Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 28836 times)

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Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #210 on: December 05, 2018, 04:05:40 PM »

Note...I said Japanese immigrants.  Between 1986 and 2016, 194,969 Japanese immigrated to the US.  By comparison, 289,966 Taiwanese, 691,668 South Koreans, and 1,703,930 Mainland Chinese.


So 289k is significant and 198k is not ? It's difficult to frame the discussion with you since you are constantly cherry picking stats.


Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

Not true. The best area of Taipei is Xinyi District. It's also master planned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinyi_District,_Taipei


Hualien is 3 hours outside of Taipei!  That's not a suburb. 


How does that disqualify Hualien exactly? It's a beautiful city with more than 100k people. It's a shame that Taiwan gets reduced to having nothing outside of Taipei.



Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #211 on: December 05, 2018, 04:16:07 PM »

Also...there are 137K Japanese in the Greater LA area...60K Taiwanese.  Considering Japan has 6X the population of Taiwan...Taiwan has 2x the representation of Japan.


Another example where you are cherry picking stats to illustrate your point.

You said you want to talk about Mainland Chinese. Run the numbers using Chinese immigrants in LA and the population of China. That would make them even less relevant than Japan according to your valuation.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #212 on: December 05, 2018, 04:18:49 PM »
Xinyi is the business district...it was redesigned around Taipei 101 but it is hardly seen as a pure residential area.   Of course, that has nothing to do with YangMing Shan or Neihu.   

And again...Xinyi is an urban environment....not comparable to Irvine.

Quote

How does that disqualify Hualien exactly? It's a beautiful city with more than 100k people. It's a shame that Taiwan gets reduced to having nothing outside of Taipei.

Considering you can go from Taipei to Kaoshung in like 5 hours, being 3 hours outside of Taipei does not make Hualian a suburb. 

Greater Taipei has 7 million people...9 million if you include Taoyuan.  That's about 40% of the population of Taiwan.  Taipei is also seen as the cultural, governmental, and technological center of Taiwan.  Raising Hualian as an example would be like saying Yunnan is beautiful and question why people in Beijing or Shanghai wants to move to the US.

Edit:  Hualien is also on the hurricane side of Taiwan...it's why there are very few people living on the eastern side of Taiwan.

« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 04:43:13 PM by Irvinecommuter »

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #213 on: December 05, 2018, 04:26:12 PM »

Also...there are 137K Japanese in the Greater LA area...60K Taiwanese.  Considering Japan has 6X the population of Taiwan...Taiwan has 2x the representation of Japan.


Another example where you are cherry picking stats to illustrate your point.

You said you want to talk about Mainland Chinese. Run the numbers using Chinese immigrants in LA and the population of China. That would make them even less relevant than Japan according to your valuation.

Yeah...I'm not even going to compare immigration policies of PRC and viability of people able to move to that of Japan and Taiwan. 

Also, since the bulk of Japanese immigration was pre-1980s while the bulk of Taiwanese immigration of in the 1980s and 1990s, I am not sure why we are discussing this with respect to recent change in Irvine.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #214 on: December 05, 2018, 04:36:18 PM »
Kenkoko...I am not sure what exactly you are fighting about.  There is a lot of things to love about East Asia (China, Japan, Taiwan, and S.K.) but there are also a lot of issues (most notably pollution, density, weather, and inflexible/outdated education system).   Those issues are what immigrants are trying to get away from.

PRC has its own special set of issues as to why people want to leave there, especially if you have the resources to buy property in the US.

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #215 on: December 05, 2018, 05:02:10 PM »

Are you saying if you were to do the same now, TIC will allow it?

I think they would be much more open to the idea.  Before, it was a fad to them.

Look at the number of Asian restaurants opening up in TIC malls.  Culver Plaza is almost completely Asian, Northpark and Cypress Village are as well.  Weirdly enough, Woodbury is still pretty mixed.

Good points. I think TIC limits what retails to come very conservatively. I wish they accept more boutique shops, but like you said, NP and CV plazas do have those while WB town center has only nationalized ones. Maybe different authorizers?

