Author Topic: I am starting to like GOLD and SILVER again 2020 - 2023 lasting 2038 - 2040  (Read 1298 times)

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Offline Panda

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In my Macro lens, I am seeing an upward trend of the US Dollar. I will not be surprised if the U.S. dollar can possibly reach up to 120 index before heading down on long term decline. I hope I am smart enough to exchange my US Dollar for Gold at the bottom of the next major commodity cycle like Awgee did which I predict sometime between 2020 - 2023 lasting until 2038 - 2040. The last commodity cycle peaked in the year 2011, and 1980 before that. Inflation will be the longer term trend. You will want to hold real assets like commodities and real estate. This is my longer term prediction.
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Offline Ready2Downsize

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In my Macro lens, I am seeing an upward trend of the US Dollar. I will not be surprised if the U.S. dollar can possibly reach up to 120 index before heading down on long term decline. I hope I am smart enough to exchange my US Dollar for Gold at the bottom of the next major commodity cycle like Awgee did which I predict sometime between 2020 - 2023 lasting until 2038 - 2040. The last commodity cycle peaked in the year 2011, and 1980 before that. Inflation will be the longer term trend. You will want to hold real assets like commodities and real estate. This is my longer term prediction.

Any predictions on how low the sp 500 will go?

Mine is 2200.

Offline Panda

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Lol. I don't think anyone can accurately predict that including the investing geniuses like Jim Rogers, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Ray Dalio. I am more of a big picture Macro guy looking at the major historical cycles.

In my Macro lens, I am seeing an upward trend of the US Dollar. I will not be surprised if the U.S. dollar can possibly reach up to 120 index before heading down on long term decline. I hope I am smart enough to exchange my US Dollar for Gold at the bottom of the next major commodity cycle like Awgee did which I predict sometime between 2020 - 2023 lasting until 2038 - 2040. The last commodity cycle peaked in the year 2011, and 1980 before that. Inflation will be the longer term trend. You will want to hold real assets like commodities and real estate. This is my longer term prediction.

Any predictions on how low the sp 500 will go?

Mine is 2200.
James Park, MBA
Investment Real Estate Broker
CalBRE# 01894781, NMLS License # 1572291
Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

http://www.biggerpockets.com/users/Panda
http://www.johnscreekrealtypartners.com

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Lol. I don't think anyone can accurately predict that including the investing geniuses like Jim Rogers, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Ray Dalio. I am more of a big picture Macro guy looking at the major historical cycles.

In my Macro lens, I am seeing an upward trend of the US Dollar. I will not be surprised if the U.S. dollar can possibly reach up to 120 index before heading down on long term decline. I hope I am smart enough to exchange my US Dollar for Gold at the bottom of the next major commodity cycle like Awgee did which I predict sometime between 2020 - 2023 lasting until 2038 - 2040. The last commodity cycle peaked in the year 2011, and 1980 before that. Inflation will be the longer term trend. You will want to hold real assets like commodities and real estate. This is my longer term prediction.

Any predictions on how low the sp 500 will go?

Mine is 2200.


You are right, no one can predict with accuracy but that is my guestimate...….. 2200. Not today of course.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Thinking about adding some gold. No, I dont want ETF, miners stocks, or gld equities for a little diversification.
Rather, gold bars, the real physical metal. Just to add some 5-10% to my networth for diversification.

Where and how with a reputable dealer.

Never done this before.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 12:51:35 PM by Compressed-Village »

Offline momopi

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Thinking about adding some gold. No, I dont want ETF, miners stocks, or gld equities for a little diversification.
Rather, gold bars, the real physical metal. Just to add some 5-10% to my networth for diversification.
Where and how with a reputable dealer.
Never done this before.

...speaking as an amateur (not professional collector)...

For retail, I buy from Liberty Coin in Signal Hill.  They have another location in Huntington Beach.  From personal experience, their gold prices are often better than mail order.

For gold bars I like Swiss Pamp in 2.5 gram, 5 gram, 1/2 oz and 1 oz bars.  The Lunar year of the Rat 5 gram gold bars are $300 and make great gifts.  I don't recommend Pamp 1 oz silver bars, they cost almost twice as much vs Silver Eagles, so unless if you're collecting the Silver Lunar New Year set, you might want to get something else for silver.

For silver, APMEX has good price via mail order, but you have to factor in payment method and shipping premiums.

At retail stores often the cheapest silvers they'll sell you are silver rounds.  These are like the round silver eagle coins but minted by variety of sources.  Although silver rounds cost less, most investors prefer 1 oz American Silver Eagles or Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins.  Bulk buyers get these in 100 and 500 coin boxes. 

If you want to order 500 coin box, you can also try calling Lionel at So Cal Coins and Stamps in Downey to see if they can get you better price.  Keep in mind that physical gold/silver requires physical protection.  You may need bank safety deposit box, insurance, home safe (bolted down or to wall studs), or some kind of hidden safe at home.

