Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 290810 times)

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1740 on: May 26, 2022, 01:28:38 PM »
Inventory is still low by historical standards, but it's rapidly increasing at the moment.  Earlier this year, inventory was down -30% from a year ago, now it's up +9% and growing at an accelerating rate.

And last year inventory was stupid low, we are still hovering around 1 month of inventory with your big increase in inventory (we were down as low as 1 week of inventory at one point) so it's going to take a lot more inventory on the market for prices to come down materially (think over 3 months of inventory).
With what is happening with rates and the talks of a recession, buyer sentiment is key. You are hearing big tech companies slowing or even stopping hiring right now. The RSUs for down payments are shrunk by more than half. Talks of a recession are all over the place. All of this matters because if one is ready to buy a home even with less competition, they are putting a pause on their home search as shown by inventories growing. Rates are higher and may have an impact on the demand, but I would argue the economic uncertainty is more concerning now and is a bigger factor as to the RE slowdown more so than rates.

We always get so fixated on Irvine Irvine Irvine. Not everything is based on Irvine and if anything, whatever happens with other parts of California will happen to Irvine as well. Especially ones that are buying at $700+ per sqft in those dense, no lot, and no driveway type of homes. At some point, your cost basis needs to justify the premium that was paid. Location matters, but if people are bidding homes that don’t deserve that premium in a normal market, it will be impacted regardless of where you’re located.

Agreed, the first properties that will drop are the crappy ones (bad locations, bad layouts, etc).  The good stuff will still sell well and it'll be good to see a more balanced market.  Some of the idiot listing agents that I'd had to work with will be humbled by the turn and the good agents will continue to shine.  Instead of having to use escalation clauses to help clients buy homes, I can actually negotiate a better price for them. 
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Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1741 on: May 26, 2022, 01:52:17 PM »
Inventory is still low by historical standards, but it's rapidly increasing at the moment.  Earlier this year, inventory was down -30% from a year ago, now it's up +9% and growing at an accelerating rate.

It would help matters if the area you live in have job growth, like um, new jobs from companies moving to the area and building new offices and factories.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/fastest-growing-cities-population-estimates.html

Where are the cities growing? Well in AZ they are cities that have jobs coming.

So when you yap on about phoenix being boom and bust, take a look at how far apart all those cities are on the list from each other and what kinds of jobs are coming. The area has land to build and workers are coming, like they did to the OC in the early 60's.

Remember when the OC had bad recessions from aerospace? Of course not, because u weren't here then most likely but the So Cal area was heavily dependent on aerospace and as boeing, mc donald douglas, northrup went, so went the area. (Entertainment was not that big then).

Remember when Texas was dependent on oil drilling? Boom and bust as J.R. Ewing knew but what did Texas do? Same as So Cal, they got new biz. In came Dell and broadband companies and EVs. No longer dependent on one thing, they will weather the storm more than they did in the past.

So goes Phoenix. The boom and bust u like to yap about, is less likely. Sure if a recession comes, most areas will go too but Phoenix ain't Goodyear, Maricopa City, Casa Grande, Queen Creek or Buckeye so please don't refer to AZ as some big blanket yada yada any more and Phoenix ain't growing quickly. There isn't a lot of land there, same with established areas like Gilbert, Chandler and Tempe. Obviously not on the list are areas u like to go on about having a downturn like Kingman and Prescott. LOL! No job growth there.

Imagine u have cities that are bringing in manufacturing plants and offices with high paying jobs that each have 2000-3000 jobs and there are more than one to cities that have 75000 people living in them? Smaller offices join in and then you've got retail establishments and schools being built, etc? U have to build houses for them! WHY do you think people are moving to those areas? LOL! There is honestly more than just low current inventory that is an issue in cities like that.

And why are they going to THOSE cities and not yours? LAND, housing that doesn't cost 800/sq foot, less regulations and taxes. We can't wait around a lifetime to get these things built which is one reason Elon left the beautiful state of California for Texas.

U want the OC to keep the housing thing going. Get more jobs. Just low inventory ain't gonna work forever.

