Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 72428 times)

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Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #675 on: July 10, 2019, 03:15:51 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales fall 11%; countywide pace slowest since 2014 but IHO says it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/07/08/irvine-tustin-home-sales-fall-11-countywide-pace-slowest-since-2014/

You posted something like this already.

Sales volume is down but prices are same or higher.

The article shows two zipcodes with small sales volume having small increases in price (3.9% and 1.3%), but every other zipcode in Irvine had price drops, some up to 11%.  Not sure how you got that prices are same or higher.

I was referring to the previous post on this when I was able to view the article (quoted above), which you did not reply to.

I can’t get through the OCR paywall to look at these numbers, maybe someone can post a copy.

The article quoted above which you referenced is showing the price drops.

Read my previous post about the April article, that's what I was referring to because I couldn't view the May article that you are referencing. Does Mety need to explain that to you?

Quote
So tell me how prices are either flat or rising? 

I said prices are the same or higher (as shown in the April article).

Have you looked at the recent prices? July median, according to Trulia, is the same as last year.

And I didn't say "rising"... you are twisting my words to imply something that I did not say.

Perhaps you shouldnt cite the "article quoted above", since that was from May and not April.  Furthermore, whats the point in referencing an older data, when there is new and updated data? 

Recent prices data based on this most recent article suggest prices drops.  Do you see anything that shows the prices are higher?  You did say that right? 
Oh im sorry, you said higher, not rising.  Yes, im really trying to twist your words.  LOL

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #676 on: July 10, 2019, 03:56:35 PM »
Thanks for keeping us updated.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #677 on: July 10, 2019, 04:36:26 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales fall 11%; countywide pace slowest since 2014 but IHO says it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/07/08/irvine-tustin-home-sales-fall-11-countywide-pace-slowest-since-2014/

You posted something like this already.

Sales volume is down but prices are same or higher.

The article shows two zipcodes with small sales volume having small increases in price (3.9% and 1.3%), but every other zipcode in Irvine had price drops, some up to 11%.  Not sure how you got that prices are same or higher.

I was referring to the previous post on this when I was able to view the article (quoted above), which you did not reply to.

I can’t get through the OCR paywall to look at these numbers, maybe someone can post a copy.

The article quoted above which you referenced is showing the price drops.

Read my previous post about the April article, that's what I was referring to because I couldn't view the May article that you are referencing. Does Mety need to explain that to you?

Quote
So tell me how prices are either flat or rising? 

I said prices are the same or higher (as shown in the April article).

Have you looked at the recent prices? July median, according to Trulia, is the same as last year.

And I didn't say "rising"... you are twisting my words to imply something that I did not say.

Perhaps you shouldnt cite the "article quoted above", since that was from May and not April.  Furthermore, whats the point in referencing an older data, when there is new and updated data? 

Recent prices data based on this most recent article suggest prices drops.  Do you see anything that shows the prices are higher?  You did say that right? 
Oh im sorry, you said higher, not rising.  Yes, im really trying to twist your words.  LOL

You just don’t get it.

Are you denying that current prices (July) are the same or higher than last year?

And I can play your game, have prices “risen” since April and May?

Post some data that shows me otherwise. LOL.
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Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #678 on: July 11, 2019, 05:39:15 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales fall 11%; countywide pace slowest since 2014 but IHO says it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/07/08/irvine-tustin-home-sales-fall-11-countywide-pace-slowest-since-2014/

You posted something like this already.

Sales volume is down but prices are same or higher.

The article shows two zipcodes with small sales volume having small increases in price (3.9% and 1.3%), but every other zipcode in Irvine had price drops, some up to 11%.  Not sure how you got that prices are same or higher.

I was referring to the previous post on this when I was able to view the article (quoted above), which you did not reply to.

I can’t get through the OCR paywall to look at these numbers, maybe someone can post a copy.

The article quoted above which you referenced is showing the price drops.

Read my previous post about the April article, that's what I was referring to because I couldn't view the May article that you are referencing. Does Mety need to explain that to you?

Quote
So tell me how prices are either flat or rising? 

I said prices are the same or higher (as shown in the April article).

Have you looked at the recent prices? July median, according to Trulia, is the same as last year.

And I didn't say "rising"... you are twisting my words to imply something that I did not say.

