Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 53168 times)

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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #615 on: May 29, 2019, 01:53:17 PM »
I'm not eyephone or meccos or BTB or YF so I can't fully speak for them.

Their silence is interesting.

Quote
Also another thing is this "waiting" thing was not what they were focusing on. They were just saying the market might shift from where it was and it did. Waiting (to
me again) really seemed like a secondary thing while you might have been focusing on that which probably gave you an impression that they were predicting something horrible was about to come.

You must not have read all their posts. The only reason I got into it with eyephone was because he was advising people to wait and that's when I asked for quantification because if you are going to give that kind of advice, you need to qualify it. Then meccos jumped in, defended "the data", and challenged my opinion of why waiting may not be the best choice for some, throwing around his "strawman" accusations.

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EDIT/ADDED: The slowdown from mid-end of last year to now was/is not something that happened like previous years. It was very different and many articles called out the "First ever since 2012" headlines whether they agreed or disagreed with upcoming recessions.

Hasn't someone been saying that every year? It's just like on The Voice when a coach says "You're the best singer I've ever heard" each season just to convince them to pick them. And like the stock market... "oh it can't go any higher"... and then boom, it does.

And again, you must not be reading my posts but a bigger drop happened in 2015 (8.5%) and similar drops to 2018 (4.8%) happened in 2016 (4.4%) and 2017 (5%). But all still less than 10%, so if you're predicting that this is different than anything since 2012, shouldn't the "slowdown" be more than 4.8%?

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I believe you, IHO also agreed it was a little different than a regular seasonal pattern.

No, I said I haven't made my determination yet because we can't know until the season passes.  If you recall, meccos kept harassing me about that, I can find numerous posts to back that up but I shouldn't have to.

So far, it looks similar to previous years, it may not be the same highs/lows but I never said it would be, just that the percentage drops may probably be within the same margin as it is each cycle (seasonal!) and if that margin is 5-10%, waiting may not work because some people are tired of looking/renting/standing on the sidelines and may not be able to time the bottom (the topic of this thread) like they want to.

But who knows... maybe prices will hit a new bottom this year and then everyone can rub it in my online face.

I think from the context of A,B, and C, you might have focused on the C. For me, the A was the most important matter which they called out the housing slowdown before the hottest selling season. The C was when eyephone said maybe waiting option would wise. I don't recall eyephone or anyone forcing people to wait. All expressions were of freedom of speech like how you were arguing back and forth.

I read all your posts too. The strawman argument between you and meccos was kind of pointless so I repeatedly told you guys to move on if you remember..

But interestingly, you seem to be making your position more clear now. I was asking you multiple times what your prediction was and I never heard a clear answer. Now you are giving us these historical drops % numbers and saying you're not sure until we see even more clearly. Well, I think meccos was saying we should wait until December yesterday also. The only difference is meccos gave his clear prediction last year. But to agree or disagree with his prediction is your own opinion which may be completely different than someone else's.

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #616 on: May 29, 2019, 01:56:52 PM »
I was taking a break from TI, but had to come back after I see his post. Not only I posted articles and facts to support my position. There were TI users testimonials that supported my position. “asked for more builder credit (like $50k or more if I remember correctly, someone mentioned they backed out of a deal (because of the market), price reductions on many homes (too many), a member negotiated priced down (like big time), etc...

But meccos said anecdotal/user experience is not valid. He said we should look at actual data.

The data from 3 different sources says that this current "slowdown" in Irvine for pricing isn't any slower than previous years. Number of sales might be... but prices are still sticky.

And even with the reduction of volume, like prices, that happens in seasonal cycles which is what I contended from the beginning.

Here, let me be the first to do this for 2019:

After the summer, we will see a reduction in volume and prices.


:)

I will not be surprised if the opposite happens.  :)

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #617 on: May 29, 2019, 02:30:22 PM »
I guess he doesn’t recognized Case-Shiller index but he recognizes Zillow forecast/predictions.

 ;)

“CNBC Article:Home price gains weaken yet again in March: S&P Case-Shiller index

National home prices rose 3.7% annually in March, down from 3.9% in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.
Prices had been seeing double-digit annual gains, but they are gone.

Given the broader economic picture, housing should be doing better,” David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote in the report. He noted that mortgage rates and unemployment were down, along with low inflation and moderate increases in real incomes.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/home-price-gains-weaken-yet-again-in-march-sp-case-shiller-index.html

Didn’t we tell you that you shouldn’t rely on Zillow?

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #618 on: May 29, 2019, 02:36:15 PM »
I guess he doesn’t recognized Case-Shiller index but he recognizes Zillow forecast/predictions.

What's the Case-Shiller index drop for Irvine from previous years compared to this year?
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #619 on: May 29, 2019, 02:59:40 PM »
And I’m not using a Zillow forecast.

The percentage drops are based on Trulia data or are you claiming propaganda again?

Case Shiller is a good index but I don’t think you can confine it to Irvine.

