Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 53170 times)

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Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #795 on: August 19, 2019, 12:03:13 PM »
@meccos:  Your math is getting worse.

LOL.  You still dont know why I called you a simpleton huh?  Hint:  has to do with YOUR math.

Sure. Show me then.

People who resort to name calling usually do so because they can’t back up their posts.

You tend to use the extreme numbers rather than averages that reflect the actual reality.

Rather than factoring multiple things and not just the data seems more like a simpleton approach to me.

Me calling you a simpleton has nothing to do with the numbers I use (although the number I used was literally the median price drop taken from trulia), but rather your inability to do simple analysis to back your points.  Rather than trying to obscure your shortcoming with inaccurate claims about me, perhaps you should review your own statements first.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #796 on: August 19, 2019, 01:12:49 PM »
@meccos:  Your math is getting worse.

LOL.  You still dont know why I called you a simpleton huh?  Hint:  has to do with YOUR math.

Sure. Show me then.

People who resort to name calling usually do so because they can’t back up their posts.

You tend to use the extreme numbers rather than averages that reflect the actual reality.

Rather than factoring multiple things and not just the data seems more like a simpleton approach to me.

Me calling you a simpleton has nothing to do with the numbers I use (although the number I used was literally the median price drop taken from trulia), but rather your inability to do simple analysis to back your points.  Rather than trying to obscure your shortcoming with inaccurate claims about me, perhaps you should review your own statements first.

Yawn.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #797 on: August 19, 2019, 01:37:24 PM »
@meccos:  Your math is getting worse.

LOL.  You still dont know why I called you a simpleton huh?  Hint:  has to do with YOUR math.

Sure. Show me then.

People who resort to name calling usually do so because they can’t back up their posts.

You tend to use the extreme numbers rather than averages that reflect the actual reality.

Rather than factoring multiple things and not just the data seems more like a simpleton approach to me.

Me calling you a simpleton has nothing to do with the numbers I use (although the number I used was literally the median price drop taken from trulia), but rather your inability to do simple analysis to back your points.  Rather than trying to obscure your shortcoming with inaccurate claims about me, perhaps you should review your own statements first.

I agree his counter arguments are not that strong. It’s like trolling at it’s best.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #798 on: August 19, 2019, 03:36:30 PM »
I agree his counter arguments are not that strong. It’s like trolling at it’s best.

You still haven't given your explanation why if volume slowed so much, prices are still high.

Someone says lag... but volume has reportedly slowed since March 2018... that's some lag.

What do you think?
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Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #799 on: August 19, 2019, 04:08:15 PM »
I agree his counter arguments are not that strong. It’s like trolling at it’s best.

You still haven't given your explanation why if volume slowed so much, prices are still high.

Someone says lag... but volume has reportedly slowed since March 2018... that's some lag.

What do you think?

Fox Business News Article: Southern California home sales see record drop in prices, Hamptons not far behind

According to recent research from data analytics company CoreLogic, about 20,790 new homes and condos were sold during the month of June in San Diego, Los Angeles, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. That is a decline of 6.9 percent from the month prior and a drop of 8.8 percent from the same period last year.

New home sales in the Southern California counties notched their weakest June since 2014.

“Despite … a healthy economic backdrop, the market was sluggish, suggesting many would-be buyers remained priced out or concerned about buying near a possible price peak,” Andrew LePage, a CoreLogic analyst, said in a statement.

New York and California are two states where experts have said residents are looking to leave as their tax obligations mount. New Yorkers have favored the sunnier climate in Florida, while Californians have headed to Texas and Nevada.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/southern-california-home-sales-drop


My comment: As I stated before the Salt cap. Thearticle mentioned people are concerned buying during a possible price peak, according to CoreLogic analyst.

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #800 on: August 19, 2019, 05:31:24 PM »
That doesn’t answer my question but I appreciate the post.
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Offline Halos

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #801 on: August 28, 2019, 12:04:45 AM »
Irvine bottom in about 2 years according to this expert:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cwXifDaCjE

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #802 on: August 28, 2019, 10:02:09 AM »
That’s what they said in 2016, and then 2017, and then 2018, now in 2019 they said in two years. Ok great!

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #803 on: August 28, 2019, 02:11:58 PM »
Irvine bottom in about 2 years according to this expert:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cwXifDaCjE

Bottom in 2 years and another record high in around 4 years?  ;D

Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #804 on: August 29, 2019, 08:46:31 AM »
Irvine bottom in about 2 years according to this expert:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cwXifDaCjE

Bottom in 2 years and another record high in around 4 years?  ;D


Record highs are built in by default because money becomes cheaper and cheaper every year.  Hence price drops are actually more significant than price increases. 

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #805 on: August 30, 2019, 03:22:11 PM »
This is true, but you are talking about possible paper loses.  Purchasing a primary residence for the longer term tends to be much more than a mathematical investment return project for just about every buyer.  The reality is if someone who buys a good property in the Irvine/Tustin Ranch and lives in the home for 7-10 years while most certainly be able to sell their home for more than what they bought it for mainly because the inventory of new homes (today's shadow inventory) will shrink close to zero in that time (you might have some Great Park homes out there).