Perhaps you shouldnt cite the "article quoted above", since that was from May and not April.  Furthermore, whats the point in referencing an older data, when there is new and updated data? 

Recent prices data based on this most recent article suggest prices drops.  Do you see anything that shows the prices are higher?  You did say that right? 
Oh im sorry, you said higher, not rising.  Yes, im really trying to twist your words.  LOL

You just don’t get it.

Are you denying that current prices (July) are the same or higher than last year?

And I can play your game, have prices “risen” since April and May?

Post some data that shows me otherwise. LOL.

Why dont you open the link that WTTCHMN posted on this post and it will show you what everyone else can see.  Like I said before, the article shows mostly price drops in Irvine, some as much as 11%.   

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #679 on: July 11, 2019, 07:04:45 PM »
If you read more and rant less you will get it.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #680 on: July 12, 2019, 11:05:59 AM »
Why dont you open the link that WTTCHMN posted on this post and it will show you what everyone else can see.

Why don't you since as I've said (and you didn't read), I'm blocked from the OCReg article?

Quote
Like I said before, the article shows mostly price drops in Irvine, some as much as 11%.   

I think you are being misleading with how you phrase your summation of the article, are you saying that there are more than *one* zip code in Irvine that is lower YOY by 11%? What is the average?

You had no trouble posting the data in the past, why not post it now? It's just copy and paste like I did with the April article above (which is what I meant about the article I *quoted*).

I really want to read this article to actually see what it says.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #681 on: July 12, 2019, 03:45:36 PM »
For discussions

Irvine, Tustin home sales fall 11%; countywide pace slowest since 2014

Home sales for May totaled 513 vs. 576 a year earlier.

Jonathan LansnerJuly 8, 2019 at 4:08 pm

STAFF GRAPHIC
Homebuying in Irvine and Tustin fell 11% as Orange County sales stalled to the slowest pace since 2014.

CoreLogic homebuying stats show May was the 10th consecutive month Orange County home sales failed to beat the pace of the year-ago period. It was also the slowest-selling May countywide in five years as sales ran 13% below their historical monthly norm. Fewer buyers cut the countywide median selling price by the largest amount in seven years.

ICYMI: OC suffers nation’s 10th largest net population outflow

How do these homebuying patterns translate locally? Well, CoreLogic found these 17 trends in 11 ZIP codes covered by the Orange County Register’s Irvine World News weekly, …

1. Purchases: 513 home sales in May vs. 576 a year earlier, a decline of 11% in a year.

2. Who’s up: Prices increased in three of the 11 ZIPs as sales rose in seven ZIPs.

3. Countywide: $720,500 median selling price, down 2.6% in a year. Orange County saw 3,313 existing and new residences sell vs. 3,526 a year earlier, a decline of 6% in a year. Prices rose in 44 out of 83 Orange County ZIPs; sales were up in 40 out of 83 ZIPs.

Here is how prices and sales moved in Irvine and Tustin …

4. Irvine 92602: $1,195,000 median, down 2.9% in a year. Price rank? 12th of 83. Sales of 37 vs. 88 a year earlier, a decline of 58.0% in 12 months.

5. Irvine 92603: $1,267,500 median, up 3.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 24 vs. 38 a year earlier, a decline of 36.8% in 12 months.

6. Irvine 92604: $761,250 median, down 1.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 34 of 83. Sales of 28 vs. 24 a year earlier, a gain of 16.7% in 12 months.

7. Irvine 92606: $872,500 median, up 1.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 23 of 83. Sales of 14 vs. 16 a year earlier, a decline of 12.5% in 12 months.

8. Irvine 92612: $715,000 median, down 5.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 43 of 83. Sales of 61 vs. 38 a year earlier, a gain of 60.5% in 12 months.

9. Irvine 92614: $725,500 median, down 11% in a year. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 30 vs. 27 a year earlier, a gain of 11.1% in 12 months.

10. Irvine 92618: $897,500 median, down 0.8% in a year. Price rank? No. 21 of 83. Sales of 127 vs. 97 a year earlier, a gain of 30.9% in 12 months.

11. Irvine 92620: $958,000 median, down 6.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 19 of 83. Sales of 67 vs. 131 a year earlier, a decline of 48.9% in 12 months.

