Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 7709 times)

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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2018, 05:17:53 PM »
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2018, 06:39:54 PM »
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

Good to know. Thanks.

Online OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2018, 07:02:32 PM »
If OC is just 3%, Irvine would be 0.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2018, 07:44:54 PM »
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

I am curious as to, if they have any forecast for where rates would be in 2021 to coincide with the price drop? Any of those data presented?

Offline Kings

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #19 on: November 17, 2018, 07:04:05 AM »
This was OC only. Irvine specific data is a bit tough since it's influenced by new construction more than other areas.

If a company forecasts 3.6 then adjusts forecasts, it's a matter of new data. This particular company is national in it's scope and would not have the clients they do if they constantly monkeyed with the numbers. No one can predict the future, but their data was extensive and compelling.

My .02c

how did OC compare nationally?  what were the contributing factors, in their opinion, to the decline?

Offline irvine buyer

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2018, 09:56:40 AM »
We had a RE Consulting Group come by the office and give some info from their latest report

2018 expected appreciation 3.6%
2019 expected appreciation 1.5%
2020 expected appreciation -.01%
2021 expected appreciation -3.5%

Wish I had permission to post the entire 50+ page report as there's a great deal to chew on here, but it's a "subscriber only" newsletter.


Back in 2015, I heard a panel of noted economists predict that the next recession would start sometime during the second half of 2017 to the first half of 2018.  Still waiting...


With all due respect, I don't think anyone is capable of accurately predicting what will happen beyond the next 6-12 months.  If a forecast happens to be correct, I think it's more coincidence than anything else.

Offline lnc

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2018, 10:23:03 AM »
If OC is just 3%, Irvine would be 0.

Agree, and that's why I'm agreeing with IHO that it is not worth the wait to buy in Irvine for a slim possibility of some discount.

If one want to wait and find some good deal in the surrounding cities during the slowdown, that's probably a good idea.  But don't expect any significant discount in newer and highly popular neighborhoods in Irvine though.
 

Offline ThirtySomethingWEquity

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2018, 04:01:37 PM »
If OC is just 3%, Irvine would be 0.

Agree, and that's why I'm agreeing with IHO that it is not worth the wait to buy in Irvine for a slim possibility of some discount.

If one want to wait and find some good deal in the surrounding cities during the slowdown, that's probably a good idea.  But don't expect any significant discount in newer and highly popular neighborhoods in Irvine though.

One of the new developments I follow now has a handful of 'quick move in' homes that are selling for about 20-30k less than they would have been if someone had put a deposit down and selected the options the builder put on them this summer.  I don't think there's going to be anything like the last downturn, but I think I have already saved 20k and could possibly save another 30k by waiting a few more months...

Online OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2018, 04:07:03 PM »
It would be better if you talk about what is $20k percent of total price?

Offline OCAgentGold

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #24 on: November 18, 2018, 06:00:58 AM »
It wont "crash" just slow way down. There is not a place in the world that I know of that has this level of stability. THe only thing that can spoil it is the continued flight as it turns more blue. Thats what will tank the entire state.Remember, there is not much land left. Once it is built and if California is not raising a new socialist flag,  long term appreciation is assured.

Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2018, 06:36:17 AM »
It wont "crash" just slow way down. There is not a place in the world that I know of that has this level of stability. THe only thing that can spoil it is the continued flight as it turns more blue. Thats what will tank the entire state.Remember, there is not much land left. Once it is built and if California is not raising a new socialist flag,  long term appreciation is assured.

Huh , Flight ?  Of the raven sitting atop your roof  ?

Offline irvine buyer

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #26 on: November 18, 2018, 08:29:59 AM »
Unless one's job is portable, I don't see any meaningful flight due to the political shift in representation.  Besides, it will take awhile for any policy changes to get people upset enough to move.  That said, if OC becomes like SF relative to social economic problems then all bets are off.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #27 on: November 18, 2018, 12:44:20 PM »
I thought 2018 was going to be flat and it’s basically turning out to be that.  We had gains of 3-7% in the first half of the year and since mid year we have basically given up those gains.  I think next year will be flattish (slightly up to slightly down). I’ll be watching inventory levels closely as well as interest rates. The economy and job market remain strong from what I see so it’ll take one of a few things to bring the real estate market down more than a few %....1) rates going materially over 5% on the 30 year fixed loan. 2) tariffs/trade war getting worse. 3) job losses.  4) material increase in resale inventory levels. 5) Fed getting aggressive on increasing interest rates. 6) significant devaluation on the Yuan and the US dollar continuing in strengthen against all other currencies. 
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Offline fortune11

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #28 on: November 18, 2018, 04:41:18 PM »
Thing is , housing was a LEADING indicator this time , not LAGGING as it usually is  — which is quite remarkable in and of itself given the otherwise strong jobs market. Some TI posters like eyephone and others got it right early on , to their credit .

Good thing is unlike the excess capacity I see in many other areas of the economy , housing is not one of those sectors yet — We could bounce around these low levels for a lot while longer without a meaningful correction lower, just like it took the business profit cycle a lot longer to recover from 2009.

In that sense people could be really waiting a long time if they are really trying to “time “ the bottom . 

As to interest rates , fed will likely hike in December . But for those keeping track of bond markets , notice how the market has begun to price in close to zero hikes for next year . I think the fed is about to “blink” .


Offline freedomcm

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #29 on: November 19, 2018, 02:37:21 PM »
Remember, there is not much land left. Once it is built and if California is not raising a new socialist flag,  long term appreciation is assured.

How many times have we heard this line!  an oldee, but a goodee!  Weren't there TV commercials saying this in the 03-06 era?


 

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