Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 304965 times)

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Offline CalBears96

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1725 on: May 19, 2022, 07:02:43 PM »
How many L's does LL have to take before he realizes that data for the rest of the country is NOT the same as data for the Irvine or Orange County?

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1726 on: May 19, 2022, 07:14:33 PM »
How many L's does LL have to take before he realizes that data for the rest of the country is NOT the same as data for the Irvine or Orange County?

Orange County and Irvine have outperformed the national real estate market for a long time and will probably do so for the foreseeable future.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1727 on: May 20, 2022, 09:43:48 AM »
How many L's does LL have to take before he realizes that data for the rest of the country is NOT the same as data for the Irvine or Orange County?

Orange County and Irvine have outperformed the national real estate market for a long time and will probably do so for the foreseeable future.

We are in complete agreement, which is why I sold my inland rentals.  Places like Riverside and Phoenix will get squashed much more severely.  Of course, condos in OC have a history of getting pummeled badly, so we shouldn't assume all of OC, or even Irvine, will move in lockstep.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1728 on: May 20, 2022, 02:19:07 PM »
How many L's does LL have to take before he realizes that data for the rest of the country is NOT the same as data for the Irvine or Orange County?

Orange County and Irvine have outperformed the national real estate market for a long time and will probably do so for the foreseeable future.

We are in complete agreement, which is why I sold my inland rentals.  Places like Riverside and Phoenix will get squashed much more severely.  Of course, condos in OC have a history of getting pummeled badly, so we shouldn't assume all of OC, or even Irvine, will move in lockstep.

There I agree with you, attached condo will under perform detached properties just like they did in the last downturn. 
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1729 on: May 24, 2022, 11:57:52 AM »
The new homes supply has reached 9 months, a level that has only ever happened during recessions.  (See the dark shaded areas intersected by the dotted line.)


Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1730 on: May 24, 2022, 01:39:56 PM »
Finally... LL's dreams will come true.................
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1731 on: May 24, 2022, 02:59:37 PM »
Finally... LL's dreams will come true.................

I think the best thing for society would be homes increasing at a slow & steady pace, instead of these boom/bust cycles that leave so much pain and wreckage in their wake.  Unfortunately, I don't have any control over the markets.  I can only post information to help guide others into making better housing decisions.

If you are thinking of buying a home, you might want to wait until things go on sale.  At the very least, there's no reason to rush.  The housing shortage has been cancelled.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2022, 03:16:25 PM by Liar Loan »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1732 on: May 24, 2022, 05:08:50 PM »
Liar Loan... the people's champ.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1733 on: May 26, 2022, 09:38:41 AM »
Pending home sales always decline this time of year...  No worries though because Lawrence Yun says no drop in home prices.

Pending Home Sales Plunge To Lowest Level In Nearly A Decade—Worst Could Be Yet To Come

Pending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in April to the lowest level in nearly a decade, according to Tuesday data, and experts believe sales have much more room to fall as rising mortgage rates put a damper on a booming housing market.

Meanwhile, Yun says home prices "appear in no danger of any meaningful decline" given an ongoing housing shortage and swift selling, with listed homes generally seeing a contract signed within one month.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/05/26/pending-home-sales-plunge-to-lowest-level-in-nearly-a-decade-worst-could-be-yet-to-come/

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1734 on: May 26, 2022, 11:05:24 AM »
Pending home sales always decline this time of year...  No worries though because Lawrence Yun says no drop in home prices.

Pending Home Sales Plunge To Lowest Level In Nearly A Decade—Worst Could Be Yet To Come

Pending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in April to the lowest level in nearly a decade, according to Tuesday data, and experts believe sales have much more room to fall as rising mortgage rates put a damper on a booming housing market.

Meanwhile, Yun says home prices "appear in no danger of any meaningful decline" given an ongoing housing shortage and swift selling, with listed homes generally seeing a contract signed within one month.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/05/26/pending-home-sales-plunge-to-lowest-level-in-nearly-a-decade-worst-could-be-yet-to-come/

Funny how he mentions inventory levels, I remember someone else talking about watching inventory levels.
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Offline morekaos

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1735 on: May 26, 2022, 12:27:16 PM »
National listings are growing...supply push...

Home listings suddenly jump as sellers worry they may miss out on the red-hot housing market

The supply of homes for sale jumped 9% last week compared with the same week one year ago, according to Realtor.com.
Real estate brokerage Redfin also reported that new listings rose nearly twice as fast in the four weeks ended May 15 as they did during the same period a year ago.
Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, dropped nearly 4% in April, month to month and were down just over 9% from April 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/26/home-listings-suddenly-spike-as-sellers-worry-theyll-miss-out-on-red-hot-market.html

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1736 on: May 26, 2022, 12:48:19 PM »
Inventory is still low by historical standards, but it's rapidly increasing at the moment.  Earlier this year, inventory was down -30% from a year ago, now it's up +9% and growing at an accelerating rate.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1737 on: May 26, 2022, 12:57:57 PM »
Inventory is still low by historical standards, but it's rapidly increasing at the moment.  Earlier this year, inventory was down -30% from a year ago, now it's up +9% and growing at an accelerating rate.

And last year inventory was stupid low, we are still hovering around 1 month of inventory with your big increase in inventory (we were down as low as 1 week of inventory at one point) so it's going to take a lot more inventory on the market for prices to come down materially (think over 3 months of inventory).
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1738 on: May 26, 2022, 12:59:44 PM »
Inventory is still low by historical standards, but it's rapidly increasing at the moment.  Earlier this year, inventory was down -30% from a year ago, now it's up +9% and growing at an accelerating rate.

And last year inventory was stupid low, we are still hovering around 1 month of inventory with your big increase in inventory (we were down as low as 1 week of inventory at one point) so it's going to take a lot more inventory on the market for prices to come down materially (think over 3 months of inventory).

Sure, but this ballgame has only just begun.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1739 on: May 26, 2022, 01:17:21 PM »
Inventory is still low by historical standards, but it's rapidly increasing at the moment.  Earlier this year, inventory was down -30% from a year ago, now it's up +9% and growing at an accelerating rate.

And last year inventory was stupid low, we are still hovering around 1 month of inventory with your big increase in inventory (we were down as low as 1 week of inventory at one point) so it's going to take a lot more inventory on the market for prices to come down materially (think over 3 months of inventory).
With what is happening with rates and the talks of a recession, buyer sentiment is key. You are hearing big tech companies slowing or even stopping hiring right now. The RSUs for down payments are shrunk by more than half. Talks of a recession are all over the place. All of this matters because if one is ready to buy a home even with less competition, they are putting a pause on their home search as shown by inventories growing. Rates are higher and may have an impact on the demand, but I would argue the economic uncertainty is more concerning now and is a bigger factor as to the RE slowdown more so than rates.

We always get so fixated on Irvine Irvine Irvine. Not everything is based on Irvine and if anything, whatever happens with other parts of California will happen to Irvine as well. Especially ones that are buying at $700+ per sqft in those dense, no lot, and no driveway type of homes. At some point, your cost basis needs to justify the premium that was paid. Location matters, but if people are bidding homes that don’t deserve that premium in a normal market, it will be impacted regardless of where you’re located.

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