Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 304982 times)

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Offline CalBears96

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1755 on: May 29, 2022, 11:36:34 AM »
Our SZ got delay till next year because they switch to a new model & stop making the old one. We’lll use our spare fridge in the garage. Everything takes a while to make nowadays.  Our Bassett sofa set will take 4 months.

We also bought a set of Speed Queen TR7/TD7 at Renwes. Top load old school commercial style, little more expensive than other brands but supposed to last 20+ years. I dont want to bring those machine up and down the stair when they break. 😀

Which SZ model did you order? Also, is yours 42"? Or is Fresco also 36"? We have 36" at Bluffs.

We originally ordered the Classic at the end of Dec, which they would discontinue after the Jan 2022. However, when I ordered, I chose tubular handle. The fridge would arrive early September. A couple weeks later, we heard from IP that they would switch to Wolf appliances, as you well know, and they come with professional handle. So we wanted to change to professional handle on the fridge as well, but they couldn't do it.

So I cancelled that order (with Renwes) and ordered a French Door with water dispenser. Originally, we would get it in June, but then it was delayed to August, but now I'm supposed to get it on July 1st.

Offline Danimal

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1756 on: May 29, 2022, 01:32:34 PM »
Our SZ got delay till next year because they switch to a new model & stop making the old one. We’lll use our spare fridge in the garage. Everything takes a while to make nowadays.  Our Bassett sofa set will take 4 months.

We also bought a set of Speed Queen TR7/TD7 at Renwes. Top load old school commercial style, little more expensive than other brands but supposed to last 20+ years. I dont want to bring those machine up and down the stair when they break. 😀

Which SZ model did you order? Also, is yours 42"? Or is Fresco also 36"? We have 36" at Bluffs.

We originally ordered the Classic at the end of Dec, which they would discontinue after the Jan 2022. However, when I ordered, I chose tubular handle. The fridge would arrive early September. A couple weeks later, we heard from IP that they would switch to Wolf appliances, as you well know, and they come with professional handle. So we wanted to change to professional handle on the fridge as well, but they couldn't do it.

So I cancelled that order (with Renwes) and ordered a French Door with water dispenser. Originally, we would get it in June, but then it was delayed to August, but now I'm supposed to get it on July 1st.

I ordered the same 36” French one w/o water dispenser. Either Pacific Sales or SZ screwed me over. They said SZ no longer makes the current model and gave me new model w/o extra cost but it wont be released till next year. I placed the order end of November last year. Someone basically got $12k interest free loan for at least 1 year 1/2 from me  8)

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1757 on: May 29, 2022, 08:00:22 PM »
I ordered the same 36” French one w/o water dispenser. Either Pacific Sales or SZ screwed me over. They said SZ no longer makes the current model and gave me new model w/o extra cost but it wont be released till next year. I placed the order end of November last year. Someone basically got $12k interest free loan for at least 1 year 1/2 from me  8)

Really? I ordered on Jan 22 of this year. Supposedly, if I ordered the French door w/o dispenser, I would have got it in April.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1758 on: May 31, 2022, 10:45:22 AM »
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1759 on: May 31, 2022, 12:24:53 PM »
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)
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Offline someguy

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1760 on: May 31, 2022, 01:46:29 PM »

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve

Remember they've been manipulating the longer end of the yield curve for some time now via QE (purchasing US treasuries and MBS).  Tomorrow they start the opposite, QT (selling treasuries and MBS).  The New York Fed's trading operation currently owns 38% of all outstanding US Treasury Securities with 10 to 30 year maturities.  A seller that big is unprecedented, so we'll find out what happens together.  Look for the longer end of the yield curve to rise.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-quantitative-tightening-is-about-to-arrive-what-that-might-mean-for-markets-11654024143

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1761 on: May 31, 2022, 03:13:24 PM »

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve

Remember they've been manipulating the longer end of the yield curve for some time now via QE (purchasing US treasuries and MBS).  Tomorrow they start the opposite, QT (selling treasuries and MBS).  The New York Fed's trading operation currently owns 38% of all outstanding US Treasury Securities with 10 to 30 year maturities.  A seller that big is unprecedented, so we'll find out what happens together.  Look for the longer end of the yield curve to rise.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-quantitative-tightening-is-about-to-arrive-what-that-might-mean-for-markets-11654024143

