Author Topic: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine  (Read 5319 times)

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Offline Mety

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More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« on: July 18, 2018, 02:17:48 PM »
Does anyone else feel like now there are more homes being listed and not selling fast enough? I do, especially compare to last year around this time where homes were selling like within a week to enter into escrow.

Currently Redfin says there are 850 homes in the market. Zillow says 922. I guess they are not super accurate since there are new constructions involved, but we can assume there are about 850 homes in the market listed for sale.

Now, if we reach more than 1000 listed homes, are we in some kind of change in terms of the supply and demand relationship?

I do however feel like it's still the sellers' market, but I'm feeling the shift might be coming.

Any thoughts? Disagreement? Who knows? it might be just one of those phases it comes and goes and the market will reach even higher listing prices.


Offline eyephone

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2018, 02:21:26 PM »
Read my previous posts. It says it all.

Offline Mety

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2018, 02:24:19 PM »
Read my previous posts. It says it all.

Which one? You have many posts.
Your latest post was, "Never ever prepay for service."

Offline eyephone

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2018, 02:29:35 PM »
Good point. The post regarding Redfin CEO housing prediction and Goldman Sachs rating on housing stocks.

Offline Mety

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2018, 03:02:02 PM »
Good point. The post regarding Redfin CEO housing prediction and Goldman Sachs rating on housing stocks.
As I previously stated, the music is slowing down.

1. Redfin’s CEO said in February that he expects housing-market conditions to get worse before they get better
2. Goldman downgrades online real-estate stocks as housing headwinds loom
3. Spring selling season has got off to a weak start, a bad sign as it is a key period for the housing industry for both new- and existing-home sales.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-downgrades-online-real-estate-stocks-as-housing-headwinds-loom-2018-06-18

https://www.investors.com/news/homebuilder-stocks-winner-analyst-warns-housing-slowdown/

Talkin' 'bout this?

Offline eyephone

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2018, 03:13:59 PM »
Si

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Offline lnc

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2018, 04:10:59 PM »
There are always more home listed during the summer and less home listed during the winter.  It’s just a seasonal thing with the housing.  There are also higher sales volume during the summer to absorb these elevated listings, so it balanced out. 

I would start to worry only if the listings increase but the sales decreased.  Has Irvine reached the 6 month of housing inventory yet?

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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2018, 04:58:58 PM »
I follow a RSM/MV Realtor on IG. In her territory there are about 161 present listings for sale. She posted a screen shot of the market trends as of this AM.

Active Under Contract 12
Pending 8
Hold 5

vs

Price Changes 29
Back On Market 4
Expired 1
Withdrawn 2

Everyone can do the math. It's July and price changes/back on market dominate the market relative to under contract/pending. This is the trend in this specific market, and every market is different. Parallels to what's going on in Irvine are more of a stretch IMHO.  If you pull up just "Irvine" on Redfin, exclude New Construction, there are about 375 homes for sale. Now hit the "price reduced" button and only 9 come up. 9 out of 375 is not the market reversal some might be waiting for. There are however 75 homes on the market greater than 90 days. There might be something there....

My .02c

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2018, 05:04:48 PM »
The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.
Martin Mania, CPA
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mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2018, 05:48:31 PM »
I follow a RSM/MV Realtor on IG. In her territory there are about 161 present listings for sale. She posted a screen shot of the market trends as of this AM.

Active Under Contract 12
Pending 8
Hold 5

vs

Price Changes 29
Back On Market 4
Expired 1
Withdrawn 2

Everyone can do the math. It's July and price changes/back on market dominate the market relative to under contract/pending. This is the trend in this specific market, and every market is different. Parallels to what's going on in Irvine are more of a stretch IMHO.  If you pull up just "Irvine" on Redfin, exclude New Construction, there are about 375 homes for sale. Now hit the "price reduced" button and only 9 come up. 9 out of 375 is not the market reversal some might be waiting for. There are however 75 homes on the market greater than 90 days. There might be something there....