Actually it's better to not have more people here. U don't have enough water and when u stop watering the OC will look like it did when I moved here......... brown except where farmland was irrigated. Trees are going to be dried up kindling without watering. This area has always had a problem. Mayor Bradley (Los Angeles) told us Yellow is Mellow, Brown Flush it down and that was in the 70's when we didn't have enough water with half the population. So what does the state do? Conserve, Cut Back! PLEASE! We voted in no less than 8 bonds to deal with water shortage and what do we have to show for it? NOTHING! All these years we did nothing but increase the population.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2022, 02:23:02 PM by Ready2Downsize »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1742 on: May 26, 2022, 01:58:21 PM »
Inventory is still low by historical standards, but it's rapidly increasing at the moment.  Earlier this year, inventory was down -30% from a year ago, now it's up +9% and growing at an accelerating rate.

And last year inventory was stupid low, we are still hovering around 1 month of inventory with your big increase in inventory (we were down as low as 1 week of inventory at one point) so it's going to take a lot more inventory on the market for prices to come down materially (think over 3 months of inventory).

Sure, but this ballgame has only just begun.

Oh so now it's begun? Wasn't that what you were saying in 2018? 2019? 2020? 2021?

One year you will get it right.

Also, inventory increase leading up to summer season is typical seasonal behavior. :)
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1743 on: May 27, 2022, 10:30:28 AM »
I was chastised by Glenn Kelman on the Lansner Blog years ago because he didn't like me pointing out how Redfin's business model was going to hurt traditional realtor commissions.  Haha... Those were good times.  I miss those days.

Now I have to say I'm impressed that the leader of such a large brokerage would be this honest about the direction of home prices.  The CNBC host looks a little shell shocked.


Housing prices are going to soften, says Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman


Offline morekaos

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1744 on: May 28, 2022, 07:36:28 AM »
You just never know…..

Is the housing boom about to bust? Sellers are slashing prices at levels not seen since before the pandemic amid rapidly cooling market as hedge fund manager of The Big Short fame warns 'It's like watching a plane crash'

More than 20% of homes for sale in Philadelphia, Boise, New Orleans and Sacramento had their prices reduced in April
Michael Burry, of 'The Big Short' fame, compared the slowing housing market to 2008 saying it's like 'watching a plane crash'
This week mortgage rates reached a 13-year high of more than 5%
One economist said that house prices could drop as much as 40% during the summer of 2022

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10862005/Sellers-slashing-prices-levels-not-seen-pandemic-market-rapidly-cools.html

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1745 on: May 28, 2022, 12:39:19 PM »
Oh now that morekaos has chimed in with a DailyMail link it’s gotta be true.

Stick to politics and financials please.
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Offline daedalus

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1746 on: May 28, 2022, 01:09:26 PM »
If prices crash 40% I'm going to scoop up my retirement home!

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1747 on: May 28, 2022, 02:18:08 PM »
We are going to get articles comparing this slowdown to the 2008 crash which is a complete joke but hey it's all about clicks. 
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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1748 on: May 28, 2022, 02:19:01 PM »
I was chastised by Glenn Kelman on the Lansner Blog years ago because he didn't like me pointing out how Redfin's business model was going to hurt traditional realtor commissions.  Haha... Those were good times.  I miss those days.

Now I have to say I'm impressed that the leader of such a large brokerage would be this honest about the direction of home prices.  The CNBC host looks a little shell shocked.


Housing prices are going to soften, says Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman


What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)? 
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Offline CalBears96

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1749 on: May 28, 2022, 08:54:46 PM »
Apparently, Irvine Pacific didn't get the memo about housing price cool down.

We went to pick up keys for our new Bluffs 2 today. Got price sheet from sales lady. Base price increased $20k from last phase, and she said next phase will increase by $25k. She pretty much said that IP will keep increasing price because the buyers are still from the waitlist.

The two homes just released are the smallest lots, so the cash buyers declined them because they're waiting for either view lot or big lot. Cash buyers with deep pockets, seems like.

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1750 on: May 28, 2022, 09:28:33 PM »
Apparently, Irvine Pacific didn't get the memo about housing price cool down.

We went to pick up keys for our new Bluffs 2 today. Got price sheet from sales lady. Base price increased $20k from last phase, and she said next phase will increase by $25k. She pretty much said that IP will keep increasing price because the buyers are still from the waitlist.

The two homes just released are the smallest lots, so the cash buyers declined them because they're waiting for either view lot or big lot. Cash buyers with deep pockets, seems like.