True, it'll be interesting to see what happens BUT if the market continues to melt down and we continue to give the highest free world interest rates you may see bids come in from foreign buyers.
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Offline someguy

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1762 on: May 31, 2022, 03:27:27 PM »
[quote author=USCTrojanCPA link=topic=16533.msg394518#msg394518 date=1654035204

True, it'll be interesting to see what happens BUT if the market continues to melt down and we continue to give the highest free world interest rates you may see bids come in from foreign buyers.
[/quote]

Good point, as our "risk free" yield rises it will attract buyers, which may dampen the yield increase.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1763 on: June 01, 2022, 02:44:14 PM »
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)

Well, it was nice while it lasted....

Mortgage Rates Erased a Majority of Recent Drop in Past 2 Days

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06012022

Offline OCtoSV

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1764 on: June 01, 2022, 06:53:30 PM »
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1765 on: June 01, 2022, 07:39:05 PM »
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.

I've been telling all of my buyers for years that if you aren't gonna be living in the home for 5+ years then you shouldn't be purchasing because the near term can be volatile.  I'm purchasing a home myself with eyes wide open and plan on living in that home for 10+ years as it is the unicorn that I've been searching for over 2 years for.
Martin Mania, CPA
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mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

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Have license, will travel!

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1766 on: June 01, 2022, 07:50:25 PM »
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.

In time of uncertainty, there will be less demand for big ticket items. Couple that with the incoming volatility of the hiking cycles, banks are flush with cash from QT of the FED which banks will reduce the rate to spurs borrowing or encourage more transactions. Mortgage rate is stubborn low and continue.

Rate of 7 or 8 will come into the pictures only if the hot housing begins again, which many on here clearly stated that it is cooling.

Now it’s up to an individual to choose to buy when the market cools and options open up or wait for a bidding war is up to them to decide.

Offline Irvinehomeseeker

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1767 on: June 01, 2022, 10:01:51 PM »
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.
The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.
I guess you are referring to this 1.6M detached condo- https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/127-Charcoal-92602/home/165947551  No upgrades! The other one with some upgrades at 1.7M also went pending. As long as buyers in Irvine are willing to buy at these high prices, buyers market seems like a far stretch for now!

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1768 on: June 02, 2022, 08:57:46 AM »
What happens if interest rates fall (which will happen when the economy and inflation slow)?

Lower interest rates will stimulate the economy, but I'm not expecting that for awhile.  With inflation so high, interest rates are still very much negative, which is fanning the flame of further inflation.  The Fed wants the headline inflation number back to 2.5% and that's going to require a lot more tightening.

The Fed can only control the short term of the curve and if it gets too aggressive with the raising the Fed funds rate too high they'll cause longer term rates to fall and the yield curve invert because market participants will start pricing in a recession which is when longer term rates will fall.  The more aggressive the Fed gets by increasing rates higher the lower longer term rates will go and the deeper the recession will be, simple economy 101 at work.  Longer term interest rates are already down about 30-40bps from the peak a few weeks ago.  Unlike your average realtor, I actually have an undergrad econ degree.  ;)

Economics is an art, not a science, unlike my computer science degree which trains the brain to operate via raw logic, especially the USC undergrad program where I coded an OS, a compiler and designed and simulated a CPU in a TTL design package, then went into sales. The long end is going to get pummeled by massive open market MBS sales (can't be rolled over as rates are so high refi market is frozen) and lack of Japanese buyers for UST due to rising rates in Japan (finally!)

I'm pretty sure you know 7-8% mortage rates are coming soon, and anyone buying now will face many years of being technically underwater based on purchase price. A responsible agent would be putting that scenario in front of buyers that are emotionally attached to their purchases, especially wives that demand paying $1.6M for a detached condo.

I've been telling all of my buyers for years that if you aren't gonna be living in the home for 5+ years then you shouldn't be purchasing because the near term can be volatile.  I'm purchasing a home myself with eyes wide open and plan on living in that home for 10+ years as it is the unicorn that I've been searching for over 2 years for.

Nice. The people that can do it will do it when everyone freak out. Smart move.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #1769 on: June 02, 2022, 10:46:15 AM »
Economics is an art, not a science...

Based on this premise, one cannot accurately predict timing due to the impact of non-fundamental (ie emotional) factors that is usually in play with art vs science.

The last 15 years seens to prove that for real estate.
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