Author Topic: Market Top  (Read 14328 times)

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Offline meccos12

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #195 on: November 05, 2018, 11:19:02 AM »
For example, the Housing Analysis thread you said "opinions do not matter". My response was that they do and that data alone isn't what people come to forums for. Then you went off saying I strawman'd you because I said you said only data matters. That in fact was a strawman because that's not what I said, what I said was that opinions are valuable and data alone isn't enough.
Do you even know what a strawman is?
Did I ever say opinions do not matter?  I dare you to go back and quote exactly what I said.  My exact quote was "In the end, no one should really care about my opinion".  The context of what I really said and what you insinuate are completely different.  This is exactly your problem.  Like Eyephone says, you dont try to engage in discussion.  You try to engage in argument. 


you started this "Market Top" thread with just your opinion and no data.
I have provided plenty of data.  Anyone can simply search this blog the last couple weeks and see.  Have you?



Uh... so should I claim strawman here? Maybe you don't know the history of IHB, TI and myself. This forum came from the IHB forums which were part of the IHB blog. Back then, there were people, even Larry himself, claiming that the data says that to get back to fundamental pricing, Irvine prices have to drop by 50%. Later that was corrected to 40%... but even that didn't happen. I argued back then that I just couldn't see Irvine prices dropping that low. 20% was something I could see... but even then, much of housing stock that I was shopping for, never even dropped that low. So despite what the data said, the Irvine market didn't follow what people were suggesting would happen.

So I mentioned it because it's about history and the non-fundamental behavior of Irvine pricing. If you don't think that's relevant to this discussion, then that's your opinion.
You clearly have no idea what a strawman argument is.
Claims made by OTHER people on a DIFFERENT blog 10 years ago is relevant to me in what way?  You made the claim that people were calling for a crash, you tried to tie me and others into that group.  The most ironic thing is that NO ONE here claimed a crash, it was literally 10 years ago on another blog.  REALLY? 

Yes, I understand that. But at the same time... what value is it then to call "market top" or to say (not you) "a slowdown is coming"? Without other things like "timeline" (which you agree was important) and "quantity" (which I think is important), it makes it tough for a buyer to make a decision for themselves.

DIdnt you literally say in this same post that "opinions do matter" and thats what people come to this blog for?  In the very same post, you claim I stated opinions do not matter (which is completely untrue), yet you blast people for having an opinion?    The hipocrisy is unreal!  BTW the slowdown isnt coming, it is here.


You keep saying I implied it or claimed it but I kept telling you that I questioned if this slowdown isn't seasonal because "SEASONALITY IS THE DEFAULT!!". Seasonality implies itself... just like I don't decide when it's going to be fall, winter or whatever. Go back and look at all the charts for the last 30 years. Even during the last 2 crashes, sales volume and/or prices go up and down with the seasons.
I could literally quote you the times you said this was seasonal or implied it.  Anyone who has read this thread knows it.
Do you realize that seasonality can exist within actual changes in trend?  Just because there was seasonal variability does that negative or minimize actual changes that are occuring?  Also do you understand what YoY changes mean?  This literally eliminates seasonality from data. 



after responding half way through your post, I realize I am the idiot.  Why?  because I keep taking the time to respond to your senseless posts.  Ill stop here.  I lost about an hour of my life ill never get back. 

Offline meccos12

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #196 on: November 05, 2018, 11:22:42 AM »
Meccos12: don’t worry about him. This is not the first time he has pulled this stunt. I kind of feel sorry for him.

See... this is why I refer to you how I do. Because you post zero value to *certain* discussions (not all). What does "feeling sorry for him" have to do with anything being discussed here?

As for "stunt", what are you referring to? Because I actually try to engage in discussions with other posters? Because I challenge people to back up what they post? Because I'm asking questions that some people don't know the answer to?

Despite what meccos thinks of my posts, I actually put some effort into them rather than regurgitating the obvious.

You are not challenging people. Yeah you are engaging people I’m not sure in a good way. People have been putting up backup to support their position. (Actual statistics, articles, graphs) I don’t know what you have for your support.

You put efforts to get into arguments with a lot of people. (I guess you have the right to do that) It’s really funny how you mention my name into other conversations when I’m not part of it. I’m setting the record straight that your continuous attack on me and others are baseless.

Exactly this. 

I guess you haven't read my post yet.

Honestly it hurts my head to respond to nonsense from you.  I have yet seen anything substantial from your posts that is convincing in any way.  until then, id rather waste my time counting the number of grass blades in my backyard. 

