Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 8153 times)

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #45 on: November 20, 2018, 10:53:03 AM »
What are you talking about?  Irvine is an excellent housing market in the longterm for both appreciation and holding value.

Talk about shifting the goal posts.  The topic was "this year" and there being "literally no where to hide".

Housing is not a good investment period.  The only good resident real estate investment is multi-unit rental property but you need a lot of capital and know-how to get to a profitable level.

Any asset that is priced right can be a good investment.  Multi-unit is better from the perspective of cashflow, but SFR's can be better for appreciation.  You get lots of overexcited buyers willing to overpay for SFR's, whereas multi-units tend to have rational investor types bidding on them.

Why would anyone want to invest in a single residential home unless you have a ton of time on your hands and have contractor/construction experience and/or connections.  Just go invest in a REIT.

Simple.  The opportunity for higher returns.

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #46 on: November 20, 2018, 10:59:31 AM »
What are you talking about?  Irvine is an excellent housing market in the longterm for both appreciation and holding value.

Talk about shifting the goal posts.  The topic was "this year" and there being "literally no where to hide".

Housing is not a good investment period.  The only good resident real estate investment is multi-unit rental property but you need a lot of capital and know-how to get to a profitable level.

Any asset that is priced right can be a good investment.  Multi-unit is better from the perspective of cashflow, but SFR's can be better for appreciation.  You get lots of overexcited buyers willing to overpay for SFR's, whereas multi-units tend to have rational investor types bidding on them.

Why would anyone want to invest in a single residential home unless you have a ton of time on your hands and have contractor/construction experience and/or connections.  Just go invest in a REIT.

Simple.  The opportunity for higher returns.

Unless you are a flipper or interested in the extreme short term window, housing is not the place to be.

We have had an unprecedented recession followed by unprecedented low interest rates/foreign investments.  Those things happen once in a generation.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #47 on: November 20, 2018, 11:11:31 AM »
What are you talking about?  Irvine is an excellent housing market in the longterm for both appreciation and holding value.

Talk about shifting the goal posts.  The topic was "this year" and there being "literally no where to hide".

Housing is not a good investment period.  The only good resident real estate investment is multi-unit rental property but you need a lot of capital and know-how to get to a profitable level.

Any asset that is priced right can be a good investment.  Multi-unit is better from the perspective of cashflow, but SFR's can be better for appreciation.  You get lots of overexcited buyers willing to overpay for SFR's, whereas multi-units tend to have rational investor types bidding on them.

Why would anyone want to invest in a single residential home unless you have a ton of time on your hands and have contractor/construction experience and/or connections.  Just go invest in a REIT.

Simple.  The opportunity for higher returns.

Unless you are a flipper or interested in the extreme short term window, housing is not the place to be.

We have had an unprecedented recession followed by unprecedented low interest rates/foreign investments.  Those things happen once in a generation.

I agree going forward, but we were talking about the past year.  Flipping isn't even a good idea right now unless you can build in extra cushion for potential downside movements in price.

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #48 on: November 20, 2018, 12:39:19 PM »
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.
#fepo

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #49 on: November 20, 2018, 03:00:37 PM »
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.

I know this was not directed towards me but I think there is no great place to invest in or around OC right now.  Cash flow is horrible everywhere in the OC, but especially in Irvine.  Irvine would be a good investment if you felt appreciation will be strong, but at this point, it doesnt seem like appreciation anywhere will be good.  Considering negative cash flow and opportunity costs and low to negative appreciation, Id rather just put that cash into a high yield CD or savings account. 

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #50 on: November 20, 2018, 03:13:51 PM »
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?

Still waiting for an answer.

I know this was not directed towards me but I think there is no great place to invest in or around OC right now.  Cash flow is horrible everywhere in the OC, but especially in Irvine.  Irvine would be a good investment if you felt appreciation will be strong, but at this point, it doesnt seem like appreciation anywhere will be good.  Considering negative cash flow and opportunity costs and low to negative appreciation, Id rather just put that cash into a high yield CD or savings account.

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

#fepo

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #51 on: November 20, 2018, 03:22:20 PM »

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

I think that it is very difficult to make money on properties in OC.  There are areas like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, or Anaheim that can offer housings that you can buy at low prices, renovate, and re-sell.

