Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 53176 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #645 on: June 06, 2019, 12:08:53 PM »
Again, to get back on topic:

I think this is a question that should be pretty clear to everyone:

If in December, prices drop like they *seasonally* do (surprise!), what percentage difference from the previous year would we consider this "slowdown" non-seasonal?


Other than the volume, the pricing up and down seems "seasonal" to me.
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Offline WTTCHMN

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #646 on: June 14, 2019, 04:15:55 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #647 on: June 14, 2019, 05:29:28 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

Sales volume is down but prices are still high. Must be that lag that’s coming in December.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #648 on: June 14, 2019, 06:03:53 PM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

 ;) 8) :P

Offline Kings

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #649 on: June 15, 2019, 06:03:47 AM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

why did they use a rolling 9 month period of sales ending in april?  what's wrong with 12 months?  almost feels like cherry picked data?

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #650 on: June 15, 2019, 07:33:02 AM »
Irvine, Tustin home sales tumble 16% in O.C. worst slump since 2012

But according to IHO, it's just seasonal

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/14/irvine-tustin-home-sales-tumble-16-in-o-c-worst-slump-since-2012/

Sales volume is down but prices are still high. Must be that lag that’s coming in December.

Let's see what the article and data actually says:

Quote
CoreLogic found these 17 trends in 11 ZIP codes covered by the Orange County Register’s Irvine World News weekly …

1. Purchases: Home sales in these nine months totaled 3,767 vs. 4,503 a year earlier, a decline of 16% in a year.

2. Who’s up: Prices increased in seven of the 11 ZIPs as sales rose in just two ZIPs.

3. Countywide: $720,000 median selling price, flat in the period. Orange County sales totaled 22,872 residences, existing and new, vs. 27,289 a year earlier, a decline of 16% in a year. Prices rose in 43 out of 83 Orange County ZIPs and sales were up in 9 out of 83 ZIPs.

Here is how prices and sales moved in Irvine and Tustin …

4. Irvine 92602: $1,325,500 median, down 7.3% in a year. Price rank? 8th of 83. Sales of 426 vs. 299 a year earlier, a gain of 42.5% in 12 months.

5. Irvine 92603: $1,092,500 median, down 18.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 10 of 83. Sales of 167 vs. 207 a year earlier, a decline of 19.3% in 12 months.

6. Irvine 92604: $790,250 median, up 14.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 29 of 83. Sales of 164 vs. 187 a year earlier, a decline of 12.3% in 12 months.

7. Irvine 92606: $725,000 median, down 11.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 36 of 83. Sales of 92 vs. 120 a year earlier, a decline of 23.3% in 12 months.

8. Irvine 92612: $675,000 median, up 1.5% in a year.] Price rank? No. 51 of 83. Sales of 299 vs. 301 a year earlier, a decline of 0.7% in 12 months.

9. Irvine 92614: $716,000 median, up 8.5% in a year. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 165 vs. 181 a year earlier, a decline of 8.8% in 12 months.

10. Irvine 92618: $977,000 median, up 21.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 13 of 83. Sales of 1084 vs. 1,327 a year earlier, a decline of 18.3% in 12 months.

11. Irvine 92620: $1,002,250 median, up 0.4% in a year. Price rank? No. 12 of 83. Sales of 607 vs. 973 a year earlier, a decline of 37.6% in 12 months.

So for Irvine's 8 zip codes, 3 were down and 5 were up price-wise. Doing the math, is that a net price increase of 8.8%?

Quote
12. Tustin 92780: $650,000 median, up 17.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 55 of 83. Sales of 255 vs. 320 a year earlier, a decline of 20.3% in 12 months.

13. Tustin 92782: $693,500 median, down 13.7% in a year. Price rank? No. 46 of 83. Sales of 206 vs. 288 a year earlier, a decline of 28.5% in 12 months.

14. Santa Ana/North Tustin 92705: $935,000 median, up 5.1% in a year. Price rank? No. 16 of 83. Sales of 302 vs. 300 a year earlier, a gain of 0.7% in 12 months.

Looks like Tustin prices are more up than down too.

Quote
Plus, three more countywide trends found in nine months ended in April vs. the same period one year earlier …

15. Single-family-home resales: 13,720 Orange County sales vs. 16,058 a year earlier, a decline of 14.6% in the period. Median: $767,000 — a dip of 1.0% in the period.

16. Condo resales: 6,038 sales vs. 7,218 a year earlier, a decline of 16.3% in 12 months. Median: $500,000 — unchanged in the timeframe.

17. New homes: Builders sold 3,114 residences vs. 4,013 a year earlier, a decline of 22.4% in 12 months. Median: $981,500 — a rise of 7.3% in a year.

So even county-wide, despite lower volume, prices are slightly up.

Do we re-check this in July? December? Next year? Next "season"?
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Offline lnc

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #651 on: June 17, 2019, 12:42:51 PM »
Quote
California’s median home price edged higher to another peak for the second straight month as lower interest rates helped bolster home sales in May, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2019releases/may2019sales


Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #652 on: June 17, 2019, 01:13:32 PM »
May to June, looks like pricing has gone down a bit... maybe the "significant slowdown" is this season.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #653 on: June 19, 2019, 09:01:25 PM »
By all mean, Irvine is not a small city Of all the 8 zip codes for Irvine, NOT ONE OF THE ZIP CODE, made the list.

