Market Top

Depends on the price point. Anything less than 850K is still flying out of the market. Maybe it is taking little longer
 
meccos12 said:
Im gonna call a market top this summer.  I predict prices going down from here on out. 

Don't prices usually dip after the summer selling season? Isn't this like saying the temperature will go down after the summer?
 
Market may be short term overbought but I still see it inching up that wall of worry. Barring a dramatic event.

I actually feel there are too many bears. Once they finally capitulate is when I'd be worried. Just my two cents.
 
Disagree. Real estate will be up another 4-5% next summer. Just not a lot of motivated sellers. Many will rent rather than sell low.
 
Real estate ETFs YTD performance:

ITB: -12.53% (ishares US home construction)
XHB: -10.26% (SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF)

[I?m not buying]
 
Manhattan prices down 5-7%? Top end hurting downstream. The tax repercussions are finally being felt and will continue to dog the market. That and rates. And the usual cycle. I already see so many price reductions o. The market here and in San Diego. We're waiting until later this year to buy again.
 
all of you calling the top, please put your money where your mouth is and sell your home.  should be a big profit for you!
 
Kings said:
all of you calling the top, please put your money where your mouth is and sell your home.  should be a big profit for you!

Numbers don?t lie. Look at the YTD RE ETF performances.
 
The reason I predict prices will go up is basic supply and demand.

Contrary to popular belief, demand for housing doesn't matter if it's renters or buyers.

A lesson from 2009 - rents fell
Back in 2009, every pundit predict a surge in rents due to all of the foreclosed homeowners moving into rentals. It never happened.

Why?
  • Oversupply: New construction had overbuilt housing, particularly in less desirable neighborhoods
  • Lack of demand: As millions of Americans lost their jobs, faced paycuts and saw their investments plummet, they bunked up. Recent college grads moved in with their parents, singles that had bought a condo rented a room somewhere, immigrants went back to their home country where cost of living was less.

In 2018, housing demand (rentals + purchases) is very very strong and supply is limited. If fewer households buyer a home but can still afford their own place, demand for rentals will increase - spurring investors to buy the same homes.
 
Jarule046 said:
Manhattan prices down 5-7%? Top end hurting downstream. The tax repercussions are finally being felt and will continue to dog the market. That and rates. And the usual cycle. I already see so many price reductions o. The market here and in San Diego. We're waiting until later this year to buy again.

I think that?s smart. Maybe even wait until next year. After people do their taxes. I think that will be the fall out.

 
eyephone said:
Real estate ETFs YTD performance:

ITB: -12.53% (ishares US home construction)
XHB: -10.26% (SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF)

[I?m not buying]

When I did my brief glance at price reductions out of state. I did come across new homes with price reductions. I am not talking about expensive homes either. (Is it that bad?)
 
eyephone said:
Kings said:
all of you calling the top, please put your money where your mouth is and sell your home.  should be a big profit for you!

Numbers don?t lie. Look at the YTD RE ETF performances.

You are comparing stock market REIT prices with residential real estate prices?  Commercial real estate does not have the emotional factor that residential real estate does.  REITs will always perform poorly in a rising interest rate environment because one of the main reasons why investors buy REITs is for the yield.
 
The ETFs: Homebuilders, home improvement, builder suppliers

I guess we can drill down the etf. If you like.
 
eyephone said:
The ETFs: Homebuilders, home improvement, builder suppliers

eyephone said:
The ETFs: Homebuilders, home improvement, builder suppliers

I guess we can drill down the etf. If you like.

I took a look at the charts...both were basically flat from 2013 to 2016 while home prices surged in 2013 and continued to increase in 2014-2016 at a slower pace.  Again, trying to take stock performance and try to translate it to what Irvine homes prices might do isn't a great indicator.  I also said, keep your eye on inventory levels and # of months of supply of months...that's your tea leaf.  Yes, we have slowed a bit as we were at 2 months of inventory back in the winter/spring and now we are at 2.7 months of inventory today but that is mostly due to the increase in supply in the $1m+ market.
 
paperboyNC said:
The reason I predict prices will go up is basic supply and demand.

Contrary to popular belief, demand for housing doesn't matter if it's renters or buyers.

A lesson from 2009 - rents fell
Back in 2009, every pundit predict a surge in rents due to all of the foreclosed homeowners moving into rentals. It never happened.

Why?
  • Oversupply: New construction had overbuilt housing, particularly in less desirable neighborhoods
  • Lack of demand: As millions of Americans lost their jobs, faced paycuts and saw their investments plummet, they bunked up. Recent college grads moved in with their parents, singles that had bought a condo rented a room somewhere, immigrants went back to their home country where cost of living was less.

In 2018, housing demand (rentals + purchases) is very very strong and supply is limited. If fewer households buyer a home but can still afford their own place, demand for rentals will increase - spurring investors to buy the same homes.

There is a lot of demands just can't afford to buy. Prices are high, which forces POTENTIAL BUYERS to rent and see. The Irvine Company play this game well. They know their audiences and read people pockets very well. Another huge apartment complex will soon pop up on Sand Cayon and 5. This too will get fill up very quickly. Builders will build up, more vertical for a bit less price. It too will get gobble up. So to think this is top is premature. The IRVINE market has entered mature cycle, not necessary top.
 
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