Although it looks like it’s leveling off for LA area, it’s doesn’t look like a drastic drop.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #620 on: May 29, 2019, 03:34:38 PM »
Call it what you want. Your using Zillow something. (We all know that)

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #621 on: May 29, 2019, 03:56:51 PM »
Call it what you want. Your using Zillow something. (We all know that)

No. I posted a reference to Zillow when you asked for facts but the data I posted here is from Trulia and it’s historical not predictive.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #622 on: May 29, 2019, 04:04:42 PM »
Call it what you want. Your using Zillow something. (We all know that)

No. I posted a reference to Zillow when you asked for facts but the data I posted here is from Trulia and it’s historical not predictive.

Zillow owns Trulia.

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #623 on: May 29, 2019, 04:07:24 PM »
Everybody is entitled to their own opinion.
But leave me out of your posts. This is the reason why I am responding to you.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2019, 04:41:58 PM by eyephone »

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #624 on: May 29, 2019, 04:12:20 PM »
But you know if you want some action you came to the right place.

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #625 on: May 29, 2019, 04:50:04 PM »

Their silence is interesting.

Quote

Yeah it is interesting to have a life, instead of trolling on forums.  I simply refer to Mety's posts as she/he did a great job of explaining. 
However keep in mind that you continue to imply seasonal changes but we have yet to see actual YoY price changes since slowdown was called less than a year ago.  Furthermore since prices follow volume, one should allow a period of time to let prices adjust to changes in volume since prices do not change immediately.  This is reason for me saying to wait for some time to look at YoY prices.
   
BTW if there is a 5-15% savings as you mentioned on an Irvine house, that could mean 150-200K easily.  I do not understand why you try to minimize that.

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #626 on: May 29, 2019, 05:10:37 PM »
@Meccos: I think we are wasting our time talking to that guy. He drops out names out of no where. It’s not even a debate. Because at the end he will just say I don’t care. To me it’s like a big waste of time.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #627 on: May 29, 2019, 06:03:22 PM »

Their silence is interesting.

Quote

Yeah it is interesting to have a life, instead of trolling on forums.  I simply refer to Mety's posts as she/he did a great job of explaining. 
However keep in mind that you continue to imply seasonal changes but we have yet to see actual YoY price changes since slowdown was called less than a year ago.  Furthermore since prices follow volume, one should allow a period of time to let prices adjust to changes in volume since prices do not change immediately.  This is reason for me saying to wait for some time to look at YoY prices.

So like I said, and which you ridiculed, it is yet to be determined.

Quote
   
BTW if there is a 5-15% savings as you mentioned on an Irvine house, that could mean 150-200K easily.  I do not understand why you try to minimize that.

You are misrepresenting my stance and the median drop which is so far only 4.8%.

For some people, 5% is enough to wait but for others, myself included, it may not be worth it if we found the house we wanted and don’t want to get caught up trying to time the bottom.

I’m not minimizing anything, just pointing out scenarios where waiting may not be an option which you have yet to acknowledge.

Would you wait 1-5 years for a 4.8% drop? Like you said, some people have a life.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #628 on: May 29, 2019, 06:11:20 PM »
And yes, I understand pricing can follow volume but with prices trending back up, what does that mean?

That’s why I asked if I was reading the data wrong or if this was a dead cat bounce because prices should be going lower right?
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #629 on: May 30, 2019, 08:18:32 AM »
But interestingly, you seem to be making your position more clear now. I was asking you multiple times what your prediction was and I never heard a clear answer. Now you are giving us these historical drops % numbers and saying you're not sure until we see even more clearly.

@Mety: I have multiple posts where I talked about the % numbers of historical drops that you must not have read. That's why I asked about the magnitude of this slowdown because if it's within the same margins as previous years, shouldn't that fall into what I called "seasonal"? And yes, I did say I wasn't sure it's *not* seasonal until we see the full season, which by the way, meccos questioned me about:

I can't make any determinations until summer rolls around.

Although the data seems to say this time is different, predictions based on data has not always been right... especially when it comes to Irvine.
Still wondering what you are trying to determine.

Which brings us to this:

Quote
Well, I think meccos was saying we should wait until December yesterday also.

And this:

However keep in mind that you continue to imply seasonal changes but we have yet to see actual YoY price changes since slowdown was called less than a year ago.  Furthermore since prices follow volume, one should allow a period of time to let prices adjust to changes in volume since prices do not change immediately.  This is reason for me saying to wait for some time to look at YoY prices.

So why was I being criticized for not being able to make a determination if this was not seasonal until the end of the season? meccos can wait but I can't?

But I digress.

I think this is a question that should be pretty clear to everyone:

If in December, prices drop like they *seasonally* do (surprise!), what percentage difference from the previous year would we consider this "slowdown" non-seasonal?

And in all fairness, we may not be able to make that determination in December because in the last few years except for 2016, the bottom usually hits a few months after December. But then again, I'm wondering why we have to wait until the 2nd drop to determine the effects because shouldn't that have been felt in the first drop? Or is meccos saying that it will take more than one cycle (season?) to see the impact?

The reason why I said that I have to see what prices are after the summer is because that's when the "slowdown" call was made.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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