When would be next housing Bottom?

Expect to receive a rebuke from IHO. He?s going to ask you how much % it will fall. And also prepare to back up your idea with graphs or articles. You will have to summerize the article though instead of giving just 2 cents.

All kiddings aside, I think either 2020 or 2024 if the housing doesn?t recover from 2020.
 
I think we all need an ELI5 version of some of these links people post.

And just to clear, I don't need an actual percentage of drop... the reason I asked was to prove a point. If people are going to advise others on what to do, they need to temper it with expectations.

If we are looking at a 20% drop, obviously, it might be better to wait... but if it's only 5-10%, then you need to assess your situation and affordability to see if it's worth waiting or if you do buy now, you don't mind that size of a drop.

I think a few other members here post a link, a copy/paste from that link that's pertinent and then their own opinion of it. To me, that's the most helpful type of post. If the copy/paste and opinion are compelling enough, I'll visit... if not... I saved 5 minutes of my life.
 
Are we talking in Irvine or across US?

I think Irvine was just stay flat for the next 5 to 7 years.  I do think some of the hotter pockets will have a mini crash...price drop of 10 to 20% minimum in the next 3 to 5 years.
 
Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group has agreed to sell a glitzy development site in Beverly Hills, Calif., the latest sign that Chinese companies are bailing out of U.S. real estate after years of loading up on these properties.

A venture between London-based real-estate firm Cain International and Alagem Capital Group has agreed to purchase the eight-acre site, Cain?s chief executive officer, Jonathan Goldstein, said. The buyers have agreed to pay more than $420 million, according to a person familiar with the matter.
 
We had a RE Consulting Group come by the office and give some info from their latest report

2018 expected appreciation 3.6%
2019 expected appreciation 1.5%
2020 expected appreciation -.01%
2021 expected appreciation -3.5%

Wish I had permission to post the entire 50+ page report as there's a great deal to chew on here, but it's a "subscriber only" newsletter.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
We had a RE Consulting Group come by the office and give some info from their latest report

2018 expected appreciation 3.6%
2019 expected appreciation 1.5%
2020 expected appreciation -.01%
2021 expected appreciation -3.5%

Wish I had permission to post the entire 50+ page report as there's a great deal to chew on here, but it's a "subscriber only" newsletter.

Let me guess, in Nov 2019 they'll release a new report that says:
2019 expected appreciation 3.6%
2020 expected appreciation 1.5%
2021 expected appreciation -.01%
2022 expected appreciation -3.5%

Eventually they'll get it right and they'll pull out the one report that was right and call themselves Nostradamus.

 
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

Good to know. Thanks.
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

I am curious as to, if they have any forecast for where rates would be in 2021 to coincide with the price drop? Any of those data presented?
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

how did OC compare nationally?  what were the contributing factors, in their opinion, to the decline?
 
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