Author Topic: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine  (Read 2840 times)

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #30 on: July 19, 2018, 11:26:16 AM »
Just don’t blame the seller, but are the real estate agents to blame also regarding the high prices?

Two signature are on the listing contract.  ;)

Nah...RE agent advises but client decide on the price.  That's not to say that there are no bad RE agents who oversell to the client.


Some agents try to do the tricks. They promise the price they can't keep up with and the seller falls in love with that price tag. Then after the home sits for 2 months with no offers, the home finally gets delisted or the price reduction continues.

It's all about the numbers that's really important IMO. Negotiation skills, good looking flyers, and all those 3D VR tour are nice to have, but it really does come down to the listing price number that will sell the home. And I always laugh at that '888' numbers they list with. I don't think that really attracts FCB anymore. Or does anyone think it really works?


Interestingly, I've only had the opposite conversations with realtors.  I want to sell at X and the realtors all try to discourage me from that price.  Some straight up tell me "I'll never get it".

Those are agents that want a "slam dunk" listing where they set the bar so low with the seller that when the home sells at a higher price than their overly conservative estimate they hope to look like a superstar to their client. Instances where I've "under priced" some of my listings, the mutually agreed upon sales price that I have with the seller is materially above the list price.
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Offline woodburyowner

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #31 on: July 19, 2018, 11:38:44 AM »
The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #32 on: July 19, 2018, 11:41:11 AM »
The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 

This is very true and tends to happen in situations where there are multiple offers on a home.  An emotional buyer will basically outbid themselves to get the home.  I've had a handful of those situations where the ultimate buyer had the highest offer (higher than even the best and final counter from the 2nd highest offer) and they increased their offer amount by $20k-$40k from their original offer.
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Offline Kings

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #33 on: July 19, 2018, 03:10:08 PM »
The flipside of the argument is that some listings do close at a WTF price.  Every seller has the mindset, it just takes one buyer... a buyer that gets emotionally attached to a particular home and overbids. 

This is very true and tends to happen in situations where there are multiple offers on a home.  An emotional buyer will basically outbid themselves to get the home.  I've had a handful of those situations where the ultimate buyer had the highest offer (higher than even the best and final counter from the 2nd highest offer) and they increased their offer amount by $20k-$40k from their original offer.

i would imagine these properties have a unique selling feature like A+ location, rare floorplan, or oversized yard

Offline Halos

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #34 on: July 19, 2018, 08:18:54 PM »
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

Let's all stamp our feet on the ground in a fit of rage for 2 minutes please




Offline mgc949

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #35 on: July 20, 2018, 03:10:28 AM »
I seem to be seing more homes being listed AND a lot of price reductions lately. Their is talk of a bubble as I'm sure most know....Do you think a home in Northpark would sell faster than a home at the Great Park or Porola Springs since it is Guard Gated, has 5 pools, tennis courts, lower HOA, etc OR would buyers still prefer a newer home even though you might not get your own drive way since everthing under $1.5 is in a motor court...lol

Offline Halos

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2018, 07:33:57 AM »
I seem to be seing more homes being listed AND a lot of price reductions lately. Their is talk of a bubble as I'm sure most know....Do you think a home in Northpark would sell faster than a home at the Great Park or Porola Springs since it is Guard Gated, has 5 pools, tennis courts, lower HOA, etc OR would buyers still prefer a newer home even though you might not get your own drive way since everthing under $1.5 is in a motor court...lol

Sales down 20% YoY in So Cal
Inventory up 213% YoY in So Cal

Global luxury RE is slowing down everywhere. Definitely in a bubble, with price declines just starting.

I think Northpark would be a much better choice than GP or PS.

Offline sell4u

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #37 on: July 21, 2018, 06:15:08 AM »
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

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Offline Irvine Dream

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #38 on: July 21, 2018, 10:00:28 AM »
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS
It will be awesome if you can go back to 2003, then we can see how much correlation to price vs no of listing, atleast 2 up cylces and 1 down cycle

Offline kpatnps

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #39 on: July 21, 2018, 06:42:11 PM »
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts? 

Offline sell4u

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #40 on: July 22, 2018, 06:01:20 AM »
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts? 

Not sure if it's significant acceleration vs bouncing off the bottom of low inventory #'s. I haven't seen Irvine go farther than the low 700's in the past few years. 
Orange County Active Properties
7/18 - 6367
7/17 - 5716
7/16 - 7028
7/15 - 6711


Offline Rizdak

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #41 on: July 22, 2018, 07:05:32 AM »
OC Register leading with this article today on demand and supply... some interesting stats.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/07/22/are-builders-catching-up-to-southern-californias-housing-shortage/

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #42 on: July 22, 2018, 11:38:36 AM »
OC Register leading with this article today on demand and supply... some interesting stats.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/07/22/are-builders-catching-up-to-southern-californias-housing-shortage/

Demands is always there. Qualifications and loans approval is another. This is the reason why risks for major melt down eliminated. We will have minimal price decrease in SoCal especially Irvine due to the facts that those loans were obtained with substantial skins in the game and Dodd-Frank lending rules has protected the system from crazy, greedy lending practices.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #43 on: July 22, 2018, 12:33:26 PM »
Not sure about selling fast enough, but regarding inventory....
7/18/18 - 699 active properties in Irvine
7/19/17 -569
7/22/16 - 732
7/22/15 - 680
Source is MLS

So 2018 has a 23% increase in inventory compared to 2017.  What would also be telling is the trajectory of this increase.  I saw Steve Thomas' report on housing and it seems the acceleration is quite significant suggesting this may increase more in the following months.  Any thoughts? 

Inventory levels tend to start dropping after Labor Day and will keep decreasing until Christmas/New Years (this is the low point of inventory).  The peak of inventory tends to be July/Aug.
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Offline i1

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #44 on: July 22, 2018, 03:44:36 PM »
Bingo, many of the listings that I lose are to agents who promise these "pie in the sky" prices to sellers where I tell them what they can reasonably expect to sell their home for.  What happens?  The home sits and sits and sits followed by one price then another and then another until it eventually either gets de-listed OR it closes for a price at or below of what I said it would have.  I'm just not the type of agent to blow smoke up my client's butt, I'm very analytical and back-up my estimates with hard data.  As I tell my clients....numbers never lie, only idiot realtors do.  haha
Correct me if I'm wrong but from what i can tell, your pricing strategy seems to generally be to list for slightly below market value, create a multiple offer situation and then generally the seller can get slightly over list price for a final transaction price either at or marginally above other comps. This creates a very quick and efficient sale with less time needed.

I've seen other agents who also like to list below market value to create an auction environment. Do you think there are different situations or market conditions where by listing too low, you might anchor the price negotiation at too low of a starting point (i.e., buyers are only willing to overbid by X amount and if we list too low, it's harder to get above market value)? Perhaps by listing closer to market value (or even very marginally above in certain cases), a higher sales price could be achieved, though perhaps taking slightly longer to complete a sale?
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