year, Chinese buyer inquiries for U.S. properties on Juwai.com, a Chinese real estate site, were down 27.5% from a year ago. Inquiries have been down in four of the last five quarters.

“We call it the Trump effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clampdown on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Carrie Law, CEO and director of Juwai.com, said in a recent interview. “The Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property, including buying homes for students who are studying in the U.S. and the country’s reputation as a safe investment.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

going by your logic, why shouldn't stocks be lower to let average american families who alredy dont have large portofolios, a chance to build wealth ?  why are you guys doing cartwheels every time stocks go up ?

i know you dont have a logical reply for this, just hide behind a random gif and be done with it

Offline Kings

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #692 on: July 17, 2019, 01:02:04 PM »
More winning!

Quote
“A confluence of many factors — slower economic growth abroad, tighter capital controls in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and a low inventory of homes for sale — contributed to the pullback of foreign buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, the magnitude of the decline is quite striking, implying less confidence in owning a property in the U.S.”

Quote
In the first quarter of this year, Chinese buyer inquiries for U.S. properties on Juwai.com, a Chinese real estate site, were down 27.5% from a year ago. Inquiries have been down in four of the last five quarters.

“We call it the Trump effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clampdown on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Carrie Law, CEO and director of Juwai.com, said in a recent interview. “The Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property, including buying homes for students who are studying in the U.S. and the country’s reputation as a safe investment.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

going by your logic, why shouldn't stocks be lower to let average american families who alredy dont have large portofolios, a chance to build wealth ?  why are you guys doing cartwheels every time stocks go up ?

i know you dont have a logical reply for this, just hide behind a random gif and be done with it

why so hostile?  this is a family-oriented message board and i think this is great news for future irvine residents!

and i hope you're not serious about your reply, but i'll humor you anyway.  stocks can be purchased at any time and the market can keep increasing - there is no competition or limiting factors (other than price of a single stock in itself, but you can purchase etfs or other instruments to build wealth). 

a homebuyer often-times has to compete with other offers, with varying prices and terms.  when there is more competition, especially from buyers who are paying all cash with enticing terms like fcbs, the average first time home buyer is left behind and could spend months or even years trying to find a home.  have you ever been in this position?  i'm sure many on this board can relate to this.

hope this helps!

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #693 on: July 17, 2019, 03:48:45 PM »
this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

The average American families cannot afford anything in Irvine. FTHBs in Irvine are FAR from your average American families.

Offline Kings

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #694 on: July 17, 2019, 03:53:11 PM »
this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

The average American families cannot afford anything in Irvine. FTHBs in Irvine are FAR from your average American families.

remove "average" and my point still stands.  chinese buyers paying all cash aren't competing against "average" american buyers for property that is $400k in middle america anyway. 

"average american irvine buyers"

better?  :)

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #695 on: July 17, 2019, 03:55:23 PM »
this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

The average American families cannot afford anything in Irvine. FTHBs in Irvine are FAR from your average American families.

That’s why they need to consider to live in LB with Morekas!  ;)
« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 04:17:38 PM by eyephone »

Online morekaos

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #696 on: July 17, 2019, 05:12:03 PM »
No no, stay in the OC. 90803 is consistently in the Forbes 500 most expensive zip codes in the country. I don’t want it driven higher.  Stay behind the orange curtain, please.

Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #697 on: July 17, 2019, 08:22:25 PM »
More winning!

Quote
“A confluence of many factors — slower economic growth abroad, tighter capital controls in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and a low inventory of homes for sale — contributed to the pullback of foreign buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, the magnitude of the decline is quite striking, implying less confidence in owning a property in the U.S.”

Quote
In the first quarter of this year, Chinese buyer inquiries for U.S. properties on Juwai.com, a Chinese real estate site, were down 27.5% from a year ago. Inquiries have been down in four of the last five quarters.

“We call it the Trump effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clampdown on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Carrie Law, CEO and director of Juwai.com, said in a recent interview. “The Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property, including buying homes for students who are studying in the U.S. and the country’s reputation as a safe investment.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

going by your logic, why shouldn't stocks be lower to let average american families who alredy dont have large portofolios, a chance to build wealth ?  why are you guys doing cartwheels every time stocks go up ?

i know you dont have a logical reply for this, just hide behind a random gif and be done with it

why so hostile?  this is a family-oriented message board and i think this is great news for future irvine residents!

and i hope you're not serious about your reply, but i'll humor you anyway.  stocks can be purchased at any time and the market can keep increasing - there is no competition or limiting factors (other than price of a single stock in itself, but you can purchase etfs or other instruments to build wealth). 

a homebuyer often-times has to compete with other offers, with varying prices and terms.  when there is more competition, especially from buyers who are paying all cash with enticing terms like fcbs, the average first time home buyer is left behind and could spend months or even years trying to find a home.  have you ever been in this position?  i'm sure many on this board can relate to this.

hope this helps!