Rentals are tough in Irvine because there are a lot of FCBs who bought houses to park money in.  Their hard costs are much lower than anyone with a mortgage.   

Of the places in OC, Irvine is my favorite because of the ever changing demographics and businesses.  10 years ago, Irvine was the classic OC city with chain restaurants and everything closes at 10 p.m.   Now there is a ton of ethnic businesses and a lot of competition where even Irvine Company has to adapt.

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #52 on: November 20, 2018, 04:20:15 PM »

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

I think that it is very difficult to make money on properties in OC.  There are areas like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, or Anaheim that can offer housings that you can buy at low prices, renovate, and re-sell.

Rentals are tough in Irvine because there are a lot of FCBs who bought houses to park money in.  Their hard costs are much lower than anyone with a mortgage.   

Of the places in OC, Irvine is my favorite because of the ever changing demographics and businesses.  10 years ago, Irvine was the classic OC city with chain restaurants and everything closes at 10 p.m.   Now there is a ton of ethnic businesses and a lot of competition where even Irvine Company has to adapt.

I think you can't completely avoid thinking about the investment side even if you are buying a home you yourself will live. It's not smart to buy in areas where it wouldn't appreciate as much when you are spending the same money. Also the reason why it's appreciating is not just because there are FCBs or investors buying at whatever cost. It's because the area is actually a good place to live - good schools, safe neighbors, clean and well organized environment, etc. Irvine does fit into those categories pretty well.

Other OC areas are nice too, but I think the major difference is the access to the freeways. Irvine's access to freeways are incomparable to places like Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo or Mission Viejo. This is where PS is kind of lacking in Irvine-advantage, hence a little cheaper, but at least they've got 133 access. Costa Mesa and Santa Ana have the same advantage of freeways also, but I'm seeing that they are not much cheaper now days that you would just buy in Irvine.

#fepo

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #53 on: November 21, 2018, 06:42:04 AM »

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

I think that it is very difficult to make money on properties in OC.  There are areas like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, or Anaheim that can offer housings that you can buy at low prices, renovate, and re-sell.

Rentals are tough in Irvine because there are a lot of FCBs who bought houses to park money in.  Their hard costs are much lower than anyone with a mortgage.   

Of the places in OC, Irvine is my favorite because of the ever changing demographics and businesses.  10 years ago, Irvine was the classic OC city with chain restaurants and everything closes at 10 p.m.   Now there is a ton of ethnic businesses and a lot of competition where even Irvine Company has to adapt.

I think you can't completely avoid thinking about the investment side even if you are buying a home you yourself will live. It's not smart to buy in areas where it wouldn't appreciate as much when you are spending the same money. Also the reason why it's appreciating is not just because there are FCBs or investors buying at whatever cost. It's because the area is actually a good place to live - good schools, safe neighbors, clean and well organized environment, etc. Irvine does fit into those categories pretty well.

Other OC areas are nice too, but I think the major difference is the access to the freeways. Irvine's access to freeways are incomparable to places like Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo or Mission Viejo. This is where PS is kind of lacking in Irvine-advantage, hence a little cheaper, but at least they've got 133 access. Costa Mesa and Santa Ana have the same advantage of freeways also, but I'm seeing that they are not much cheaper now days that you would just buy in Irvine.



This is what I said 10 years ago. Irvine just has so much more going for it than other OC cities so it makes it resilient.

The central location is huge... first rule of real estate. Sure, neighboring cities also share that trait but not to the extent of the magic 405/5/133/55 that Irvine is in the center of. Close to the beach, close to the snow and close to Disneyland for all those home schooling anti-vaxers (okay... that was a bit polarizing but there is some truth to that). You can go to LA one way or San Diego the other... and the weather is more temperate than most OC cities.