12. Tustin 92780: $585,000 median, down 11.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 63 of 83. Sales of 45 vs. 42 a year earlier, a gain of 7.1% in 12 months.

13. Tustin 92782: $684,750 median, down 5.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 48 of 83. Sales of 40 vs. 37 a year earlier, a gain of 8.1% in 12 months.

14. Santa Ana/North Tustin 92705: $888,500 median, up 9.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 22 of 83. Sales of 40 vs. 38 a year earlier, a gain of 5.3% in 12 months.

Sign up for The Home Stretch newsletter and its new Bubble Watch edition. Get a  twice-a-week serving of hot housing news from around the region! Subscribe here.
Plus, three more countywide trends found in May vs. May 2018 …

15. Single-family home resales: 2,107 Orange County sales vs. 2,135 a year earlier, a decline of 1.3% in the period. Median: $800,000 — a rise of 0.6% in the period.

16. Condo resales: 944 sales vs. 939 a year earlier, a gain of 0.5% in a year. Median: $497,500 — a dip of 1.5% in 12 months.

17. New homes: Builders sold 262 residences vs. 452 a year earlier, a decline of 42% in 12 months. Median: $944,000 — a dip of 4.3% in 12 months.

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Offline ThirtySomethingWEquity

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #682 on: July 12, 2019, 03:55:27 PM »
For discussions

Irvine, Tustin home sales fall 11%; countywide pace slowest since 2014

Home sales for May totaled 513 vs. 576 a year earlier.

Jonathan LansnerJuly 8, 2019 at 4:08 pm

STAFF GRAPHIC
Homebuying in Irvine and Tustin fell 11% as Orange County sales stalled to the slowest pace since 2014.

CoreLogic homebuying stats show May was the 10th consecutive month Orange County home sales failed to beat the pace of the year-ago period. It was also the slowest-selling May countywide in five years as sales ran 13% below their historical monthly norm. Fewer buyers cut the countywide median selling price by the largest amount in seven years.

ICYMI: OC suffers nation’s 10th largest net population outflow

How do these homebuying patterns translate locally? Well, CoreLogic found these 17 trends in 11 ZIP codes covered by the Orange County Register’s Irvine World News weekly, …

1. Purchases: 513 home sales in May vs. 576 a year earlier, a decline of 11% in a year.

2. Who’s up: Prices increased in three of the 11 ZIPs as sales rose in seven ZIPs.

3. Countywide: $720,500 median selling price, down 2.6% in a year. Orange County saw 3,313 existing and new residences sell vs. 3,526 a year earlier, a decline of 6% in a year. Prices rose in 44 out of 83 Orange County ZIPs; sales were up in 40 out of 83 ZIPs.

Here is how prices and sales moved in Irvine and Tustin …

4. Irvine 92602: $1,195,000 median, down 2.9% in a year. Price rank? 12th of 83. Sales of 37 vs. 88 a year earlier, a decline of 58.0% in 12 months.

5. Irvine 92603: $1,267,500 median, up 3.9% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 24 vs. 38 a year earlier, a decline of 36.8% in 12 months.

6. Irvine 92604: $761,250 median, down 1.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 34 of 83. Sales of 28 vs. 24 a year earlier, a gain of 16.7% in 12 months.

7. Irvine 92606: $872,500 median, up 1.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 23 of 83. Sales of 14 vs. 16 a year earlier, a decline of 12.5% in 12 months.

8. Irvine 92612: $715,000 median, down 5.3% in a year. Price rank? No. 43 of 83. Sales of 61 vs. 38 a year earlier, a gain of 60.5% in 12 months.

9. Irvine 92614: $725,500 median, down 11% in a year. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 30 vs. 27 a year earlier, a gain of 11.1% in 12 months.

10. Irvine 92618: $897,500 median, down 0.8% in a year. Price rank? No. 21 of 83. Sales of 127 vs. 97 a year earlier, a gain of 30.9% in 12 months.

11. Irvine 92620: $958,000 median, down 6.6% in a year. Price rank? No. 19 of 83. Sales of 67 vs. 131 a year earlier, a decline of 48.9% in 12 months.

