Author Topic: When would be next housing Bottom?  (Read 7682 times)

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Online OCLuvr

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When would be next housing Bottom?
« on: November 15, 2018, 08:47:56 PM »
What do you guys think—when would be next housing bottom?
My 2 cents:  2021

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2018, 09:25:32 PM »
Expect to receive a rebuke from IHO. He’s going to ask you how much % it will fall. And also prepare to back up your idea with graphs or articles. You will have to summerize the article though instead of giving just 2 cents.

All kiddings aside, I think either 2020 or 2024 if the housing doesn’t recover from 2020.
#fepo

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2018, 09:43:42 PM »
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Someone forgot to forward that article to the 2 FCBs that bought my two most recent listings. :P
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Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2018, 09:50:00 AM »
What about this?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exodus-from-u-s-real-estate-accelerates-with-sale-of-l-a-site-1542301496

Again, IHO will demend to summerize the article instead of a link copy and paste.

I can’t read the article unless I subscribe. Can you summerize please?

#fepo

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2018, 10:21:20 AM »
I think we all need an ELI5 version of some of these links people post.

And just to clear, I don't need an actual percentage of drop... the reason I asked was to prove a point. If people are going to advise others on what to do, they need to temper it with expectations.

If we are looking at a 20% drop, obviously, it might be better to wait... but if it's only 5-10%, then you need to assess your situation and affordability to see if it's worth waiting or if you do buy now, you don't mind that size of a drop.

I think a few other members here post a link, a copy/paste from that link that's pertinent and then their own opinion of it. To me, that's the most helpful type of post. If the copy/paste and opinion are compelling enough, I'll visit... if not... I saved 5 minutes of my life.
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Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2018, 10:21:51 AM »
Are we talking in Irvine or across US?

I think Irvine was just stay flat for the next 5 to 7 years.  I do think some of the hotter pockets will have a mini crash...price drop of 10 to 20% minimum in the next 3 to 5 years.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2018, 10:23:40 AM »
Where have you been IC?

Good to see you back in the threads.
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Offline Mety

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2018, 10:33:27 AM »
Yard vs. no yard battle round 2? jk  >:D
#fepo

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2018, 10:46:12 AM »
Where have you been IC?

Good to see you back in the threads.

Thanks

Working and life.

How are you?

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2018, 11:05:55 AM »
Where have you been IC?

Good to see you back in the threads.

Thanks

Working and life.

How are you?

Same same. But my life includes e-debates on TI... :)
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Online OCLuvr

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2018, 02:57:46 PM »
Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group has agreed to sell a glitzy development site in Beverly Hills, Calif., the latest sign that Chinese companies are bailing out of U.S. real estate after years of loading up on these properties.

A venture between London-based real-estate firm Cain International and Alagem Capital Group has agreed to purchase the eight-acre site, Cain’s chief executive officer, Jonathan Goldstein, said. The buyers have agreed to pay more than $420 million, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2018, 03:21:20 PM »
We had a RE Consulting Group come by the office and give some info from their latest report

2018 expected appreciation 3.6%
2019 expected appreciation 1.5%
2020 expected appreciation -.01%
2021 expected appreciation -3.5%

Wish I had permission to post the entire 50+ page report as there's a great deal to chew on here, but it's a "subscriber only" newsletter.

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2018, 03:24:42 PM »
Is this Irvine specific or overall US? So, when is the bottom?

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: When would be next housing Bottom?
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2018, 03:31:37 PM »
We had a RE Consulting Group come by the office and give some info from their latest report

2018 expected appreciation 3.6%
2019 expected appreciation 1.5%
2020 expected appreciation -.01%
2021 expected appreciation -3.5%

Wish I had permission to post the entire 50+ page report as there's a great deal to chew on here, but it's a "subscriber only" newsletter.

Let me guess, in Nov 2019 they'll release a new report that says:
2019 expected appreciation 3.6%
2020 expected appreciation 1.5%
2021 expected appreciation -.01%
2022 expected appreciation -3.5%

Eventually they'll get it right and they'll pull out the one report that was right and call themselves Nostradamus.


 

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