I get what you're saying, but paper losses are still losses.  If they have a sudden need to sell or move due to job loss, health scare, or divorce, they will have to bring money to closing.

Also regarding Irvine's "shadow inventory" of new homes, I know that is the prevailing wisdom around here, but I don't buy it.  Part of the desirability of Irvine is the ability to buy a new home.  Once new homes stop being built, that part of Irvine's desirability will go away and the market will adjust.  At that time, it will be just like any number of other non-coastal cities in OC that are built out.

And a wise man once said this:

A house is quite possibly the best investment there is, assuming you can buy in a high demand, growing area like SoCal.  It's inflation protected, pays a huge dividend by providing a place to live, and the tax benefits are insanely good.

On top of that you can be completely uneducated about investing and still benefit from this great investment.  Stocks and rentals take a certain amount of education and financial savvy that not everybody is cut out for.  The benefits and risks of owning a primary residence can be understood by just about anybody.

So while I'm not recommending people buy now or to buy just to buy, depending on your situation, owning a home, even if it cost more than renting, could be beneficial whether prices are dropping or rising.

I'll use my own stupidity to illustrate this, we bought in 2005/06 near the height of the bubble, I guess you could even call us a knife catcher. We sold a few years later (for about 4.5% less than what we bought it for) but had we stayed for just a few more years, we could have sold for 10-20% more than our purchase price. And, had we decided to purchase instead of renting a few years (we did the same expense math and it was cheaper to rent), that property would also have risen in value.

Wise men say
Only fools rush in
   -Elvis Presley (The King)

I also bought my first place in 2006 and yes, by holding on for 11 years, I was able to recoup most of what I paid.  Yet, it would have been better to rent during that time.  Renting would have allowed us to save more money and not have the stress and hassle of a depreciating asset that eventually I needed to rent out and landlord.

Our next purchase was in 2010 and that was a much better time to buy when rents were more than the carrying costs of our new house.

I agree everybody should also do what's in the best interests of their personal situation, but it's not advisable to ignore math and market conditions when you buy.  If prices, interest rates, and rents are all falling, it makes absolutely no sense to rush in to buying, especially if you are a first time buyer.  Take your time (several years if necessary), and make a purchase you will be 100% satisfied with, both in terms of a place to live and in terms of the price you paid.

Renting has a lot of downsides:
 - Can't customize the home / yard as much as you'd like
 - At the landlord's mercy for home repairs and certain appliance repairs
 - Rent might increase dramatically at the end of your lease
 - Owner might decline to renew lease (owner moves in, sells property, etc.)

Trulia shows that rents are now declining in Irvine, so this isn't much of a risk.  If they do try to raise it, you can always move to another place for cheaper, offsetting the cost of the move. 

Sensible landlords will respond to rental comps if you present them, and if you are a good tenant that they want to keep.  Most will meet your terms to avoid a costly turnover.

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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #806 on: September 03, 2019, 02:22:21 PM »
Unlike most people here, I don't know if Irvine will ever be fully built out. What do you guys think they're going to do with all those empty spaces all the way up to Laguna? There are also so much farm fields that can be converted into homes like East Wood Village.

Even if it's fully built out, I doubt it will ever be like the other non-coastal OC areas. Irvine will always be different from Tustin, Santa Ana, Aliso Viejo, or even Baker Ranch. Nothing wrong with those cities, but Irvine is just a different city. It's a family driven city. Newly married to growing families come to Irvine. That's the main difference from cities like Costa Mesa or Corona Del Mar. Irvine also has pros of the location being close to 405 and 5 freeways, highly rated schools, selective franchise/stores in plazas for safety, numerous activities (free or paid) for kids and families, keeping it clean with HOA and so much more to list are some things that Irvine sets apart from surrounding cities. Not to mention cops are chasing away homeless people (not saying this is good) to have a good reputation of the city itself for higher RE price values.

I'm not really saying Irvine is better. I myself don't like how Irvine keeps only typical franchise in plazas and nothing is open after 9pm. It's boring, but it's got its own value to differ from other cities that attract people to keep coming regardless of being fully built out or not.

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #807 on: September 03, 2019, 02:36:20 PM »
Unlike most people here, I don't know if Irvine will ever be fully built out. What do you guys think they're going to do with all those empty spaces all the way up to Laguna? There are also so much farm fields that can be converted into homes like East Wood Villages.

Even if it's fully built out, I doubt it will ever be like the other non-coastal OC areas. Irvine will always be different from Tustin, Santa Ana, Aliso Viejo, or even Baker Ranch. Nothing wrong with those cities, but Irvine is just a different city. It's a family driven city. Newly married to growing families come to Irvine. That's the main difference from cities like Costa Mesa or Corona Del Mar. Irvine also has pros of the location being close to 405 and 5 freeways, highly rated schools, selective franchise/stores in plazas for safety, numerous activities (free or paid) for kids and families, keeping it clean with HOA and so much more to list are some things that Irvine sets apart from surrounding cities. Not to mention cops are chasing away homeless people (not saying this is good) to have a good reputation of the city itself for higher RE price values.

