Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 66097 times)

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Offline paperboyNC

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #975 on: July 15, 2019, 11:01:18 AM »
On one of those sites I look at, it shows rents were rising.

That jives with less people buying.

If housing is overbuilt / housing demand drops, rents will fall as well. Back in 2009/2010 every single "expert" seemed to be predicting sky-rocketing rents with all of the foreclosures while I predicted falling rents.

What actually happened:
Foreclosures bought up by investors and rented out: increase in supply
Foreclosed young homeowners moved in with mom & dad: reduce in demand
Employed bunked up: reduce in demand
Entire condo towers were turned into apartments: increase in supply
(https://www.hechtsolberg.com/sale-of-vantage-pointe-the-largest-mixed-use-high-rise-condominium-project-in-san-diego-sold-to-equity-residential/)

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #976 on: July 16, 2019, 11:14:46 AM »
Anecdotes from the front lines this week working with my buyer client:

- Made a reasonable offer (backed by comps) on a detached condo in CV listed for 21 days at $1m+. Seller balked and wanted higher than market value.
- Made a reasonable offer (backed by comps) on a detached condo in EW listed for 30 days at $900k+. Seller balked and wanted higher than market value.
- Visited Reserve and viewed Verdi, Vivo, Lago - a wide selection of inventory and all around $1.2m. Irvine Pacific is motivated and willing to accept offers.

In summary (not just based off this example), resale supply is low and the sellers have significant equity and are willing to wait the market out for their desired price. If they don't get it, they'll hold on or rent.

For new construction, there is a lot of supply - ranging from quick move-ins to dirt lots. Builders are open to offers and are increasing broker co-ops, but at the same time, slowing the construction timeline. I've seen more than 2 developments with homes that should've been completed in the 1st quarter of the year, but still incomplete and construction stalled so that, "the buyer can select their own flooring." My guess is we will continue seeing builders control inventory by slowing of new phase releases until stagnant inventory has been moved.

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Offline sell4u

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #977 on: July 17, 2019, 06:09:01 AM »
Recent OC reg article on rents.  Rents seem to be moving up fairly swiftly

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/07/12/los-angeles-orange-county-rent-inflation-up-5-8-biggest-hike-since-2008/

Online irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #978 on: August 07, 2019, 08:46:54 AM »
LA Times article (since I can't get through the OCReg paywall):

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-07-26/southern-california-home-prices-barely-budged-in-june

Quote
Southern California home prices rose only 1.2% in June from a year earlier, while sales fell 8.8%, reflecting a broad slowdown in the region’s pricey housing market.

The six-county region’s median price — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — clocked in at $541,250 last month, according to a report Friday from CoreLogic.

Although that price is a record, the modest rise indicates buyers aren’t willing or able to aggressively bid up homes after years of sharp price increases that have sparked renewed concerns over the lack of affordable housing in the Golden State.

So YOY, prices were slightly higher in June than last June. So, yes, slowdown in volume but prices did not go down significantly.

Quote
Here is a breakdown of prices and sales in each county:

In Los Angeles County, the median price rose 0.5% to $618,000 in June and sales fell 12.1%.
In Orange County, the median price slipped 0.3% to $738,000 and sales fell 9.4%.
In Riverside County, the median price climbed 5.3% to $399,000 and sales fell 4%.
In San Bernardino County, the median price rose 1.5% to $340,000 and sales fell 11.4%.
In Ventura County, the median price dropped 5.7% to $580,000 and sales rose 1.6%.
In San Diego County, the median price rose 2.6% to $590,000 and sales fell 7.4%.

Although the market has slowed, many economists say a crash in values is unlikely. The economy may not be strong enough to support steep price increases, they say, but a low rate of home building and continued job growth mean enough people will probably be willing to buy a home at, or at least near, today’s prices.

The California Assn. of Realtors recently revised its 2019 sales forecast, in large part because of falling mortgage rates. It still predicts the smallest annual price appreciation of the current real estate upswing, but the group now forecasts a 4% gain in the statewide median price for a previously owned single-family home. Before, it was predicting a 0.2% decline.

Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, said today’s tight lending standards will provide a barrier against a wave of foreclosures similar to the one last decade that helped crash the market.

So again, back to my original premise, while there may be a slowing in volume, if that doesn't reflect in pricing, what were people waiting for?

There were a few in this thread who claimed that prices would drop enough to wait, as far as I can tell, that didn't happen. So now what? Wait for December? Wait for 2020?
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Offline Mety

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #979 on: August 07, 2019, 11:46:25 AM »
LA Times article (since I can't get through the OCReg paywall):

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-07-26/southern-california-home-prices-barely-budged-in-june

Quote
Southern California home prices rose only 1.2% in June from a year earlier, while sales fell 8.8%, reflecting a broad slowdown in the region’s pricey housing market.

The six-county region’s median price — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — clocked in at $541,250 last month, according to a report Friday from CoreLogic.

Although that price is a record, the modest rise indicates buyers aren’t willing or able to aggressively bid up homes after years of sharp price increases that have sparked renewed concerns over the lack of affordable housing in the Golden State.

So YOY, prices were slightly higher in June than last June. So, yes, slowdown in volume but prices did not go down significantly.

Quote
Here is a breakdown of prices and sales in each county:

In Los Angeles County, the median price rose 0.5% to $618,000 in June and sales fell 12.1%.
In Orange County, the median price slipped 0.3% to $738,000 and sales fell 9.4%.
In Riverside County, the median price climbed 5.3% to $399,000 and sales fell 4%.
In San Bernardino County, the median price rose 1.5% to $340,000 and sales fell 11.4%.
In Ventura County, the median price dropped 5.7% to $580,000 and sales rose 1.6%.
In San Diego County, the median price rose 2.6% to $590,000 and sales fell 7.4%.

Although the market has slowed, many economists say a crash in values is unlikely. The economy may not be strong enough to support steep price increases, they say, but a low rate of home building and continued job growth mean enough people will probably be willing to buy a home at, or at least near, today’s prices.

The California Assn. of Realtors recently revised its 2019 sales forecast, in large part because of falling mortgage rates. It still predicts the smallest annual price appreciation of the current real estate upswing, but the group now forecasts a 4% gain in the statewide median price for a previously owned single-family home. Before, it was predicting a 0.2% decline.

Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, said today’s tight lending standards will provide a barrier against a wave of foreclosures similar to the one last decade that helped crash the market.

So again, back to my original premise, while there may be a slowing in volume, if that doesn't reflect in pricing, what were people waiting for?

There were a few in this thread who claimed that prices would drop enough to wait, as far as I can tell, that didn't happen. So now what? Wait for December? Wait for 2020?

Man, who waited? What a waste of time, huh?

Offline zubs

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #980 on: August 07, 2019, 12:06:03 PM »
Nah...if you waited, you get to pick from 800 homes instead of 500 homes...it's still reason to wait.

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