Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 48645 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #270 on: December 27, 2018, 11:28:16 AM »
I know your data would indicate otherwise but it really did not seem to us that Woodbridge was trading at any sort of premium.

It's okay, I'm not going to be hard on you about what the data says because I do understand that personal experience can have different results.

That's actually why I looked it up because I thought what I saw may have been different from what the market was doing. Some of Westpark I SFRs were built around the same time as Woodbridge's newer hoods, and from what I saw, those same floorplans tend to trade higher for Woodbridge. As I've said, it depends on what stock you are looking for and that usually defines your perception of what pricing is.
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Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #271 on: December 28, 2018, 12:55:00 PM »
Prices in Quail Hill has dropped a lot in the past 6 months. This one just closed at 910k. The exact same model were closing at 980k - 1M just 6 months ago.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/103-Canopy-92603/home/5944496


Offline eyephone

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #272 on: December 28, 2018, 01:10:23 PM »
Prices in Quail Hill has dropped a lot in the past 6 months. This one just closed at 910k. The exact same model were closing at 980k - 1M just 6 months ago.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/103-Canopy-92603/home/5944496

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Offline OCAgentGold

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #273 on: January 20, 2019, 01:35:43 PM »
Its here. All the homebuilders have had massive layoffs..... 

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #274 on: January 20, 2019, 05:27:38 PM »
Wow..that Quail Hill condo that sold at 910k was such a bargain i would think. That detached condo had so many nice upgrades.  I am thinking that owner put on market kinda late in the summer cycle.  I just hope that that price of 910k is an anomaly and not a trend.

Offline shahshah

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #275 on: January 20, 2019, 06:13:48 PM »
I'm seeing mostly 850k-1100k+ home on the market at present on Redfin for 3bd and 4bd SFR detached resale market not backing to a main road or less than 4000 sqft lot size. Of course outliners in the east part of El camino. That does not seem like any kind of drop off to me?

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #276 on: January 20, 2019, 06:44:29 PM »
Wow..that Quail Hill condo that sold at 910k was such a bargain i would think. That detached condo had so many nice upgrades.  I am thinking that owner put on market kinda late in the summer cycle.  I just hope that that price of 910k is an anomaly and not a trend.

 Been seeing this kind of bargain at different villages this past month.

Cypress Village detached condo sold for 930k. Previous comps were over 1.05mil just 3-4 months ago
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Rockcress-92618/home/112722299#overview

Northpark single story SFR sold for 910k. Previous comps were over 1mil.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Saintsbury-92602/home/5858183#overview

University Park SFR sold for 900k. Previous comp was 980k in september/october
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4601-Green-Tree-Ln-92612/home/4702678#overview

Woodbury detached condo sold for 900k.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Great-Lawn-92620/home/7210911

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Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #277 on: January 20, 2019, 06:48:16 PM »
I'm seeing mostly 850k-1100k+ home on the market at present on Redfin for 3bd and 4bd SFR detached resale market not backing to a main road or less than 4000 sqft lot size. Of course outliners in the east part of El camino. That does not seem like any kind of drop off to me?

Because you are looking at the listing prices of unsold homes instead of sold prices. High listing prices from unrealistic sellers are not good indicators of where the market is at.

Just look at the 910k sold home in Quail Hill. The listing price was 1.07 mil  :o

Offline OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #278 on: April 13, 2019, 10:21:22 PM »
Reviving the thread. Any new predictions?

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #279 on: April 13, 2019, 10:56:21 PM »
Reviving the thread. Any new predictions?

Prices are still down compared to last year's high.
Biggest change is inventory level. April 2018 we had 445 listing. We have 1066 today.
I think we will continue to trend lower.


Offline OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #280 on: April 14, 2019, 06:22:42 AM »
Yup.. Also, look at the inventory of other cities.. Seattle is +130% more inventory

Offline lnc

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #281 on: April 14, 2019, 03:57:25 PM »
Yes, Seattle’s inventory is up 136% from a year ago and the sales is down 7.8%.  Sounds really really bad but if we look closely to the data, the inventory level is still only 2 month of supply.

I believe the overall housing market only cools down from a really hot to a more neutral market.

Look, the economy is still ok, unemployment is at historically low, mortgage rate are dropping back and we have an epic housing shortage going on, I just don’t think there’s much a chance of a significant housing downturn ahead. 

Offline OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #282 on: April 14, 2019, 04:41:56 PM »
Wait couple years

Offline Panda

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #283 on: April 14, 2019, 06:12:11 PM »
Hoping we dont see a crash in the oc housing but a slow decline like 1989-1993, similar to that of 2019-2023.

this is the time frame i was talking about before that there is hurry for the buyers.....

the marker will shift to the buyer's market in irvine and the deal will get only sweeter as you wait. this is the time for buyers to come out and look for deals. again, there is no rush... and the rates will continue to fall... if you are lucky, the 10 year may even fall below 1.6%. Soon it will be the buyers who will shine in Irvine as they will regain control.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2019, 06:26:55 PM by Panda »
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Offline OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #284 on: April 14, 2019, 07:32:39 PM »
Which places do you expect the crash to be in?

 

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