I was going to take a break since on vacation but one of my well wishers here reminded of this nonsensical reply that needed to be addressed —

So let’s deconstruct this

Kings believes that average families can build wealth even if stocks stay at all time highs because , lo and behold , there is always another expensive stock to buy ! Wow I had no idea  :)  what an insight . Now let me go build my wealth .

I will tell you about the psychology of buyers  — People talk about waiting for the bottom and better prices but no one, absolutely no one likes to buy a home only to watch it’s value go down . This is partly why volumes (from individual buyers) freeze up in a declining market

What people end up doing is buying when the market is in an uptrend . If something you buy keeps going up in price everyday / week / month / quarter (whatever, pick your period ) , it “feels” like you bottom-ticked it , even if you actually didn’t .




Offline Kings

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #698 on: July 18, 2019, 06:06:03 AM »
More winning!

Quote
“A confluence of many factors — slower economic growth abroad, tighter capital controls in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and a low inventory of homes for sale — contributed to the pullback of foreign buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, the magnitude of the decline is quite striking, implying less confidence in owning a property in the U.S.”

Quote
In the first quarter of this year, Chinese buyer inquiries for U.S. properties on Juwai.com, a Chinese real estate site, were down 27.5% from a year ago. Inquiries have been down in four of the last five quarters.

“We call it the Trump effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clampdown on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Carrie Law, CEO and director of Juwai.com, said in a recent interview. “The Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property, including buying homes for students who are studying in the U.S. and the country’s reputation as a safe investment.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

going by your logic, why shouldn't stocks be lower to let average american families who alredy dont have large portofolios, a chance to build wealth ?  why are you guys doing cartwheels every time stocks go up ?

i know you dont have a logical reply for this, just hide behind a random gif and be done with it

why so hostile?  this is a family-oriented message board and i think this is great news for future irvine residents!

and i hope you're not serious about your reply, but i'll humor you anyway.  stocks can be purchased at any time and the market can keep increasing - there is no competition or limiting factors (other than price of a single stock in itself, but you can purchase etfs or other instruments to build wealth). 

a homebuyer often-times has to compete with other offers, with varying prices and terms.  when there is more competition, especially from buyers who are paying all cash with enticing terms like fcbs, the average first time home buyer is left behind and could spend months or even years trying to find a home.  have you ever been in this position?  i'm sure many on this board can relate to this.

hope this helps!

I was going to take a break since on vacation but one of my well wishers here reminded of this nonsensical reply that needed to be addressed —

So let’s deconstruct this

Kings believes that average families can build wealth even if stocks stay at all time highs because , lo and behold , there is always another expensive stock to buy ! Wow I had no idea  :)  what an insight . Now let me go build my wealth .

I will tell you about the psychology of buyers  — People talk about waiting for the bottom and better prices but no one, absolutely no one likes to buy a home only to watch it’s value go down . This is partly why volumes (from individual buyers) freeze up in a declining market

What people end up doing is buying when the market is in an uptrend . If something you buy keeps going up in price everyday / week / month / quarter (whatever, pick your period ) , it “feels” like you bottom-ticked it , even if you actually didn’t .

i think you should go have another margarita and enjoy your time off  :)

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #699 on: July 18, 2019, 07:40:25 AM »
More winning!

Quote
“A confluence of many factors — slower economic growth abroad, tighter capital controls in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and a low inventory of homes for sale — contributed to the pullback of foreign buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, the magnitude of the decline is quite striking, implying less confidence in owning a property in the U.S.”

Quote
In the first quarter of this year, Chinese buyer inquiries for U.S. properties on Juwai.com, a Chinese real estate site, were down 27.5% from a year ago. Inquiries have been down in four of the last five quarters.