When buying pay attention to metric vs imperial weights.  For example US and Canada still use 1 troy oz (31.1 grams) while other countries like China mint their silvers in 30 grams weight.  Many older coins also have lower purity rate (for example, British gold sovereigns).
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 03:00:05 PM by momopi »

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Offline Compressed-Village

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I am more inclined to purchase gold bar like gold bar 5 oz 10 oz. it will cost less than coins and easier to divest, sell later on.

Offline Panda

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Hard to say if Gold his its ultimate bottom yet. remember, in the last commodity cycle, it took literally 20 years until the precious metals bottomed. We are now in year 9. Gold and Silver is now surging on the fear of Corona.

Any other Gold experts here who have an opinion? Momopi. what are you thoughts? Gold is an inflation hedge, not a deflation hedge.
James Park, MBA
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Silver down 5.38% today. Some of the smartest minds in hedge funds seem to forget that Precious Metals are an inflation hedge, not a deflation hedge.
James Park, MBA
Investment Real Estate Broker
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Direct: (678) 865-6250
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Offline momopi

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I am more inclined to purchase gold bar like gold bar 5 oz 10 oz. it will cost less than coins and easier to divest, sell later on.

Gold coins tend to carry a premium for collector value and recognition.  It's easier to find a buyer for gold Eagle coins, or premium brand gold bars that are carded with assay.  Standard 1 oz weight is easiest to buy/sell, other weights are more difficult due to less demand.

If you're buying/selling stacks of 10 oz bars in 6-7 figures, then that's way above what I do.   $_$

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Re: I am starting to like GOLD and SILVER again 2020 - 2023 lasting 2038 - 2040
« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2020, 03:02:19 PM »
All I know is to do the *opposite* of what Panda says and you should be ok.

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Re: I am starting to like GOLD and SILVER again 2020 - 2023 lasting 2038 - 2040
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2020, 03:08:27 PM »
I am more inclined to purchase gold bar like gold bar 5 oz 10 oz. it will cost less than coins and easier to divest, sell later on.

Gold coins tend to carry a premium for collector value and recognition.  It's easier to find a buyer for gold Eagle coins, or premium brand gold bars that are carded with assay.  Standard 1 oz weight is easiest to buy/sell, other weights are more difficult due to less demand.

If you're buying/selling stacks of 10 oz bars in 6-7 figures, then that's way above what I do.   $_$

I will take it a step further.
Can goods might be worth more if the virus gets out of control. Jkjk

Offline momopi

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Re: I am starting to like GOLD and SILVER again 2020 - 2023 lasting 2038 - 2040
« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2020, 09:29:38 AM »
I will take it a step further.
Can goods might be worth more if the virus gets out of control. Jkjk

It's not difficult to find examples of people trading their firearms and gold for food in conflict zones, or countries where the local currency has collapsed.  Typically they'd trade for dry grains and not canned food, which is a luxury.

If you want to store dry grains, you can start by visiting local Winco supermarket.  They sell bulk grains, food grade buckets, Mylar bags and oxygen absorbers.  Many companies also sell dry grains in #10 cans.  These will last up to 30 years when stored in ideal conditions.  Winco also sells a variety of canned goods at good prices.

Canned food from Costco (Kirkland chicken, beef, fish, veggies) have 3-5 year shelf life according to "best use by" date.  They can be consumed via weekly rotation as you replace them with fresh cans.  Limit your canned food consumption and eat more fresh foods when possible.

https://www.wincofoods.com/long-term-food-storage

Offline momopi

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Re: I am starting to like GOLD and SILVER again 2020 - 2023 lasting 2038 - 2040
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2020, 04:35:04 PM »
Hard to say if Gold his its ultimate bottom yet. remember, in the last commodity cycle, it took literally 20 years until the precious metals bottomed. We are now in year 9. Gold and Silver is now surging on the fear of Corona.

Any other Gold experts here who have an opinion? Momopi. what are you thoughts? Gold is an inflation hedge, not a deflation hedge.

Not an expert, but I keep a small % of my assets in gold and silver.  Some say the dollar will never have hyperinflation due to (insert reason XYZ), I say never say never.  All currencies, like all nations, rise and fall before being replaced by another.  Gold and silver retains value so long as there's demand.  Though it is possible that technology advance to point where alchemy transmutation of elements is made affordable with particle accelerators, rendering precious metals mostly worthless.

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Offline Panda

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Re: I am starting to like GOLD and SILVER again 2020 - 2023 lasting 2038 - 2040
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2020, 05:18:54 PM »
It took 20 years for Silver and Gold to bottom in the last commodity cycle from 1980 to 2001. We are currently at year 9 and everybody seems to believe that the bottom has already been set by gold and silver. I like Silver valuable better than Gold at the moment.
James Park, MBA
Investment Real Estate Broker
CalBRE# 01894781, NMLS License # 1572291
Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

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