Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 48181 times)

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Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #570 on: May 15, 2019, 10:59:27 AM »
9 Bodega Bay got a great deal!
Here's the graph for houses @92602.





I wonder how hard it was to buy 9 Bodega Bay for such a discount.
Perhaps there's more to come since it only closed a week ago.

Offline akkord

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #571 on: May 15, 2019, 11:53:10 AM »
For those posting links of sold homes at significant discounts, any in the sub 900k range, detached condos/homes, 3/2 or bigger, that have sold at a significant discount recently relative to their area?

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #572 on: May 15, 2019, 01:07:25 PM »
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

Offline akkord

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #573 on: May 15, 2019, 01:32:03 PM »
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

I'll use your definition, what is yours of a significant discount?  Meccos had 12% in a previous post, but I'm open. If you want a number let's say 10% price discount from the past year and a half vs the past 3/4 months, is that fair? It's more conservative than Mecco's 12% example. 

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #574 on: May 15, 2019, 02:00:29 PM »
I saw those other Bodega ones but where are the cheaper ones people should be able to buy today?

If it's a real slowdown, shouldn't there be a number of these same models available for less?

Why do you assume there would be a number of these same models out at any given time?  There were a few that sold last year for a high price as demonstrated.  The one that sold this year was significantly discounted and there is one more out right now.  The one currently listed is much more upgraded than any of the previous homes that sold, but is listed at or lower than the model matches that sold in 2018 and has been on the market for 50 days. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Dinuba-92602/home/5771881

Guess what is coming next for this house?  A price adjustment since it has not sold in nearly 50 days.  This will sell for less than the homes that sold in 2018 even though it is a much more upgraded home.  It is just a matter of how much less. 

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #575 on: May 15, 2019, 02:02:08 PM »
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

Everyone will have a different definitions, however I do not think anyone will argue a 12-15% drop in 1 year as demonstrated by the examples above. 

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #576 on: May 15, 2019, 02:16:16 PM »
Does this 2 or 3 homes dropped their price represent the entire Irvine market or homes that are currently listed on the MLS in Irvine?

Hardly, because those two homes were in distress of a divorce sale. It happenned to be on the same street. Maybe Bob and Mary did a switcharoo of partners.

Swinging it.

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #577 on: May 15, 2019, 02:23:34 PM »
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

I'll use your definition, what is yours of a significant discount?  Meccos had 12% in a previous post, but I'm open. If you want a number let's say 10% price discount from the past year and a half vs the past 3/4 months, is that fair? It's more conservative than Mecco's 12% example.

I was talking to everyone not just you, but thanks for answering.

Here are some examples not just limiting to North Park but Irvine area. Please check the price histories. Not all of them are under super recent categories, but the point is the waiting situation instead of buying right away played well between the entire last year and recent.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/110-Confederation-Way-Irvine-CA-92602/25520651_zpid/
This was listed first in 2018 at $980 and finally got sold Feb this year at $808k. You can do the math how much % that is and it's much higher than your 10%. West Irvine is pretty close to NP also.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Keepsake-92618/home/40102842
The buyer would have paid $52k more if bought in Oct. 2018 when first listed. Good thing they waited.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/181-Pathway-92618/home/45377541
$800k to $691k. For real? It was not a short sale either.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/216-Firefly-Irvine-CA-92618/147889373_zpid/
Almost $40k savings? Sure, we can take that. Oh, the interest rate got better also.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/74-Borghese-92618/home/51681127
I saved $270k on this one. Thanks!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Brindisi-92603/home/58555201
Ok, not as much savings, but still $75k reduction sounds good.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/103-Canopy-92603/home/5944496
Almost 10% cuts.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Campanero-E-92620/home/4784525
$900k to $797? Psss..

« Last Edit: May 15, 2019, 02:30:31 PM by Mety »

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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #578 on: May 15, 2019, 02:24:50 PM »
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

Everyone will have a different definitions, however I do not think anyone will argue a 12-15% drop in 1 year as demonstrated by the examples above.

But again, that number might not be much significant drop to IHO. So if that's not agreed upon, I don't think the discussion would work well.

Online irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #579 on: May 15, 2019, 02:36:15 PM »
@Mety:

You should post those in my "Significant Savings" thread.

I don't have time to look through them in detail but I think some of those have a story other than "slowdown".

Keep them coming!
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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #580 on: May 15, 2019, 02:45:43 PM »
@Mety:

You should post those in my "Significant Savings" thread.

I don't have time to look through them in detail but I think some of those have a story other than "slowdown".

Keep them coming!

Sure, I can copy and paste in that thread also. I was just answering akkord since he/she asked.

Online irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #581 on: May 15, 2019, 04:47:17 PM »
Before we discuss any further, I think we need to hear what your definition of "real slowdown" or "significant discount" is.

Everyone will have a different definitions, however I do not think anyone will argue a 12-15% drop in 1 year as demonstrated by the examples above.

But again, that number might not be much significant drop to IHO. So if that's not agreed upon, I don't think the discussion would work well.

I agree. But I don’t think the overall Irvine market has dropped 12-15%.

That’s not what the data says... or am I reading it wrong?
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Offline akkord

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #582 on: May 16, 2019, 08:09:54 AM »
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/110-Confederation-Way-Irvine-CA-92602/25520651_zpid/

This was listed first in 2018 at $980 and finally got sold Feb this year at $808k. You can do the math how much % that is and it's much higher than your 10%. West Irvine is pretty close to NP also.

980k for this is way overpriced especially backing the tollroad, so realistically this would have never sold at 980k.  I've seen 4/3's in West Irvine going at this price point or less.  I actually saw this home on redfin when it was first listed but is a hard pass when backing the tollroad.  Homes near major roadways should always be less than comparable homes farther away in my opinion. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/29-Keepsake-92618/home/40102842
The buyer would have paid $52k more if bought in Oct. 2018 when first listed. Good thing they waited.

Are these comparable homes that sold in 2018 to your above example?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/82-Cienega-92618/home/12253701 800k, but ~200 sf bigger price per sf is cheaper here
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Bell-Chime-92618/home/21928642, 762k, but ~200 sf smaller price per sf is more expensive

Both these homes are <5% sold price diff from your example. 

List price vs sold price isn't an indication IMO since you have some crazy sellers out there.  I could list something at 2mm when it's actually only worth 1mm on the market, does that mean someone saved 50% when they bought at 1mm?  Do you have examples of similar detached homes where the diff in sold prices are 10% or greater?

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Online irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #583 on: May 16, 2019, 09:22:17 AM »
List price vs sold price isn't an indication IMO since you have some crazy sellers out there.  I could list something at 2mm when it's actually only worth 1mm on the market, does that mean someone saved 50% when they bought at 1mm?  Do you have examples of similar detached homes where the diff in sold prices are 10% or greater?

Yes. That's why I asked for model comps in the other thread. I said the same thing, you can't use list vs sale as the actual discount. I did some comparisons of the Laguna Altura listings and those seem to be in line with comps from last year and this year for that area:

https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16867.msg350016.html#msg350016
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Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #584 on: May 16, 2019, 09:30:18 AM »
This is why you should use averages, and not outliers.  So just look at the redfin graph.





prices cratered around the end of 2018, but picked back up. 


I think most people believe that the recession is coming, and to be a bull right now is contrarian.
So that maroon squiggly is probably going down at the end of 2019 to 2020.

 

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