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #216 on: December 05, 2018, 05:54:17 PM »
Kenkoko...I am not sure what exactly you are fighting about.  There is a lot of things to love about East Asia (China, Japan, Taiwan, and S.K.) but there are also a lot of issues (most notably pollution, density, weather, and inflexible/outdated education system).   Those issues are what immigrants are trying to get away from.

PRC has its own special set of issues as to why people want to leave there, especially if you have the resources to buy property in the US.

Irvinecommuter, I not sure why you think I am fighting. I agree with a lot of stuff that’s being said. I do disagree with using a big blanket statement like using a city to compare to a continent. I also disagree with you cherry-picking data. It’s already difficult to do a fair apple to apple comparison with set premises. It’s impossible when you decide to hand pick this stat but not the other.

I jumped in when IHO was being questioned by others for his take on Irvine only dropping 10-15% and you started listing numbers from surrounding cities showing Irvine being more price resilient. I felt using data from surrounding cities (also Las Vegas and Scottdale) were rather pointless because the demographics are so different from Irvine.

I felt we should be looking at cities with more similar demographics to Irvine and sure enough you see more similarities. You can cherry pick numbers for Irvine and Diamond Bar but even with the cherry-picked math, the downward price resilience in areas like DB/Walnut/Arcadia/etc still more very much mirror Irvine. Much more than MissionV/Aliso/LakeForest/etc.

 
We can at least agree that FCBs are big factor, right? IHO brought up a good question. How do we break down the demographics? It’s rather difficult and any analysis/conclusion will be anecdotal.

First you must decide what “Chinese” includes. For example, I am from Taiwan and my wife is from Hong Kong we are both under the “Chinese” category when it comes to any official stats but that’s hardly accurate for the discussion at hand. I started High School in Arcadia in the early 90s and school statistic would say we have 35% Chinese. But, we barely had 50 students that are really from China. (about 4000 students total)
Non-mainlander behaves drastically different from Mainlander when it comes to real estate.

Non-mainlander mostly came during the 80s,90s, and early 00s. Tends to have roots set down and raised families. Tends to treat Real estate more conservatively and cares about cap rate. Very conservative when it comes to homebuying power. Rarely buying up to LTV limits. Rarely see homes left empty. Very much affective by the state of the US economy. Enters and exits market like other Americans. 

Mainlander mostly came after mid-2000s. Tends to be solo, just wife with kid, no extended family. Tends to treat RE as a safety deposit box caring about liquidity not cap rate. Often see homes left empty. Willing to buy wtf price homes. Not very much affected by the state of the US economy. Enters and exit markets completely different from other Americans.

You can look at different Irvine villages and get somewhat of a feel. Older villages like University Park, Turtle rock you have much more non-mainlander. From about Woodbury on, you get more and more % of mainlanders. Woodbury is famous in Chinese circle as the “mistress village” where Chinese business men stash their concubines.

Up to this point, mainlanders have mostly been great for Irvine real estate. The only downside I can think of is the high prices pushing more non FCBs to buy close or at their financial limits. This and possible mass exit by Mainlanders could be the next instability factor when we do have a downturn.

The subject of the thread is when the next housing bottom would be. I think it’s more and more likely now that we will have a US slowdown that coincided with a China meltdown. The inverted yield curve and the recent china economy numbers are looking bleak.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 05:59:26 PM by Kenkoko »

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #217 on: December 05, 2018, 06:36:36 PM »
I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

 >:D

Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #218 on: December 05, 2018, 07:52:12 PM »
I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

 >:D

#TaiwaneseTalk

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #219 on: December 06, 2018, 08:29:32 AM »
I posted a poll on my FB asking my TW friends to pick the most posh area of Taipei.

So far the return is 47 Xinyi District, 6 YangMing Shan, and 1  Neihu.

 >:D

Again...you are comparing Downtown LA with Beverly Hills or Malibu...completely different areas and lifestyles. 

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #220 on: December 06, 2018, 08:41:45 AM »
Kenkoko:  I was going break down your post but I don't think it would be beneficial. 