Sierra sold all but 1 of their phase 5 homes so there's still buyer demand out there.  Yes it's slowing but we aren't falling off a cliff so you don't have to worry that your Bluffs home will be worth $1m in a few years.  haha
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Offline The California Court Company

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1751 on: May 28, 2022, 09:33:46 PM »
congratulations on your brand new home! I guess due to competitiveness people on the waitlist still want to follow through and purchase, until resale or other alternatives start to drop in price and become more appealing.

Apparently, Irvine Pacific didn't get the memo about housing price cool down.

We went to pick up keys for our new Bluffs 2 today. Got price sheet from sales lady. Base price increased $20k from last phase, and she said next phase will increase by $25k. She pretty much said that IP will keep increasing price because the buyers are still from the waitlist.

The two homes just released are the smallest lots, so the cash buyers declined them because they're waiting for either view lot or big lot. Cash buyers with deep pockets, seems like.
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Offline Danimal

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1752 on: May 28, 2022, 10:11:52 PM »
Apparently, Irvine Pacific didn't get the memo about housing price cool down.

We went to pick up keys for our new Bluffs 2 today. Got price sheet from sales lady. Base price increased $20k from last phase, and she said next phase will increase by $25k. She pretty much said that IP will keep increasing price because the buyers are still from the waitlist.

The two homes just released are the smallest lots, so the cash buyers declined them because they're waiting for either view lot or big lot. Cash buyers with deep pockets, seems like.

Congrats Golden Bear. Enjoy your new home.

Wow you COE fast.  How many days did IP give you between final walkthrough and COE? Did they fix everything you found? Aside from picking up the  key, did you go over the house again with IP?

Mine is closing end of next week.

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1753 on: May 28, 2022, 10:45:49 PM »
Apparently, Irvine Pacific didn't get the memo about housing price cool down.

We went to pick up keys for our new Bluffs 2 today. Got price sheet from sales lady. Base price increased $20k from last phase, and she said next phase will increase by $25k. She pretty much said that IP will keep increasing price because the buyers are still from the waitlist.

The two homes just released are the smallest lots, so the cash buyers declined them because they're waiting for either view lot or big lot. Cash buyers with deep pockets, seems like.

Congrats Golden Bear. Enjoy your new home.

Wow you COE fast.  How many days did IP give you between final walkthrough and COE? Did they fix everything you found? Aside from picking up the  key, did you go over the house again with IP?

Mine is closing end of next week.

Thanks.

We had two days between walkthrough and COE. We closed on Friday. I could have picked up the keys on Friday, but we wanted to move some stuff into the new home, so we decided to pick up the keys today. We picked up the keys from sales, so we didn't go over the house again with IP. The fixed almost everything.

We saw some scratches on the polished porcelain in the kitchen and master bath, so I'll talk to customer service and see if they can polish it. There is still one tape in the master bed closet organizer that they missed.

But I just noticed one big mistake. We did almost complete windows treatment. We only didn't do the bigger window is master bed and bedroom 3. Originally, we planned to put drapes there, but no we want to do shutter. And we thought that we decided not to put shutter in the master bath. I went over the upgrade price sheet to check the price on those 3. Then I noticed that we did decide to put shutter in the master bath. And they missed it. So I'll need to talk to IP and have them fix that. And at the same time, I'll talk to the windows treatment contractor to add shutter to those two big windows also.

Overall, they did a pretty good job fixing the stuff we found.

We still have a lot to do before we can enjoy the house.  We're going back tomorrow to seal the grout. :P There's also bed (we ordered the frames, but need shop mattress tomorrow) and washer/dryer to buy. And we're going to buy a mini fridge until the Sub-zero arrives, supposedly on July 1st.

Offline Danimal

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1754 on: May 29, 2022, 06:55:32 AM »
Our SZ got delay till next year because they switch to a new model & stop making the old one. We’lll use our spare fridge in the garage. Everything takes a while to make nowadays.  Our Bassett sofa set will take 4 months.

We also bought a set of Speed Queen TR7/TD7 at Renwes. Top load old school commercial style, little more expensive than other brands but supposed to last 20+ years. I dont want to bring those machine up and down the stair when they break. 😀

 

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