Author Topic: SALT Deduction  (Read 4489 times)

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Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #90 on: April 16, 2019, 12:19:30 PM »
Well which gauge do you want to judge growth? GDP? up, Wages? up, Capital formation? up job creation? up corporate earnings? up, unemployment? down, housing? up, manufacturing? up,  Capex? up.  personal wealth? up. We can argue the minutiae of magnitudes but there is little that shows weakness.

There are a ton of warning signs...question is what the tax cut did to help the economy?  All those factor were already on the plus side prior to the tax cut.

Bottom line number:  2.9% GDP in 2018...about 2% projection in 2019...about 1.5% projection in 2020...what did the tax cut do?

Offline morekaos

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #91 on: April 16, 2019, 12:32:18 PM »
More "if true..thens"....those lines have not worked out as of late.

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #92 on: April 16, 2019, 12:34:16 PM »
Well which gauge do you want to judge growth? GDP? up, Wages? up, Capital formation? up job creation? up corporate earnings? up, unemployment? down, housing? up, manufacturing? up,  Capex? up.  personal wealth? up. We can argue the minutiae of magnitudes but there is little that shows weakness.

There are a ton of warning signs...question is what the tax cut did to help the economy?  All those factor were already on the plus side prior to the tax cut.

Bottom line number:  2.9% GDP in 2018...about 2% projection in 2019...about 1.5% projection in 2020...what did the tax cut do?

The tax cuts did the same thing the government always does which is the same thing most addicts do when their buzz is wearing off and they don't have any product.

Offline morekaos

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #93 on: April 16, 2019, 12:46:21 PM »
No one is arguing that the business cycle has been repealed but you cant give an inch to any causal argument linking tax cuts with growth because it would give Trump some positive credit. It all has to be an amazing coincidence or hapless bumbling, huh?  Oh, a recession will come, thats a fact, but velocity of the growth phase was pushed along by this tax plan, like it or not.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #94 on: April 16, 2019, 12:49:04 PM »
More "if true..thens"....those lines have not worked out as of late.

2.9% GDP in 2018 was a real thing. 

2014:  2.5
2015:  2.9
2016:  1.6
2017:  2.3
2018:  2.9

Are you predicting GDP growth in 2019 to be better than 2.9%?

Offline morekaos

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #95 on: April 16, 2019, 12:50:09 PM »
Wouldn't surprise me. The same way I wasn't surprised when this didn't happen...

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
 By PAUL KRUGMAN

COMMENT
2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:0012:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout

« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 12:55:50 PM by morekaos »

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #96 on: April 16, 2019, 12:57:49 PM »
No one is arguing that the business cycle has been repealed but you cant give an inch to any causal argument linking tax cuts with growth because it would give Trump some positive credit. It all has to be an amazing coincidence or hapless bumbling, huh?  Oh, a recession will come, thats a fact, but velocity of the growth phase was pushed along by this tax plan, like it or not.

Again...no one is disputing that tax cuts spurs some level of growth.   The contention is whether it's a temporary sugar high or a sustainable long term economic strategy.  Most experts agree that the effects of the tax cut is most felt in the first year of the cut...which is basically 2018.  Trump and his advisors stated that the tax cuts will usher in 3-4% growth in the next 10 years...we have not even hit that in year 1. 

I mean...the man was predicting 4 to 6% growth:

Quote
"So we're at 3.3 percent GDP. I see no reason why we don't go to 4 percent, 5 percent, and even 6 percent."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/06/trump-defies-data-with-6-percent-gdp-growth-forecast.html

Quote
Trump’s fiscal plan forecasts the economy will grow by 3.2 percent this year (after adjusting for inflation), at least 3 percent annually through 2024, and by about 2.8 percent from 2026 through 2029. By contrast, CBO projects real economic growth of about 2.7 percent this year, falling to 1.9 percent in 2020, then ranging from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent through the next eight years. On average, CBO projects the economy will grow about a full percentage point more slowly over the next decade.

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/tale-two-economies-comparing-trumps-economic-forecast-cbos

And you understand that cutting taxes during a time of economic growth is also dumb because the effects will be next to nothing...companies were already hoarding a ton of cash and unemployment already super low.

« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 01:03:14 PM by Irvinecommuter »

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #97 on: April 16, 2019, 12:58:34 PM »
Wouldn't surprise me. The same way I wasn't surprised when this didn't happen...

Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout
 By PAUL KRUGMAN

COMMENT
2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:0012:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout


So...3% growth for the next 9 years?  And it doesn't happen and the predictions are accurate...would that be Trump's fault or someone's fault.

Oh how about the deficit?  I guess that's not a thing anymore.

Quote
But Washington’s accounts have run $319 billion into the red since the fiscal year began in October, compared to a $225 billion deficit over the same period a year earlier.

Corporate taxes collected for the October-December period have fallen 17 percent from a year earlier, while taxes collected from individuals have fallen about 4 percent.

The fiscal deterioration began well before the tax cuts, however. The 12-month sum of fiscal deficits has been on a widening trend since early 2016. Washington collected nearly $900 billion less than it spent in the 2018 calendar year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/us-posts-14-billion-budget-deficit-after-trump-tax-cuts.html

Online eyephone

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #98 on: April 16, 2019, 01:02:07 PM »
So the bottom line, not much changed?
Does this tell us in any way that the housing market will be back to bull run again? Or are the buyers still fed up with ridiculous prices?

It did change it effected real estate. Go to the housing analysis thread.

It did affect the market for sure. I agree with you like you suggested not to buy last year as I also think last year was the worst time to buy IMO. But people kinda stopped buying because of the seasonality, ridiculous listing prices and also the fear of this new tax plan would not benefit like it used to. It seems though because of other factors, people are not much affected by it in the overall tax calculations or even got more benefits for some reason as some TI members are saying. The housing tax alone might have been a little less attractive, but because of new bracket systems, maybe it turned out not as bad? I could be wrong. I’m just guessing from how people including myself thought it was going to be so bad, but surprised to see some benefits at the end. Well, I was only interested how it would affect the housing market so I guess we will see how it plays.

Read the article from the NY Fed. Don’t be foolish and rely on TI responses. (You should know better.)

Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

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Offline morekaos

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #99 on: April 16, 2019, 01:04:10 PM »
Didn't say that, but this year wouldn't surprise me. So you stipulate that the cuts had a near term effect?.  I do think it will last until the next recession, which as I said, will happen, eventually.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #100 on: April 16, 2019, 01:04:36 PM »
Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Like I said...just stop with the "good for the economy" spin...just go with "Who care...rich people pay less taxes"

Offline Kings

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #101 on: April 16, 2019, 01:08:06 PM »
Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Like I said...just stop with the "good for the economy" spin...just go with "Who care...rich people pay less taxes"

rich people pay most of the taxes in this country anyway....surprise surprise, tax cut also affects them the most!

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #102 on: April 16, 2019, 01:09:58 PM »
Didn't say that, but this year wouldn't surprise me. So you stipulate that the cuts had a near term effect?.  I do think it will last until the next recession, which as I said, will happen, eventually.

Everyone stipulated to that but tax cuts are not suppose to be the driver of economic growth...they are supposed to be the match that lights the powder keg.  Except...there was barely a fizzle.

Conversely we have a dramatic increase in deficit, which will need to be pay for going forward and hurt the economy even more when the rescission eventually comes. 

Oh...we haven't even talked about the tariffs imposed by Trump...again to little short term gain and likely to result in long term harm.

Seriously...the Laffer Curve is myth.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #103 on: April 16, 2019, 01:11:13 PM »
Mety: take a look at these poll numbers

Politico Article: On Tax Day, Trump tax cuts remain deeply unpopular

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 17 percent of Americans believe their own taxes will go down as a result of the bill. A CBS News poll found that 40 percent said they saw no change from the tax bill. And more said it drove their taxes up (32 percent) than lowered their tax bill (25 percent.)

The bill itself has been unpopular from the start and remains so.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted last month found that 36 percent of Americans approve of the tax-cut law while 49 percent disapprove. Even the number of Republicans who strongly approve of the law dipped in the latest Pew survey.

White House officials’ response to the unpopularity of the tax cut is basically: Who cares?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

Like I said...just stop with the "good for the economy" spin...just go with "Who care...rich people pay less taxes"

rich people pay most of the taxes in this country anyway....surprise surprise, tax cut also affects them the most!

Actually, this tax cut was mostly about corporation...where is the effect? 

Again...like the libertarian...just stop pretending that GOP cares about the bigger picture.  Just go with "Help rich people and corporation make more money" slogan.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: SALT Deduction
« Reply #104 on: April 16, 2019, 01:14:00 PM »

 

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