Hmmm.

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/06/18/what-california-cities-have-the-biggest-credit-card-balances/

What does this mean?

The way I interpret this, majority of the people living in Irvine are / will be OK comes next recession. So waiting for the next bottom is futile and wishful.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #654 on: June 20, 2019, 06:32:11 AM »
I'm still not sure why we have to wait until December.

As I've said before, real estate prices (and volume) usually go up during the spring/summer and go back down in the fall/winter. So "seasonally", prices will be low again in December... sure we can compare the YOY numbers to see if this December, prices are lower than last December, but isn't that still just part of the cyclical process?

To me, what will make this "slowdown" non-seasonal is if the prices go down and stay down, no ups, no cycles, just overall prices dropping. And maybe that's where we are splitting hairs, maybe the Slowdowners are referring to a larger smoothed out trend rather than the cyclical up/downs we see every year. That I can see, as I've always contended that prices are too high in Irvine... but the sticking point is how much will the overall drop be and for how long? If both those numbers are significantly more than the last 5-10 years, that should be something to consider.

However, if you are looking to buy, how does this prediction of a slowdown help you? What do you wait for? If you waited until now, you missed the Irvine bottom in Jan/Feb and if you were looking at sales volume as some type of indicator, you may have over waited because that looked like it bottomed out in March after prices already started going back up. As I mentioned above, prices look like they may be trending back down, but then volume is rising and rates are going down (which no one predicted and probably would have been a better herald for when to buy).

This is why timing the bottom is almost impossible to do and why I gave the advice about buying if you found the house you wanted at the price you can afford. There are probably examples of homes that are for sale today that you could have bought last year for the same (or lower?) price and instead of worrying about waiting longer to see how prices are in December, you would have been in your house for a year, paying down the mortgage and probably getting into a refi today that would lower your payments even more.

So yes, maybe there are people who saved money by waiting, but there could also be people who haven't been worried about timing the slowdown this last year and have been enjoying the home they wanted.
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Offline lnc

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #655 on: June 20, 2019, 07:20:43 AM »
With mortgage rate dropping and probably stay low for a while, next housing bottom won’t be here any time soon.

Also Irvine is in the last leg of new constructions and majority of new build will be done in about 5 years, will have even higher pressure on the prices for the existing home. 

Unless something dramatic happens to the economy, best opportunity to buy in Irvine is from now until all the new constructions are done. 

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #656 on: June 24, 2019, 08:29:27 AM »
Funny how no one posts articles that are contrary to The Great Slowdown:

How about this (from February, before prices started going back up):

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/02/19/recession-not-likely-before-2021-housing-economists-say/

Quote
Good news, America: The next recession may not appear in 2020, as a majority of economists long had forecast.

Instead, the next downturn could be delayed until 2021 or later, making the current session of economic growth — now almost a decade old — the longest in U.S. history as of June. That’s the view of three housing economists speaking Tuesday at the annual convention of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in Las Vegas.

Because the Federal Reserve plans to ease up interest rate hikes at least during the first half of this year, and because mortgage rates have decreased somewhat in the past month, the 2019 spring home buying season should be a good one for home sellers, the economists said.

“This expansion will come to an end,” said David Berson, chief economist for Nationwide Insurance. But, he added, “the odds of a downturn in the next year are pretty low.”

[...]

Despite a sales slump in the last half of 2018, homebuying and prices won’t fall in 2019, the economists said.

After rising 2 percent in 2018, new home sales will increase by about 3 percent in 2019, Nothaft predicted.

Although the pace of new home construction will remain well below historical averages, they nonetheless will continue to rise, added Bob Dietz, the NAHB’S chief economist.

After going up 3 percent in 2018, the NAHB predicts single-family home starts will increase 2 percent this year and an additional 4 percent to 928,000 detached houses in 2020.
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Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #657 on: June 24, 2019, 09:16:05 AM »
2020 being an election year, Trump will do all he can to goose the stock market.
Perhaps even lift the 25% tariff on Chinese goods?

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #658 on: June 24, 2019, 09:23:14 AM »
A few years ago, buyers were competing with FCB buyers oversea cash money flown in, now A.I. Taking over.

Meet the A.I. landlord that’s building a single-family-home  - FORTUNE


https://apple.news/AhTzm0x7-SXmVD3OcTO99AQ

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Offline momopi

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #659 on: June 24, 2019, 10:39:02 AM »

Trump is going down the list on trade.  After China he is now targeting India, and already gave Japan 6 month heads up.  I don't really buy the claim that auto/auto parts import is a threat to US national security, but others point to US auto makers exiting the sedan business as German/Japanese victory 50 years in the making.  Well, my wife's Acura is made in Ohio, and the Lexus ES 350 I'm looking at is made in Kentucky.

Regardless of analyst predictions, I'm not waiting until 2020 or 2021.  Selling 2 more investment properties this summer as I type.

 

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