Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 101046 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1125 on: November 08, 2019, 06:44:22 AM »
So if this was supposed to be a slowdown for the last year and a half, and so many people have saved money, why is no one posting about it?

Solar, lower interest rates and presidential candidates get more action.

The decline of Irvine real estate is old news now.  Really, what's left to discuss other than your growing losses?

It's all a paper loss until a sale is completed.  Anyhow, I always have buyers ask me....is this a good time to buy?  where is the market heading?  I tell them I have no idea where the market will go as it'll do what it wants but only buy if you plan on living in the home for 5-7+ years and the home checks most all of the boxes for you.  It's been proven that Irvine home prices have and will increase over the longer term.

Yeah. When you say this no one really questions you.

When I say it... my credibility and experience gets scrutinized.

:)

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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1126 on: November 08, 2019, 09:48:42 AM »
So if this was supposed to be a slowdown for the last year and a half, and so many people have saved money, why is no one posting about it?

Solar, lower interest rates and presidential candidates get more action.

The decline of Irvine real estate is old news now.  Really, what's left to discuss other than your growing losses?

It's all a paper loss until a sale is completed.  Anyhow, I always have buyers ask me....is this a good time to buy?  where is the market heading?  I tell them I have no idea where the market will go as it'll do what it wants but only buy if you plan on living in the home for 5-7+ years and the home checks most all of the boxes for you.  It's been proven that Irvine home prices have and will increase over the longer term.

Yeah. When you say this no one really questions you.

When I say it... my credibility and experience gets scrutinized.

:)

IHO, that’s what you’ve been saying all along.

Although, to be legit, you have to have CA BRE License # in your signatures. Ha ha.

Online zubs

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1127 on: December 05, 2019, 11:32:40 AM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-2020-may-apos-111119494.html

Article above says entry level homes will go up in 2020 while expensive homes remain flat.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1128 on: December 07, 2019, 06:34:27 PM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-2020-may-apos-111119494.html

Article above says entry level homes will go up in 2020 while expensive homes remain flat.

I can see that happening as the supply of lower end homes is a lot lower compares to higher end homes as a function of how many buyers there are in both markets.
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Offline Mety

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1129 on: December 09, 2019, 11:32:16 AM »
So this is Dec 2019. Turns out, there is no housing slow down!

Well, it sort of did slow down in end of 2018, and got kind of into a normal mode instead of an insane mode which was 2017.

I predicted a much worse scenario so I admit I was wrong. Although buying in 2019 became a much better choice than 2018 IMHO.

We shall see how it goes in 2020.

Offline daedalus

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1130 on: December 09, 2019, 11:05:53 PM »
Recession 2020! 

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1131 on: December 10, 2019, 06:51:52 AM »
So this is Dec 2019. Turns out, there is no housing slow down!

Well, it sort of did slow down in end of 2018, and got kind of into a normal mode instead of an insane mode which was 2017.

I predicted a much worse scenario so I admit I was wrong. Although buying in 2019 became a much better choice than 2018 IMHO.

We shall see how it goes in 2020.

Two things provided support for real estate in 2019....rates dropping over 1% and the economy stayed strong.  The market was fairly balances in 2019 for both buyers and sellers.  Good properties that were priced right sold quickly and overpriced one with bad locations/layouts/upgrades did not.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1132 on: December 19, 2019, 01:11:44 PM »
So this is Dec 2019. Turns out, there is no housing slow down!

Well, it sort of did slow down in end of 2018, and got kind of into a normal mode instead of an insane mode which was 2017.

I predicted a much worse scenario so I admit I was wrong. Although buying in 2019 became a much better choice than 2018 IMHO.

We shall see how it goes in 2020.

So have the price lags hit?

Or is someone going to tell me December of *next* year.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1133 on: December 25, 2019, 10:06:24 AM »
So this is Dec 2019. Turns out, there is no housing slow down!

Well, it sort of did slow down in end of 2018, and got kind of into a normal mode instead of an insane mode which was 2017.

I predicted a much worse scenario so I admit I was wrong. Although buying in 2019 became a much better choice than 2018 IMHO.

We shall see how it goes in 2020.

So have the price lags hit?

Or is someone going to tell me December of *next* year.

There is a few more days left in 2019, the number could still drop and crash hard, ha ha. :). Where is LL and his rhetorics.

Happy New Year, may 2020 be the year of great joy watching the housing market bring you joys. Whichever side you play for.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1134 on: January 07, 2020, 03:41:14 PM »
And December is gone.

Zillow and Redfin list a .4% to 1.2% drop from previous year.

What happen to the price lags?
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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I recommend:
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1135 on: January 10, 2020, 08:51:36 AM »
Housing is one of a few bright spots for 2020.

Cheers!!!

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1136 on: January 10, 2020, 10:39:11 AM »
I'm going to put a prediction out there for housing in 2020.  I think we will be flat to a slight pull back with buyers as we get closer to the election because of the fear of the unknown.  Rates will stay within 3.25% to 3.75%.  After the election if the market likes who got elected and we continue moving forward with the trade deal with China and rates stay in the 3% range, we can see some good housing gains in 2021.
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Offline OCLuvr

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1137 on: January 11, 2020, 12:25:31 AM »
I'm going to put a prediction out there for housing in 2020.  I think we will be flat to a slight pull back with buyers as we get closer to the election because of the fear of the unknown.  Rates will stay within 3.25% to 3.75%.  After the election if the market likes who got elected and we continue moving forward with the trade deal with China and rates stay in the 3% range, we can see some good housing gains in 2021.
Even with so much inventory?

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1138 on: January 11, 2020, 07:00:08 AM »
I'm going to put a prediction out there for housing in 2020.  I think we will be flat to a slight pull back with buyers as we get closer to the election because of the fear of the unknown.  Rates will stay within 3.25% to 3.75%.  After the election if the market likes who got elected and we continue moving forward with the trade deal with China and rates stay in the 3% range, we can see some good housing gains in 2021.
Even with so much inventory?

What's interesting is that inventory levels YOY are down for Nov & Dec while sales YOY are up for that same period for Irvine so the months of inventory has come down.  Just as a data point, I have had 5 new buyer (referrals and my move-up clients) in the past 2 weeks who are starting their home search plus I'm seeing more multiple counter offer situations on properties that I'm making offers on.  I'll post the data through Dec 2019 next week in my thread.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1139 on: January 11, 2020, 07:59:33 AM »
But wasn’t December when we would see price drops catch up to inventory drops?

Let’s be truthful here, was 2018-2019 really a significant “slowdown”? Sure, prices stopped rising but savings was mostly due to interest rates not dropping prices.

This was more like a letdown.

Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
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