Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 15575 times)

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Offline Happiness

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #240 on: December 06, 2018, 05:29:23 PM »
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #241 on: December 06, 2018, 05:31:28 PM »
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I can't claim to be a mainlander but I have worked with quite a few...was in-house at a Chinese startup for awhile.  Have also worked in quite a few case involving EB-5 investment scams and schemes. 

Still SSS

Offline misme

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #242 on: December 06, 2018, 05:58:26 PM »
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I doubt any real mainlanders are on an english language forum.

anyone want to pipe up and prove me wrong?

I get the feeling that most of the Asians on here are actually Asian Americans. (1.5 gen or more) and have a very different point of view than real recent immigrants/expats.







Offline newbieinirvine

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #243 on: December 08, 2018, 08:35:17 PM »
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P

How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

Offline aquabliss

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #244 on: December 09, 2018, 12:06:48 AM »
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I doubt any real mainlanders are on an english language forum.

anyone want to pipe up and prove me wrong?

I get the feeling that most of the Asians on here are actually Asian Americans. (1.5 gen or more) and have a very different point of view than real recent immigrants/expats.

Paging Yaliu...

Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #245 on: December 09, 2018, 07:57:51 AM »
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...

Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..

But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #246 on: December 09, 2018, 09:28:28 AM »
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...

Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..

But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .

Nope. The stock is more of a value play. The P/E is around 8.31 according to yahoo finance.

I wouldn’t bottom fish home builder stocks.


Offline Halos

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #247 on: December 09, 2018, 03:38:16 PM »
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P

How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

Chinese P2P lending then into Bitcoin. Both have imploded, and now you see articles coming out of Seattle, etc how the foreign money has dried up. We're running on fumes at this point.

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #248 on: December 09, 2018, 06:04:47 PM »
How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

It's still legal to transfer money out of china , but it has gotten much more restrictive. Prior to July of 2017, each Chinese person can legally transfer 50k USD every year out of China legally.  Now every transaction over 7k needs to be reported and triggers an automatic audit.
Since 2017, you also have to file extra paperwork in which you have to specify that this fund is for not being used to buy foreign real estate,stock,life insurance etc or face massive fines and have accounts frozen.

Majority of Chinese FCBs use illegal underground money services. The cost is high tho. We've heard as high as 25%.

Most common illegal ways to do it yourself

1) Obtain Chinese Hong Kong status. Hong Kong accounts are much less regulated.
2) Move it bit by bit by involving friends and family. You can still legally move foreign currency in small transaction, up to total 50k a year, to 4 or less foreign account and still avoid an audit. If you have 4 friends/family with US accounts and each of them have 4 friends/family with foreign accounts, you can move 1 million out of china per year. This part is obviously illegal.
3) A lot of Chinese bank issued debit cards that do not have foreign transaction limits. A lot of people buy luxury goods in US and resell or return them for cash.
4) Fly the cash out. The legal limit is 5k USD when you fly into US but people often risk it by putting more cash in checked luggage.

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Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #249 on: December 12, 2018, 02:13:12 AM »
I've mentioned this before but I'm not worried about a lull in Chinese FCBs, Irvine has plenty of other FCBs.

In fact... there is a particular Caucasian demographic that keeps Woodbridge prices amazingly high.

Woodbridge prices are amazingly high compared to? I saw a few in Woodbridge that barely appreciated from 2014.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4-Woodspring-92604/unit-47/home/5510109

Feb 2014 850k bought
Nov 2018 898k sold

The owner probably barely broke even or maybe even took a small loss when you factor in the commission and transaction cost.

Offline shahshah

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #250 on: December 12, 2018, 07:44:51 AM »
this is a poor example. look deeper. i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.

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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #251 on: December 12, 2018, 08:49:21 AM »
This what I would refer to as, using the negatives environments in rates, as it moves higher to negotiate for favorable pricing for buyers. Using to seasonal slow down and national slow down to gain the upper hands on pricing. Using the negativity of owning to get better pricing. Clearly, this buyers know what they are doing.

Congrat!!! The values of Irvine homes are still there. No dooms days scenario here. On the other hands, looks at what happening in the equity market. Large institutions pulling and cashing out in droves. Where are they putting that money for safe keeping?  :)

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #252 on: December 12, 2018, 02:20:52 PM »
This what I would refer to as, using the negatives environments in rates, as it moves higher to negotiate for favorable pricing for buyers. Using to seasonal slow down and national slow down to gain the upper hands on pricing. Using the negativity of owning to get better pricing. Clearly, this buyers know what they are doing.

Im a bit unclear about what you are saying here.   Are you suggesting higher interest rates will put downward pressures on home prices? 
Also what do you mean by "using seasonal slow down and national slowdown to gain upper hands on pricing?"  Are you suggesting the buyer bought during a slow season and when housing is slowing all over the country to get a better deal on this house?
How do you know if the buyer used "negativity of owning" to get better pricing.  Do you know the buyer of that house?


Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #253 on: December 12, 2018, 04:14:50 PM »
this is a poor example. look deeper. i have a friend with three SFR in woodbridge purchased purchase after that in 2016, 2017 and 2017. all of the have appreciated quite well.

I am sure SFR in woodbridge did better than the attached home I posted. But that's the norm everywhere. Woodbridge also has much more attached homes than SFRs. Price of attached homes are not irrelevant.

I was questioning IHO's claim that woodbrige has a particular Caucasian demographic that keeps Woodbridge prices "amazingly high"

Which is why I asked what he was comparing woodbridge to. From what I've seen, Woodbridge has under-performed every surrounding villages except Walnut/El Camino.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #254 on: December 12, 2018, 04:44:50 PM »
This what I would refer to as, using the negatives environments in rates, as it moves higher to negotiate for favorable pricing for buyers. Using to seasonal slow down and national slow down to gain the upper hands on pricing. Using the negativity of owning to get better pricing. Clearly, this buyers know what they are doing.

Im a bit unclear about what you are saying here.   Are you suggesting higher interest rates will put downward pressures on home prices? 
Also what do you mean by "using seasonal slow down and national slowdown to gain upper hands on pricing?"  Are you suggesting the buyer bought during a slow season and when housing is slowing all over the country to get a better deal on this house?
How do you know if the buyer used "negativity of owning" to get better pricing.  Do you know the buyer of that house?

It mean to get what you want for the least competition and rooms for price improvements. Or in your case just wait, until the herds rushing in again and compete for the house that you want.

 

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