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #197 on: November 05, 2018, 12:09:27 PM »
For example, the Housing Analysis thread you said "opinions do not matter". My response was that they do and that data alone isn't what people come to forums for. Then you went off saying I strawman'd you because I said you said only data matters. That in fact was a strawman because that's not what I said, what I said was that opinions are valuable and data alone isn't enough.
Do you even know what a strawman is?
Did I ever say opinions do not matter?  I dare you to go back and quote exactly what I said.  My exact quote was "In the end, no one should really care about my opinion".  The context of what I really said and what you insinuate are completely different.  This is exactly your problem.  Like Eyephone says, you dont try to engage in discussion.  You try to engage in argument. 


you started this "Market Top" thread with just your opinion and no data.
I have provided plenty of data.  Anyone can simply search this blog the last couple weeks and see.  Have you?



Uh... so should I claim strawman here? Maybe you don't know the history of IHB, TI and myself. This forum came from the IHB forums which were part of the IHB blog. Back then, there were people, even Larry himself, claiming that the data says that to get back to fundamental pricing, Irvine prices have to drop by 50%. Later that was corrected to 40%... but even that didn't happen. I argued back then that I just couldn't see Irvine prices dropping that low. 20% was something I could see... but even then, much of housing stock that I was shopping for, never even dropped that low. So despite what the data said, the Irvine market didn't follow what people were suggesting would happen.

So I mentioned it because it's about history and the non-fundamental behavior of Irvine pricing. If you don't think that's relevant to this discussion, then that's your opinion.
You clearly have no idea what a strawman argument is.
Claims made by OTHER people on a DIFFERENT blog 10 years ago is relevant to me in what way?  You made the claim that people were calling for a crash, you tried to tie me and others into that group.  The most ironic thing is that NO ONE here claimed a crash, it was literally 10 years ago on another blog.  REALLY? 

Yes, I understand that. But at the same time... what value is it then to call "market top" or to say (not you) "a slowdown is coming"? Without other things like "timeline" (which you agree was important) and "quantity" (which I think is important), it makes it tough for a buyer to make a decision for themselves.

DIdnt you literally say in this same post that "opinions do matter" and thats what people come to this blog for?  In the very same post, you claim I stated opinions do not matter (which is completely untrue), yet you blast people for having an opinion?    The hipocrisy is unreal!  BTW the slowdown isnt coming, it is here.


You keep saying I implied it or claimed it but I kept telling you that I questioned if this slowdown isn't seasonal because "SEASONALITY IS THE DEFAULT!!". Seasonality implies itself... just like I don't decide when it's going to be fall, winter or whatever. Go back and look at all the charts for the last 30 years. Even during the last 2 crashes, sales volume and/or prices go up and down with the seasons.
I could literally quote you the times you said this was seasonal or implied it.  Anyone who has read this thread knows it.
Do you realize that seasonality can exist within actual changes in trend?  Just because there was seasonal variability does that negative or minimize actual changes that are occuring?  Also do you understand what YoY changes mean?  This literally eliminates seasonality from data. 



after responding half way through your post, I realize I am the idiot.  Why?  because I keep taking the time to respond to your senseless posts.  Ill stop here.  I lost about an hour of my life ill never get back. 

Wow. I'll try again:

Where did I tie *you* to the people who claimed the crash 10 years ago? I was just explaining how data back then did not end up supporting the result so the possibility for data now could do that. That in no way claims that you were one of those people.

Again, no intent or tone so it seemed to me so maybe I misunderstood you but when you say:

Quote
In the end, no one should really care about my opinion.

What am I supposed to take that as? This was on top of your reasoning as to why you won't answer my questions. The implication of that, to me, is that *your* opinion isn't important (which I don't agree, I think your opinion is important). So to follow that, if no one should really care about your opinion, why do you start a thread with just your opinion? Your data did not come until later... it was not in the first post of this thread (am I wrong about that?).

I did not "blast anyone for having an opinion", I was questioning why, if you think your opinion should not be cared about by anyone, then why would you post it? It just seemed inconsistent to me. Show me where I'm blasting anyone for having an opinion... that's sounds like strawman to me.

How does YOY eliminate seasonality? That is an honest question because the term YOY implies seasonality to me.

And I apologize if my posts seem senseless, I've been trying to explain as best I can. Maybe I'm just not using the right words. You still think I'm intentionally trying to strawman and as I've said, that's not what I'm doing.

As for being argumentative, that takes two people and I feel just the same about you. Instead of trying to see I'm not intending to use strawman, I feel you are going out of your way to apply strawman to everything I'm saying.

I'm trying to work through this miscommunication but you think what I'm saying is just nonsense. So let's leave it at that.
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Offline meccos12

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #198 on: November 08, 2018, 08:07:51 AM »

In the Housing Anlaysis thread, another member posted how inventory was high yet prices are still high in places like Seattle.