Fundamentally, you need to understand that the development that Irvine experienced since 2000 is almost all new homes.  That affects pricing in that new homes are usually 10 to 15% lower than re-sales for a number of reasons.  Irvine has exceeded all median price points for the "Asian" housing markets we have identified other than Arcadia.  That is significant.  Once Irvine "sells out" and becomes a mature market, all you will have left is re-sale and there will be significantly more competition and increased prices. 

The other question is why Chinese/FCB came to Irvine instead of going to traditional Asian pockets...money clearly wasn't the concern so why come to Irvine?  This is where I differ with you on why FCB bought in Irvine....while you think they did to keep their money safe, I believe that they did so that they can bring their families here.  Contrary to your assertion, Stonegate, OH, PP, and BP are all filled with families and not just nuclear families, grandparents as well.  Pass by any of the parks at like 10 am. and you will see a ton of elderly Chinese people talking and doing taichi.  FCB bought houses here because China was beginning to crackdown on certain business practices and Chinese business people were trying to get their family to the US.  They bought the houses not for investment purposes, but to get green cards.  They also put a ton of money down on investment zones for EB-5 purposes. 

As for going forward, I expect a rescission of the US and global markets (can't run bull forever) but I don't expect a huge hit on Irvine housing market.  When the economies recovery, Irvine will be a top destination for Asian buyers looking to for a place to settle down.

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #221 on: December 06, 2018, 08:58:00 AM »
So funny... no one believed in FCBs 10 years ago.

#LegendOfTheFCB
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #222 on: December 06, 2018, 09:00:21 AM »
I've mentioned this before but I'm not worried about a lull in Chinese FCBs, Irvine has plenty of other FCBs.

In fact... there is a particular Caucasian demographic that keeps Woodbridge prices amazingly high.
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Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #223 on: December 06, 2018, 10:14:49 AM »
This is why having a disscussion with you is difficult. You brought up Neihu and YangMing Shan first. YOU called them the ultra posh areas of Taipei.  I was merely following the premises you set.  >:(

You can just do a quick google search. Numerous travel blog/sites called Xinyi the most posh area of Taipei.

Downtown LA is is not very accurate description either. Even Wikipedia called Xinyi the Manhattan of Taiwan. And YangMing Shan is a freaking National Park. Sure there are some nice mansions but not a good comparison to Irvine or Anywhere we talked about.


Just about anyone from Taiwan knows YangMing Shan and Neihu...they are the ultra posh areas of Taipei. 

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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #224 on: December 06, 2018, 10:27:08 AM »
Kenkoko:  I was going break down your post but I don't think it would be beneficial. 

Fundamentally, you need to understand that the development that Irvine experienced since 2000 is almost all new homes.  That affects pricing in that new homes are usually 10 to 15% lower than re-sales for a number of reasons.  Irvine has exceeded all median price points for the "Asian" housing markets we have identified other than Arcadia.  That is significant.  Once Irvine "sells out" and becomes a mature market, all you will have left is re-sale and there will be significantly more competition and increased prices. 

The other question is why Chinese/FCB came to Irvine instead of going to traditional Asian pockets...money clearly wasn't the concern so why come to Irvine?  This is where I differ with you on why FCB bought in Irvine....while you think they did to keep their money safe, I believe that they did so that they can bring their families here.  Contrary to your assertion, Stonegate, OH, PP, and BP are all filled with families and not just nuclear families, grandparents as well.  Pass by any of the parks at like 10 am. and you will see a ton of elderly Chinese people talking and doing taichi.  FCB bought houses here because China was beginning to crackdown on certain business practices and Chinese business people were trying to get their family to the US.  They bought the houses not for investment purposes, but to get green cards.  They also put a ton of money down on investment zones for EB-5 purposes. 

As for going forward, I expect a rescission of the US and global markets (can't run bull forever) but I don't expect a huge hit on Irvine housing market.  When the economies recovery, Irvine will be a top destination for Asian buyers looking to for a place to settle down.

Buying houses in the U.S. gets you green card? I'm asking out of curiosity, not starting an argument.

 

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