Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 226957 times)

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Offline zubs

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1305 on: November 16, 2021, 12:04:52 PM »
LL has to convince TI that his investments in other places that are not Irvine did better.
It seems to be very important to him so please don't harm his delusions.

Let it go.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1306 on: November 16, 2021, 12:52:25 PM »
What Irvine slump? OC vs Irvine in the last 3 years.

Irvine +34%
OC +15%

Haha... You've attached a four year chart.  How very sly of you.

Nonetheless it shows that OC outperformed Irvine for three years starting in 2018, just as I've always stated.  So thank you for proving my point with this data.

Even a real estate broker like yourself, if they are being honest (a big IF mind you), has to admit Irvine was a subpar investment over that time. 

Irvine only took off in late 2020 once the QE spigot was turned back on, meaning buyers in Irvine are heavily dependent on stimulus money from the Fed to achieve their housing dreams, but what happens when the welfare checks stop coming in?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDIT:  Your percentage increases are wrong.  OC outperformed Irvine over the past four years:

Irvine:  $860k to $1,125k = 31%
OC:      $670k to $910k = 36%

LL has to convince TI that his investments in other places that are not Irvine did better.
It seems to be very important to him so please don't harm his delusions.

Let it go.

IHO actually inquired about it, and I responded cordially, but I can always count on you and Compressed Village to defend IHO's besmirched honor...lol

Look your issue is with the irrefutable charts that Cares and USCTrojanCPA post here.  I'm simply helping you to see the truth.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2021, 01:09:23 PM by Liar Loan »

Offline Cares

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1307 on: November 16, 2021, 03:22:33 PM »
I don't manipulate the chart data. I selected 3 years as you can see and I have no idea why they spit out 4 years.

Either way, I will admit after your comment that the growth percentages looked off. I dug further into the raw data and noticed they are calculating the growth from the last period (1 year in this situation), so from Oct. 2020 to present.

So if you go back and calculate it OC 29.07% versus Irvine 29.80% over the last 3 years. Still not showing OC outperforming Irvine but level at least in this time frame.

I extrapolated the data back to January 2008 and on average for a rolling 1 year period, Irvine underperformed OC by about 1.2% growth.

I don't think this is an alarming stat though because it is a common theme for lower priced homes to be able to achieve higher percentage growth than a higher priced home. You have more buyers "fighting" for entry level homes driving up prices higher than they would a $1-2M home.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1308 on: November 17, 2021, 09:23:30 AM »
And if you really do have $1k to throw away, why not consider donating it to the poor, via charity?  I will match any donation you make.  Name the amount and I will post a gift statement here as proof.

No?  Nothing?  Crickets.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1309 on: November 17, 2021, 05:12:46 PM »
the Irvine slump in 2018 that lasted for three years as the rest of OC made solid price gains.

Do you have definitive proof of this other than OCHN? Seems like it was the same throughout OC.

USCTrojanCPA publishes the charts here monthly.  I'm surprised you haven't seen them.

Still don't see "slump" vs "solid price gains".

Even Cares' post details that they are closer than your statement is trying to imply.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1310 on: November 18, 2021, 09:58:28 AM »
the Irvine slump in 2018 that lasted for three years as the rest of OC made solid price gains.

Do you have definitive proof of this other than OCHN? Seems like it was the same throughout OC.

USCTrojanCPA publishes the charts here monthly.  I'm surprised you haven't seen them.

Still don't see "slump" vs "solid price gains".

Even Cares' post details that they are closer than your statement is trying to imply.

His chart for the three years 2018-2020:

Irvine:  $860k to $900k = 5%  <--Slump
OC:      $670k to $790k = 18% <--Solid price gain

US Inflation over that time = 5.5%
So buyers in Irvine lost money in real terms!!

Yeah but what about financed buyers?  They made money right?
Not if they were borrowing money for 2-3% to finance an investment that only increased by 1.5% annually.

Offline Cares

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1311 on: November 18, 2021, 10:09:43 AM »
Well it's certainly convenient for your discussion to use housing price growth from 2018-2020 but then use inflation from 2018-2021?

Inflation from 2018-2020 was about 1.5% per year.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1312 on: November 18, 2021, 10:37:40 AM »
Well it's certainly convenient for your discussion to use housing price growth from 2018-2020 but then use inflation from 2018-2021?

Inflation from 2018-2020 was about 1.5% per year.

I used this source:

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

2018 ~ 2.4%
2019 ~ 1.8%
2020 ~ 1.2%

Cumulative inflation according to their calculator was 5.6%.

Offline Cares

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1313 on: November 18, 2021, 11:25:10 AM »
Inflation BETWEEN 2018 to 2020 was only 3% unless I have the wrong grasp on the concept.

2018's 2.4% is the inflation from 2017 to 2018 if I am understanding it correctly. Between a 3 year period 2018 to 2020 you only add 2 years worth of inflation numbers so 3% total or 1.5% per year.

Edit: Never mind I looked at the data more it is the average of full year.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2021, 11:31:19 AM by Cares »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1314 on: November 19, 2021, 03:22:19 PM »
5% gains in a higher price range is not a slump compared to 18% in a lower price range.

And remember... I've said that Irvine is quicker to rise and slower to fall... so even your "data" makes some sense.

And 5% is still up... what happened to the "pain" of the price drops you predicted?
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1315 on: November 29, 2021, 11:44:17 AM »
5% gains in a higher price range is not a slump compared to 18% in a lower price range.

And remember... I've said that Irvine is quicker to rise and slower to fall... so even your "data" makes some sense.

And 5% is still up... what happened to the "pain" of the price drops you predicted?

Quote
No?  Nothing?  Crickets.

Sweet Irvine pain feels good.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1316 on: November 29, 2021, 01:55:30 PM »
5% gains in a higher price range is not a slump compared to 18% in a lower price range.

And remember... I've said that Irvine is quicker to rise and slower to fall... so even your "data" makes some sense.

And 5% is still up... what happened to the "pain" of the price drops you predicted?

People partied on the Titanic as it was sinking too.  Ce la vie.

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1317 on: December 03, 2021, 10:23:26 PM »
Sweet Irvine pain feels good.

Sweet Irvine pain is bad for me.  I'm on Bluffs and Highland waitlist.

Bluffs 2 pricing:

Phase 23 - $1,425,000
Phase 24 - $1,445,000
upcoming phase 25 - $1,480,000

Highland 1 price has gone up about $100k since I got on the waitlist late September.

If it's not my turn soon, I'm going to be priced out.  :'(


Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1318 on: December 03, 2021, 10:38:22 PM »
Sweet Irvine pain feels good.

Sweet Irvine pain is bad for me.  I'm on Bluffs and Highland waitlist.

Bluffs 2 pricing:

Phase 23 - $1,425,000
Phase 24 - $1,445,000
upcoming phase 25 - $1,480,000

Highland 1 price has gone up about $100k since I got on the waitlist late September.

If it's not my turn soon, I'm going to be priced out.  :'(
Soria 1,2,3 are on the market waiting for you ;)

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1319 on: December 03, 2021, 10:46:44 PM »
Soria 1,2,3 are on the market waiting for you ;)

Funny thing is that we looked at Soria before Bluffs/Highland and actually really liked 2/3/4, but as soon as we went to Portola Springs, my wife really loved the area and lost interest in Soria. We were offered Soria 3 and turned it down.

 

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