Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 7689 times)

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Offline meccos12

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #30 on: November 19, 2018, 02:58:00 PM »
long term appreciation is assured.

You mean inflation?   :o

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #31 on: November 19, 2018, 03:26:06 PM »
long term appreciation is assured.

You mean inflation?   :o

Short term you might have high blood pressure or an ulcer. due to the decreasing price

(Also, you might say to yourself maybe I should of waited). I am still seeing the price drops throughout the US.

That’s like saying. If you buy a house it should go up in 50 years. (Come on!) lol


Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #32 on: November 19, 2018, 03:29:06 PM »
I would say that you should not buy a house for investment purposes but you can buy it as a hedge against inflation.  You will always need somewhere to live so buying a house now will help you not have to buy or rent one in the future. 

Question is whether you can make more by investing the funds elsewhere.  I am more conservative so home is first priority and then investment.

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #33 on: November 19, 2018, 03:40:23 PM »
I would say that you should not buy a house for investment purposes but you can buy it as a hedge against inflation.  You will always need somewhere to live so buying a house now will help you not have to buy or rent one in the future. 

Question is whether you can make more by investing the funds elsewhere.  I am more conservative so home is first priority and then investment.

I agree with this, but it just sucks if your home value goes down. When selling, hopefully it doesn’t overlap with the recession time so the inflation/appreciated value will stay.
#fepo

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #34 on: November 19, 2018, 03:45:51 PM »
I would say that you should not buy a house for investment purposes but you can buy it as a hedge against inflation.  You will always need somewhere to live so buying a house now will help you not have to buy or rent one in the future. 

Question is whether you can make more by investing the funds elsewhere.  I am more conservative so home is first priority and then investment.

I agree with this, but it just sucks if your home value goes down. When selling, hopefully it doesn’t overlap with the recession time so the inflation/appreciated value will stay.

Recipe for recession. Yo
Stock market down, housing down...

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #35 on: November 19, 2018, 03:52:04 PM »
I would say that you should not buy a house for investment purposes but you can buy it as a hedge against inflation.  You will always need somewhere to live so buying a house now will help you not have to buy or rent one in the future. 

Question is whether you can make more by investing the funds elsewhere.  I am more conservative so home is first priority and then investment.

I agree with this, but it just sucks if your home value goes down. When selling, hopefully it doesn’t overlap with the recession time so the inflation/appreciated value will stay.

Recipe for recession. Yo
Stock market down, housing down...

Yeah...no real good places to park investments if you are going through economic downturn (unless you are a shortseller).   But in a bad economy, more value is placed on things that can be used rather than something abstract.   

Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #36 on: November 19, 2018, 06:46:37 PM »
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?

Only thing holding up is high yield loan funds - but for  how long , let’s see

The problem is with investment horizons

When you gamble or say bet on a race horse , there is a set start and end point . You may use an analytical framework to use for betting but ultimately it is a discrete event that ends and you lose/win whatever you are supposed to and walk away .


When you invest , you are in a continuous time frame . There is no end point . When your investment goes down, you think maybe I will hold it just a little bit longer and your point of exit keeps shifting and shifting and shifting, leading to constant anguish .  Truly long investment horizons are a luxury only the very few have.

This is why when going into an investment or even when you are about to buy a House — key to practice and rehearse your reaction function before hand — will I still be happy if this house were to be marked down by 5-10 percent within an year or two even though I don’t really need to sell it ? If the answer is no , then don’t buy .

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #37 on: November 19, 2018, 06:52:55 PM »
Add crypto to the list :o

This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?

Only thing holding up is high yield loan funds - but for  how long , let’s see

The problem is with investment horizons

When you gamble or say bet on a race horse , there is a set start and end point . You may use an analytical framework to use for betting but ultimately it is a discrete event that ends and you lose/win whatever you are supposed to and walk away .


When you invest , you are in a continuous time frame . There is no end point . When your investment goes down, you think maybe I will hold it just a little bit longer and your point of exit keeps shifting and shifting and shifting, leading to constant anguish .  Truly long investment horizons are a luxury only the very few have.

This is why when going into an investment or even when you are about to buy a House — key to practice and rehearse your reaction function before hand — will I still be happy if this house were to be marked down by 5-10 percent within an year or two even though I don’t really need to sell it ? If the answer is no , then don’t buy .

Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #38 on: November 19, 2018, 07:11:18 PM »
Add crypto to the list :o

This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide


Ha , true that . But notice I said “investors “ . Crypto is the biggest mainstream scam out there right now !

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #39 on: November 20, 2018, 09:58:29 AM »
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #40 on: November 20, 2018, 10:13:07 AM »
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #41 on: November 20, 2018, 10:29:55 AM »
That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #42 on: November 20, 2018, 10:31:11 AM »
This year has been a real dog if you are an investor — literally no place to hide

Stocks ?
Government bonds ?
Corporate bonds ?
Junk bonds ?
Housing ?


Housing is very localized, even within Orange County.  Some cities have experienced surprisingly strong appreciation this year.  Based on the comments here, it sounds as if Irvine is not one of them.

That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.  Overall, the market is down and has been down for a few months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinefeeney/2018/11/15/real-estate-markets-cooling-across-the-country-and-its-not-just-the-winter-effect/#2903be1e172b

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

Where do you think is a better investment in OC or nearby areas?
#fepo

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #43 on: November 20, 2018, 10:34:37 AM »
That is because Irvine has been going strong for like 10 years now...some of the other markets are just catching up.  They are also usually the area of lesser desirability but better affordability.

But how can this be if there is "literally no place to hide"?

It's just an example of how too much pro-Irvine bias clouds judgement on what constitutes a good investment.

What are you talking about?  Irvine is an excellent housing market in the longterm for both appreciation and holding value.  It is on a ten-year run with value probably doubling during that period of time.  There are markets that just started their run because people have been pushed into those areas but those areas will have very short runs and most likely to suffer depreciation.

Housing is not a good investment period.  The only good resident real estate investment is multi-unit rental property but you need a lot of capital and know-how to get to a profitable level.  Why would anyone want to invest in a single residential home unless you have a ton of time on your hands and have contractor/construction experience and/or connections.  Just go invest in a REIT.

Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #44 on: November 20, 2018, 10:51:49 AM »
If you an investor , yes housing is negative net P&L on the year even in Irvine — in broad beta terms given the averages being talked about here

we all know there are exceptions .

 

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