Bad example to use.  Do you realize what is happening in Seattle right now?  Sales are plummeting, inventory is skyrocketing and they are actually seeing prices fall now.  This is the beginning so who knows how bad it will get there.   Based on the trend, it doesnt seem like it will get better any time soon. 


Just to follow up...

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-prices-down-80000-from-peak-amid-unprecedented-spike-in-homes-sitting-unsold/


Offline OCAgentGold

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #199 on: November 13, 2018, 12:09:13 PM »
If this helps, you wont see any home being built on ICDC Land going down, they just went up actually. The best you will get is incentives. Remember, Irvine Co. is not in YOU'RE hurry, you can go buy some funky house from one if the nationals in 5 Points, and Irvine Co. will be here after they are gone. Your best buy in the city, for consistent quality, customer service, longevity, and will always be here, California Pacific Homes. Granted they wont win a ton of architectural awards, but they have always been here, and will always be here with one of the best values for the dollar. My business in my other markets, San Diego and Inland Empire, still going very strong.

Offline ThirtySomethingWEquity

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #200 on: November 13, 2018, 03:04:05 PM »
The best you will get is incentives.

Good enough for me.  Landscaping on a detached condo is going to be what, anywhere from 20k to 60k, and upgrades can easily be 50k if you just get a few upgrades (nothing crazy or structural).   I was days away from putting a deposit down on a new development when I decided to wait things out a bit, turns out the next phase went a few thousand lower.  No incentives yet for the yet to be built houses. 

Offline meccos12

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #201 on: November 16, 2018, 03:50:32 PM »
"The SHIFT in the Orange County housing market continues. The Expected Market Time increased to its highest level since January 2011 and just eclipsed the 120 days mark and tilting more towards a buyers market."

-Steve Thomas from Reports on Housing.

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Offline meccos12

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #202 on: November 19, 2018, 03:06:04 PM »
Latest housing numbers in OC: (Reports on Housing)

1. Overall expected time on market at 122 days, making it officially a slight buyers market now.  first time since Jan 2011. 
2.  Inventory at 7218 - 53% higher YoY. 
3.  Demand at 2314 - 30% lower YoY.  Lowest since 2007


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Offline Mety

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #203 on: November 19, 2018, 03:45:58 PM »
Latest housing numbers in OC: (Reports on Housing)

1. Overall expected time on market at 122 days, making it officially a slight buyers market now.  first time since Jan 2011. 
2.  Inventory at 7218 - 53% higher YoY. 
3.  Demand at 2314 - 30% lower YoY.  Lowest since 2007

Yes, I think we can say it’s a buyer’s market indeed. I’ve heard even the realtors say that. We will see how long it will stay that way.
#fepo

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #204 on: November 19, 2018, 05:47:44 PM »
Latest housing numbers in OC: (Reports on Housing)

1. Overall expected time on market at 122 days, making it officially a slight buyers market now.  first time since Jan 2011. 
2.  Inventory at 7218 - 53% higher YoY. 
3.  Demand at 2314 - 30% lower YoY.  Lowest since 2007

Yes, I think we can say it’s a buyer’s market indeed. I’ve heard even the realtors say that. We will see how long it will stay that way.

Not all real estate agents say that.

Offline meccos12

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #205 on: November 19, 2018, 07:14:34 PM »
I think this chart says a lot.  Look at the rate of increase in inventory as well as how prolonged the elevated inventory is late into the year.  If one extrapolates this data, inventory beginning 2019 will be high.  We could see >10K homes for sale in 2019 at peak inventory levels during summer months.    Last time we saw inventory that high was in 2011 when it peaked at above 11k after which it dropped continuously and furiously to 3500 in 2012.   in 2014 when the market briefly slowed down we saw inventory peak at 8k, however besides that, peak inventory levels have been between high 5000's to low 7000's at best.  2019 will be an interesting year in my opinion. 

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Offline Mety

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Re: Market Top
« Reply #206 on: November 20, 2018, 09:48:07 AM »
Latest housing numbers in OC: (Reports on Housing)

1. Overall expected time on market at 122 days, making it officially a slight buyers market now.  first time since Jan 2011. 
2.  Inventory at 7218 - 53% higher YoY. 
3.  Demand at 2314 - 30% lower YoY.  Lowest since 2007

Yes, I think we can say it’s a buyer’s market indeed. I’ve heard even the realtors say that. We will see how long it will stay that way.

Not all real estate agents say that.

True. But one of them also said the market might pick up in Spring 2019 so the point was NOW is the time to buy. lol. I guess some people actually fall for smooth talk like that.
#fepo

 

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