12. Tustin 92780: $585,000 median, down 11.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 63 of 83. Sales of 45 vs. 42 a year earlier, a gain of 7.1% in 12 months.

13. Tustin 92782: $684,750 median, down 5.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 48 of 83. Sales of 40 vs. 37 a year earlier, a gain of 8.1% in 12 months.

14. Santa Ana/North Tustin 92705: $888,500 median, up 9.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 22 of 83. Sales of 40 vs. 38 a year earlier, a gain of 5.3% in 12 months.

Sign up for The Home Stretch newsletter and its new Bubble Watch edition. Get a  twice-a-week serving of hot housing news from around the region! Subscribe here.
Plus, three more countywide trends found in May vs. May 2018 …

15. Single-family home resales: 2,107 Orange County sales vs. 2,135 a year earlier, a decline of 1.3% in the period. Median: $800,000 — a rise of 0.6% in the period.

16. Condo resales: 944 sales vs. 939 a year earlier, a gain of 0.5% in a year. Median: $497,500 — a dip of 1.5% in 12 months.

17. New homes: Builders sold 262 residences vs. 452 a year earlier, a decline of 42% in 12 months. Median: $944,000 — a dip of 4.3% in 12 months.

Interesting, the correction is happening as we speak, even with the economy being pretty good. 

Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #683 on: July 12, 2019, 04:20:36 PM »
Let's take the OC Registers highest discount #12 (92780 @ $585,000 median, down 11.4% in a year) and check it on the internet:
Trulia says the current sales median for 92780 is $650,000.
Redfin says the current median for 92780 is $679,450.
Zillow says the current median for 92780 is $701,900, but I think that is for listed median.

I know the TI realestate agents have the actual data and can run these numbers.  Who is right?  I'd prefer sales median then listing median.


Here is Trulia's website on 92780:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/92780-Tustin/market-trends/
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 04:26:00 PM by zubs »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #684 on: July 12, 2019, 05:16:09 PM »
So where is the “some” as much as 11% in Irvine?

I only see *one*... 92614.

And if you average all the Irvine zips out, is it down about 2.9%?

The drops in volume would make you think it should be lower so I guess we will see in June/July prices.
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Offline shahshah

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #685 on: July 16, 2019, 05:53:31 PM »
Here is another great example of where the market is for 3bds. WB on fire.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/1-Ironwood-92604/home/4689194

Offline misme

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #686 on: July 16, 2019, 07:16:49 PM »
Here is another great example of where the market is for 3bds. WB on fire.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/1-Ironwood-92604/home/4689194

I think part of the high price is the single story aspect. Those are super rare in Irvine, especially for a 3 BR.


Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #687 on: July 16, 2019, 11:18:53 PM »
So is this is the kind of slowdown where prices are not jumping too high during the summer?

But not the kind of slowdown you would wait for a bottom because that 20% discount may not be materializing... unless you cherry pick and use fuzzy math.
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Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #688 on: July 17, 2019, 08:03:53 AM »
More winning!

Quote
“A confluence of many factors — slower economic growth abroad, tighter capital controls in China, a stronger U.S. dollar and a low inventory of homes for sale — contributed to the pullback of foreign buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “However, the magnitude of the decline is quite striking, implying less confidence in owning a property in the U.S.”

Quote
In the first quarter of this year, Chinese buyer inquiries for U.S. properties on Juwai.com, a Chinese real estate site, were down 27.5% from a year ago. Inquiries have been down in four of the last five quarters.

“We call it the Trump effect. It’s a combination of anti-Chinese political rhetoric, a clampdown on visa processing, and of course tariffs,” Carrie Law, CEO and director of Juwai.com, said in a recent interview. “The Trump effect is undercutting some of the primary drivers of Chinese demand for U.S. property, including buying homes for students who are studying in the U.S. and the country’s reputation as a safe investment.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #689 on: July 17, 2019, 11:34:51 AM »
Here is another great example of where the market is for 3bds. WB on fire.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/1-Ironwood-92604/home/4689194

I think part of the high price is the single story aspect. Those are super rare in Irvine, especially for a 3 BR.



There were some other 3br 1-levels I posted in the last few weeks... but not as high as the *amazing* Woodbridge price of $935k, $10k over asking... this is supposed to be a slowdown... what did these sell for last year?
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