I have friends who fall into different categories when it comes to Irvine. Most love it. They've even left Irvine to see how it is elsewhere but came back. Several have grown up in Irvine and want their kids to do the same. There are a few who don't want to live in Irvine but I consider that a "them" problem :) .

Quote
I'm not really saying Irvine is better. I myself don't like how Irvine keeps only typical franchise in plazas and nothing is open after 9pm. It's boring, but it's got its own value to differ from other cities that attract people to keep coming regardless of being fully built out or not.

That's changing. Many business in DJ are open late (the tofu place used to be 24 hours) and even the TIC centers have non-franchise places that do quite well. Went to Pick Up Stix off Alton last week (they closed the one in Quail Hill) and the Omomo line was ridiculous... and they opened some new mango dessert place from Hong Kong (Hui Lan Shan?) and that line was all the way down to CVS.

The Great Park is still quite a ways from being finished and there is still that land south and east of the Spectrum so yeah... it will be a while before Irvine runs out of new homes. And if prices "crash", builders will just hit pause (I was told they never did that... but they did during the last crash) and keep Irvine values high.
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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #808 on: September 03, 2019, 03:15:14 PM »
Unlike most people here, I don't know if Irvine will ever be fully built out. What do you guys think they're going to do with all those empty spaces all the way up to Laguna? There are also so much farm fields that can be converted into homes like East Wood Villages.

Even if it's fully built out, I doubt it will ever be like the other non-coastal OC areas. Irvine will always be different from Tustin, Santa Ana, Aliso Viejo, or even Baker Ranch. Nothing wrong with those cities, but Irvine is just a different city. It's a family driven city. Newly married to growing families come to Irvine. That's the main difference from cities like Costa Mesa or Corona Del Mar. Irvine also has pros of the location being close to 405 and 5 freeways, highly rated schools, selective franchise/stores in plazas for safety, numerous activities (free or paid) for kids and families, keeping it clean with HOA and so much more to list are some things that Irvine sets apart from surrounding cities. Not to mention cops are chasing away homeless people (not saying this is good) to have a good reputation of the city itself for higher RE price values.

I have friends who fall into different categories when it comes to Irvine. Most love it. They've even left Irvine to see how it is elsewhere but came back. Several have grown up in Irvine and want their kids to do the same. There are a few who don't want to live in Irvine but I consider that a "them" problem :) .

Quote
I'm not really saying Irvine is better. I myself don't like how Irvine keeps only typical franchise in plazas and nothing is open after 9pm. It's boring, but it's got its own value to differ from other cities that attract people to keep coming regardless of being fully built out or not.

That's changing. Many business in DJ are open late (the tofu place used to be 24 hours) and even the TIC centers have non-franchise places that do quite well. Went to Pick Up Stix off Alton last week (they closed the one in Quail Hill) and the Omomo line was ridiculous... and they opened some new mango dessert place from Hong Kong (Hui Lan Shan?) and that line was all the way down to CVS.

The Great Park is still quite a ways from being finished and there is still that land south and east of the Spectrum so yeah... it will be a while before Irvine runs out of new homes. And if prices "crash", builders will just hit pause (I was told they never did that... but they did during the last crash) and keep Irvine values high.

I think TIC has done some homework to accept those businesses. They probably chose ones that could benefit them either financially or culturally.

Zion Market at Irvine blvd also has some Korean franchises now and the line/wait is pretty long. Kitakana Ramen is also open at that Kang Ho Dong mall.

We need more burger places... Yeah, I'm a burger person. I'm just waiting for GP to have Shake Shack and Blue Bottle Coffee. Come on, you can do it, FivePoint!

Offline akkord

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #809 on: September 03, 2019, 03:35:42 PM »
We need more burger places... Yeah, I'm a burger person. I'm just waiting for GP to have Shake Shack and Blue Bottle Coffee. Come on, you can do it, FivePoint!

There's a lot of burger places in Irvine that arent your normal fastfood chains like Five Guys, Habit, McDs, In N Out, etc.

Burger Lounge (highly recommended if you like those crisp patties which I do, occasionally want)
The Cut (also highly recommended, wasn't a fan of their brunch when we showed up one time, didn't know they had a brunch only menu)
BurntZilla (they got decent sliders, little pricey though)
The Counter (Not a huge fan, but occasionally go when I have a bogo coupon)
The Stand (Not a fan)
Mooyah (Not a fan, I don't even go with a bogo coupon)

Pretty close to Irvine
Peter's Gourmade Grill (Better when it was at the side of a gas station, haven't been in a few years now)
Hopdaddy (never been, but a coworker loves this place)

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