“We call it the Trump effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clampdown on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Carrie Law, CEO and director of Juwai.com, said in a recent interview. “The Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property, including buying homes for students who are studying in the U.S. and the country’s reputation as a safe investment.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

this is actually great news because it gives average american families an opportunity to purchase a home without worrying about an fcb coming in all cash with no contingencies.  i'm sure plenty of fthb on this board will welcome this change!

going by your logic, why shouldn't stocks be lower to let average american families who alredy dont have large portofolios, a chance to build wealth ?  why are you guys doing cartwheels every time stocks go up ?

i know you dont have a logical reply for this, just hide behind a random gif and be done with it

why so hostile?  this is a family-oriented message board and i think this is great news for future irvine residents!

and i hope you're not serious about your reply, but i'll humor you anyway.  stocks can be purchased at any time and the market can keep increasing - there is no competition or limiting factors (other than price of a single stock in itself, but you can purchase etfs or other instruments to build wealth). 

a homebuyer often-times has to compete with other offers, with varying prices and terms.  when there is more competition, especially from buyers who are paying all cash with enticing terms like fcbs, the average first time home buyer is left behind and could spend months or even years trying to find a home.  have you ever been in this position?  i'm sure many on this board can relate to this.

hope this helps!

What is the difference between a buyers ready to buy and a buyer bottom fishing?

— A ready to buy, buyers have a target price range and the locations of choice in mind, if they outbid and out of range they move on to the next property and get it.

— A bottom fishing buyers will often time wait to loose out opportunities and waiting for the crater price, which even when bottom, often fail to acts.

I recent had a convo with a middle age white woman in a coffee shop, and I feel sad for her. She’s a 20 years Irvine residence and her entire life is living as a renter in a rental apartment. Moving from one to another Irvine. She seem distraught  as she said with her recent move it cost her too much and now have been considering moving to Idaho. She said she was a perfect tenant but each time comes renewal the big greedy rental corporations raise her rent which force her to relocate. And in recent years it get smaller and more cramped location.

I feel for her, and I am thinking at the time, she lived through and saw the absolute bottom and the peak of the market but failed on those opportunities. She simply can’t afford even at the bottom. Regardless of the trending, once a buyer ready and ables, they will execute. For many price has gotten too high and simply cannot do it.

The one that waiting will usually bitters later on.

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Offline Agent Joe

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #700 on: July 28, 2019, 10:23:20 PM »
No one knows when the market will bottom with 100% confidence/accuracy. I mean NO ONE. If anyone throws out a time, I'd love to hear the facts and numbers backing up the claim. Buy when the numbers make sense for you personally. Unless you are flipping, it really makes little difference when the market fluctuates. You will always need a place to live and so will tenants. If you are flipping, then good luck to you.
Joseph Du
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CalDRE: 02066402
Specialized in new homes and residential real estate investing.

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Offline momopi

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #701 on: July 29, 2019, 09:32:02 AM »

I like to bottom fish, but you have to careful.  Often the smaller palm sized sand dabs are more profitable in numbers than larger and more impressive looking halibut.  Also some rock fish have sharp, venomous quills like fixer uppers with large hidden repair costs.

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #702 on: July 29, 2019, 11:07:17 AM »
In my opinion: buying real estate is a big transaction

Therefore, I see nothing wrong with an individual waiting for the right time to buy.

The smart/successful business do careful analysis before they take action. (Buying equipment, hiring more people, advertisement/marketing, acquiring a company) So it’s okay for a business to think things through and not individuals?

There is no question that the new tax law has an effect on real estate.

Offline Cares

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #703 on: July 29, 2019, 11:58:24 AM »
There is no question that the new tax law has an effect on real estate.

I honestly think it has minimal effect. I would dare to say very few buyers take into account any tax implications when purchasing a home. Most purchase out of necessity to live somewhere and/or proximity to something.

Plus the tax implication of SALT limit is "minimal" when considering the cost of a home.

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #704 on: July 29, 2019, 01:15:21 PM »
There is no question that the new tax law has an effect on real estate.

I honestly think it has minimal effect. I would dare to say very few buyers take into account any tax implications when purchasing a home. Most purchase out of necessity to live somewhere and/or proximity to something.

Plus the tax implication of SALT limit is "minimal" when considering the cost of a home.

There are many articles from analysts/experts that support my statement.
As I previously stated people were simply buying homes for the deductions aka legal tax shelter. But the tax law changed that approach as there was a cap on RE deductions.

Let me also add lack of foreign buyers.
I’m looking at the numbers and I have to say I’m correct.

One bright spot about RE is the low interest rate. (Refi)
« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 01:43:53 PM by eyephone »

 

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