Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 307577 times)

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1845 on: July 01, 2022, 05:27:51 PM »
Looks like bond rates are rolling over as the market is pricing in a higher % chance of inflation and 10-year bond rate is below 2.90%, which I believe we'll get by the end of the this year/early next year.  If that happens, bond rates will roll over and mortgage rates will follow.

Yes, 10-year treasury yield has been coming down from the high. Fixed mortgage rate will follow.

They already have, one of my lenders told me they are at 4% for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan today at 0pts.
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Offline talkirvine

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1846 on: July 04, 2022, 11:31:16 AM »
Looks like bond rates are rolling over as the market is pricing in a higher % chance of inflation and 10-year bond rate is below 2.90%, which I believe we'll get by the end of the this year/early next year.  If that happens, bond rates will roll over and mortgage rates will follow.

Yes, 10-year treasury yield has been coming down from the high. Fixed mortgage rate will follow.

Wow, that the lowest I have heard recently. Would you mind sharing who the lender is and who your contact is? Thanks.
They already have, one of my lenders told me they are at 4% for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan today at 0pts.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1847 on: July 04, 2022, 12:08:45 PM »
Looks like bond rates are rolling over as the market is pricing in a higher % chance of inflation and 10-year bond rate is below 2.90%, which I believe we'll get by the end of the this year/early next year.  If that happens, bond rates will roll over and mortgage rates will follow.

Yes, 10-year treasury yield has been coming down from the high. Fixed mortgage rate will follow.

They already have, one of my lenders told me they are at 4% for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan today at 0pts.

Key Bank with 30% down.
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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1848 on: July 05, 2022, 10:04:33 AM »
Wow the 10-year is now below 2.80% and oil is down $10 per barrel, crazy action.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1849 on: July 11, 2022, 12:08:53 PM »
The largest increases in inventory are out West, followed by the South.


Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1850 on: July 13, 2022, 03:15:12 PM »
Percent of Pending Sales that Fell Out of Contract in June
Nationally, 14.9% fell out of escrow.

Las Vegas ~        27.2%
Phoenix ~           24.5%
Salt Lake City ~  22.4%
Boise ~              21.5%
Riverside ~        20.9%


https://digg.com/real-estate/link/american-cities-with-highest-year-over-year-median-asking-rent-pending-sales-falling-out-of-contract

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1851 on: July 13, 2022, 03:47:25 PM »
Percent of Pending Sales that Fell Out of Contract in June
Nationally, 14.9% fell out of escrow.

Las Vegas ~        27.2%
Phoenix ~           24.5%
Salt Lake City ~  22.4%
Boise ~              21.5%
Riverside ~        20.9%


https://digg.com/real-estate/link/american-cities-with-highest-year-over-year-median-asking-rent-pending-sales-falling-out-of-contract

No surprise that the hottest markets with the biggest % price run-ups make up the top of this list (ID, FL, TX, AZ, and NV). 
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Offline daedalus

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1852 on: July 13, 2022, 10:32:30 PM »
I'll know we're close to a bottom when the daily spam texts from strangers offering to buy my house stop.

Offline paydawg

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1853 on: July 14, 2022, 09:00:14 AM »
I'll know we're close to a bottom when the daily spam texts from strangers offering to buy my house stop.

I get those texts for properties I don't even own
Thanks in advance for the 'thanks'!!

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1854 on: July 14, 2022, 09:14:01 AM »
I'll know we're close to a bottom when the daily spam texts from strangers offering to buy my house stop.

You guys are lucky, I get both the texts and phone calls.  haha
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1855 on: July 20, 2022, 12:28:35 PM »
Six months ago, my views on housing were considered extreme.  Now even mainstream economists agree with me.

US housing market could be headed for ‘meltdown,’ economist warns

US home builder confidence plummeted 12 points to 55 in July, according to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.

Sentiment has declined for seven straight months and is now at its lowest level since May 2020 — with more trouble potentially ahead for homeowners.

“Homebuilders have been in denial about the extent of the drop in demand, despite mortgage applications falling by more than a quarter over the first half of the year, with no end in sight to the decline,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Now, they are acknowledging reality.”

Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss,” Shepherdson added.


https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/us-housing-market-could-be-headed-for-meltdown-economist/

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1856 on: July 20, 2022, 05:00:38 PM »
"Ooo look... now I'm right and everyone is agreeing with me!"

Hilarious.
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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1857 on: July 20, 2022, 06:03:22 PM »
Six months ago, my views on housing were considered extreme.  Now even mainstream economists agree with me.

US housing market could be headed for ‘meltdown,’ economist warns

US home builder confidence plummeted 12 points to 55 in July, according to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.

Sentiment has declined for seven straight months and is now at its lowest level since May 2020 — with more trouble potentially ahead for homeowners.

“Homebuilders have been in denial about the extent of the drop in demand, despite mortgage applications falling by more than a quarter over the first half of the year, with no end in sight to the decline,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Now, they are acknowledging reality.”

Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss,” Shepherdson added.


https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/us-housing-market-could-be-headed-for-meltdown-economist/

Aren't those the same guys who predicted that prices would be up 10%+ in 2022 earlier this year?
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Offline trematix

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1858 on: July 21, 2022, 10:37:51 AM »
Are you really quoting the Post? LOL.




Six months ago, my views on housing were considered extreme.  Now even mainstream economists agree with me.

US housing market could be headed for ‘meltdown,’ economist warns

US home builder confidence plummeted 12 points to 55 in July, according to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.

Sentiment has declined for seven straight months and is now at its lowest level since May 2020 — with more trouble potentially ahead for homeowners.

“Homebuilders have been in denial about the extent of the drop in demand, despite mortgage applications falling by more than a quarter over the first half of the year, with no end in sight to the decline,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Now, they are acknowledging reality.”

Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss,” Shepherdson added.


https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/us-housing-market-could-be-headed-for-meltdown-economist/

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1859 on: July 21, 2022, 12:37:18 PM »
Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss,” Shepherdson added.

Aren't those the same guys who predicted that prices would be up 10%+ in 2022 earlier this year?

These are the same guys that called the housing bubble in 2005.

He Saw Trouble Coming. Now He Sees It Going.
Nov. 6, 2010

But positive indicators can and do disappoint, so I decided to consult an expert on these matters: Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at High Frequency Economics. As a reader of economic tea leaves over the last five turbulent years, Mr. Shepherdson has a darn good record. For instance, unlike the throng of economists who failed to see the housing crisis coming, Mr. Shepherdson warned his clients in fall 2005 that real estate would crash and a recession would ensue.

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/business/07gret.html

The Five Financial Gurus You Can Still Trust
Jul. 14, 2017

1) Ian Shepherdson Ian Shepherdson anticipated the sharp decline in the U.S. housing market earlier than most. Back in 2005, for instance, he argued that the U.S. housing bubble was starting to hiss badly. He correctly forecast that the housing decline would have wide-ranging ramifications for the economy and the housing market.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-five-financial-gurus-you-can-still-trust

 

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