Then you add to that:

- Safety
- Schools
- Shopping
- Restaurants
- Parks
- High ranked university
- Great community college
- Job centers
- Mix of resale and new homes
- Variety of rental homes from apartment lofts to Shady mansions
- Master planned
- And last but not least, multiple pick-up basketball games locations

For those certain people who are emotionally detached from Irvine, they may minimize these benefits, but history favors price stability in Irvine.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline paydawg

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #54 on: November 21, 2018, 09:19:16 AM »

Yes, right now might not be a good time to invest, but I wanted to ask where else other than Irvine would be a better option in OC areas? I'm not saying Irvine is the best of all, but I do think it is more safe and stable option than many other areas.

Also not just for investment purposes, but as where you reside, I would like to hear where would seem like a better option than Irvine. Of course this depends where you work and where your life evolves around, but I'm just curious where other people think is better than Irvine especially in OC.

I think that it is very difficult to make money on properties in OC.  There are areas like Santa Ana, Garden Grove, or Anaheim that can offer housings that you can buy at low prices, renovate, and re-sell.

Rentals are tough in Irvine because there are a lot of FCBs who bought houses to park money in.  Their hard costs are much lower than anyone with a mortgage.   

Of the places in OC, Irvine is my favorite because of the ever changing demographics and businesses.  10 years ago, Irvine was the classic OC city with chain restaurants and everything closes at 10 p.m.   Now there is a ton of ethnic businesses and a lot of competition where even Irvine Company has to adapt.

I think you can't completely avoid thinking about the investment side even if you are buying a home you yourself will live. It's not smart to buy in areas where it wouldn't appreciate as much when you are spending the same money. Also the reason why it's appreciating is not just because there are FCBs or investors buying at whatever cost. It's because the area is actually a good place to live - good schools, safe neighbors, clean and well organized environment, etc. Irvine does fit into those categories pretty well.

Other OC areas are nice too, but I think the major difference is the access to the freeways. Irvine's access to freeways are incomparable to places like Lake Forest, Aliso Viejo or Mission Viejo. This is where PS is kind of lacking in Irvine-advantage, hence a little cheaper, but at least they've got 133 access. Costa Mesa and Santa Ana have the same advantage of freeways also, but I'm seeing that they are not much cheaper now days that you would just buy in Irvine.



This is what I said 10 years ago. Irvine just has so much more going for it than other OC cities so it makes it resilient.

The central location is huge... first rule of real estate. Sure, neighboring cities also share that trait but not to the extent of the magic 405/5/133/55 that Irvine is in the center of. Close to the beach, close to the snow and close to Disneyland for all those home schooling anti-vaxers (okay... that was a bit polarizing but there is some truth to that). You can go to LA one way or San Diego the other... and the weather is more temperate than most OC cities.

Then you add to that:

- Safety
- Schools
- Shopping
- Restaurants
- Parks
- High ranked university
- Great community college
- Job centers
- Mix of resale and new homes
- Variety of rental homes from apartment lofts to Shady mansions
- Master planned
- And last but not least, multiple pick-up basketball games locations

For those certain people who are emotionally detached from Irvine, they may minimize these benefits, but history favors price stability in Irvine.

You forgot easy access/proximity to hospitals and medical offices.  Also, the 'network effect'.  Higher earning/higher-educated families want to be in an area with like-minded families.  Many other parts of the OC have that as well, but with some riff-raff built in.  There's comfort in knowing you're spending more money to live in Irvine and that others have to do the same. 
Thanks in advance for the 'thanks'!!

Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #55 on: November 21, 2018, 11:36:05 AM »

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #56 on: November 21, 2018, 12:02:29 PM »
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
www.loansbyjw.com

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #57 on: November 21, 2018, 12:21:34 PM »
Higher earning/higher-educated families want to be in an area with like-minded families.

This is probably we have such extreme white flight out of Irvine since 1980.

White population % - 87.8% (1980)   77.9%(1990)   61.1% (2000)   50.5%(2010)

My mom recently showed me an article saying at the current pace, Irvine will be 65% Asian in 2030. That's higher than San Gabriel/ Monterey Park/ Temple City/Arcadia. Not saying it's good or bad. But Irvine will look completely different in 10 years.

Offline zubs

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #58 on: November 21, 2018, 12:27:08 PM »
Totally

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #59 on: November 21, 2018, 12:41:21 PM »
zubs don’t live in Irvine?
#fepo

 

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