Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 7695 times)

eyephone and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Irvinecommuter

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 563
  • -Received: 464
  • Posts: 4516
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #240 on: December 06, 2018, 04:55:58 PM »
Hey guys, no disrespect, but you guys can text each other about Taiwanese cities. Let's stay with Irvine and maybe OC areas in this thread. There were some interesting insight from you guys about FCBs.

Do you really think FCBs will have that much impact on RE market? They certainly did in the past by buying many properties, but I'm talking about from now on going forward. If they sell en masse in a future, do you think that will cause the price drop significantly? OR if they do not sell, do you think that will keep the market going up each year?

I apologize. Taiwan is where I grew up and still has a lot of emotional attachment to. Just got all worked up when I felt my hometown was being misrepresented, especially by someone claiming to be from there.

I think if we just have a China meltdown, you would barely notice it. We have enough demand from non Chinese FCBs to absorb Chinese FCBs dumping.
If we have a US slowdown that is timed perfectly with China meltdown, you could see a sizable short term down. A lot homes bought by these Chinese FCBs over a decade could hit the market in a very short period of time. That'd be a good buying opportunity.

Hey...I don't need to claim to be from there.  I am from there. 

Offline Happiness

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 353
  • -Received: 295
  • Posts: 1456
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #241 on: December 06, 2018, 05:29:23 PM »
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

Offline Irvinecommuter

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 563
  • -Received: 464
  • Posts: 4516
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #242 on: December 06, 2018, 05:31:28 PM »
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I can't claim to be a mainlander but I have worked with quite a few...was in-house at a Chinese startup for awhile.  Have also worked in quite a few case involving EB-5 investment scams and schemes. 

Still SSS

Offline misme

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 17
  • -Received: 19
  • Posts: 75
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #243 on: December 06, 2018, 05:58:26 PM »
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I doubt any real mainlanders are on an english language forum.

anyone want to pipe up and prove me wrong?

I get the feeling that most of the Asians on here are actually Asian Americans. (1.5 gen or more) and have a very different point of view than real recent immigrants/expats.







Offline newbieinirvine

  • Newbie
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 7
  • -Received: 0
  • Posts: 5
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #244 on: Yesterday at 08:35:17 PM »
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P

How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

Offline aquabliss

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 163
  • -Received: 647
  • Posts: 3391
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #245 on: Today at 12:06:48 AM »
While I value the observations and opinions of the members of this board, is all we have here Taiwanese and other people speculating about the motivations of mainland China home buyers? Don't we have any real mainlanders here who would like to chime in?

I doubt any real mainlanders are on an english language forum.

anyone want to pipe up and prove me wrong?

I get the feeling that most of the Asians on here are actually Asian Americans. (1.5 gen or more) and have a very different point of view than real recent immigrants/expats.

Paging Yaliu...

Offline fortune11

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 154
  • -Received: 180
  • Posts: 1472
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #246 on: Today at 07:57:51 AM »
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...

Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..

But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .

Online eyephone

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 283
  • -Received: 552
  • Posts: 8920
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #247 on: Today at 09:28:28 AM »
So much for the theory that housing is not a leading indicator ...

Housing stocks moved first , housing volumes moved first (as correctly pointed out by many others on this forum ) earlier this year ..

But seeing the recent price action in toll brothers stock (outperformed the market now , despite the bad numbers ) , we may be bottoming out here on a forward looking basis .

Nope. The stock is more of a value play. The P/E is around 8.31 according to yahoo finance.

I wouldn’t bottom fish home builder stocks.


Offline Halos

  • Tourist
  • *
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 0
  • -Received: 6
  • Posts: 71
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #248 on: Today at 03:38:16 PM »
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P

How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

Chinese P2P lending then into Bitcoin. Both have imploded, and now you see articles coming out of Seattle, etc how the foreign money has dried up. We're running on fumes at this point.

Online Kenkoko

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 27
  • -Received: 39
  • Posts: 172
Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #249 on: Today at 06:04:47 PM »
How are they getting the cash into the country (assuming they paid all-cash)?

It's still legal to transfer money out of china , but it has gotten much more restrictive. Prior to July of 2017, each Chinese person can legally transfer 50k USD every year out of China legally.  Now every transaction over 7k needs to be reported and triggers an automatic audit.
Since 2017, you also have to file extra paperwork in which you have to specify that this fund is for not being used to buy foreign real estate,stock,life insurance etc or face massive fines and have accounts frozen.

Majority of Chinese FCBs use illegal underground money services. The cost is high tho. We've heard as high as 25%.

Most common illegal ways to do it yourself

1) Obtain Chinese Hong Kong status. Hong Kong accounts are much less regulated.
2) Move it bit by bit by involving friends and family. You can still legally move foreign currency in small transaction, up to total 50k a year, to 4 or less foreign account and still avoid an audit. If you have 4 friends/family with US accounts and each of them have 4 friends/family with foreign accounts, you can move 1 million out of china per year. This part is obviously illegal.
3) A lot of Chinese bank issued debit cards that do not have foreign transaction limits. A lot of people buy luxury goods in US and resell or return them for cash.
4) Fly the cash out. The legal limit is 5k USD when you fly into US but people often risk it by putting more cash in checked luggage.

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Related Links

Recent Posts