My .02c


I'm seeing more and more "highly optimistic" newer listing in Irvine, here's a few as an example just in Stonegate...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/55-Cummings-92620/home/58556391

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/89-Nassau-92620/home/40101603

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Sherwood-92620/home/146211761

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/80-Melville-92620/home/58556352
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

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Offline Mety

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #10 on: July 18, 2018, 08:30:26 PM »
The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.

So you don't notice anything different or slow? I know you list your homes with right price all the time so you personally might not be having any issues selling them, but what about other listings?
Would you say the price will rise even more from here? I'm talking about short term like a year or two. We all know the home will appreciate if you sit on it for 10+ years, but I'm curious what experts are thinking or feeling how this market is currently moving. We are not God so our prediction could be wrong. Just asking for opinions and advises.

Offline fortune11

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2018, 09:08:21 PM »
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #12 on: July 18, 2018, 10:07:54 PM »
The number of active listings in Irvine as of Wednesday at 5pm is 694 properties and that includes 81 new homes (so only 613 true resale properties).  In the past month, there have been 252 closed sales in Irvine.  That translates to 2.75 months of inventory which is still a seller's market.  Of course there's more inventory now then there was a few months ago since we are in the middle of selling season.  The number of homes listed on the market will peak in July/Aug and will be begin to drop after Labor Day.

So you don't notice anything different or slow? I know you list your homes with right price all the time so you personally might not be having any issues selling them, but what about other listings?
Would you say the price will rise even more from here? I'm talking about short term like a year or two. We all know the home will appreciate if you sit on it for 10+ years, but I'm curious what experts are thinking or feeling how this market is currently moving. We are not God so our prediction could be wrong. Just asking for opinions and advises.

Here's what I'm seeing as I'm both a listing agent and buyer agent in Irvine.....properties priced right move fast, properties with unique features (highly upgraded, larger lots, view lots, etc) move fast, properties under $1m around comps move fast with multiple offers, properties way over comps sit, properties in bad locations sit, and properties that don't show well and aren't priced at or below comps sit.  I am seeing an increasing number of listings with prices that are way too high to even appraise and all those properties will do is just sit on the market until the sellers comes to their senses or they will be delisted. 

I thought prices this year would have been flat since rates have ticked up a bit, but I was wrong about that predication.  Prices are up about 4-8% YTD in Irvine.  Where do I think prices head in the next year or two?  Well, barring any economic downturn I think prices will continue to slowly grind higher.  As I mentioned before, keep an eye out on not just the total inventory level (as that is seasonal) but keep an eye out on the months of inventory of homes on the market.  Anything below 4 months of inventory is a seller's market, 4-6 months of inventory is a neutral market, and 6+ months of inventory is a buyer's market.  For us to get to even a neutral market, we would need about 1,000 active listings on the market today (for a buyer's market we would need about 1,500 active listings). 
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline Kings

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2018, 07:27:06 AM »
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

what does this have to do with irvine real estate? can you please explain? i'm feeling a little stupid  :)

Offline fortune11

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Re: More Homes Being Listed - Irvine
« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2018, 09:03:52 AM »
Stupid reminds me

Have I got a great stoop-id article for you — enjoy w your MAGA koolaid

We are a deeply stupid country
by Dana Milbank
My fellow Americans, we are a deeply stupid nation.

I know this must be the case because President Trump has repeatedly informed us that we are a “stupid country” — he offered this opinion on at least nine occasions since he launched his campaign for the presidency — and he should know. As he reminded us after his NATO meeting last week, he is a “very stable genius.”

It is furthermore the president’s highly intelligent opinion we have been led by “stupid people” and “our laws are so corrupt and stupid.” We have been stupid about trade. We have been stupid in dealing with Iraq, Iran, China, Mexico, Canada, Europe and Muslims. We have the “dumbest” immigration laws. Among the many stupid things Trump has identified: White House staffers, the FBI, the National Football League, Democrats, the filibuster and journalists.

“We’re so stupid!” Trump said to a group of donors recently. They laughed.

“You feel like sort of stupid, don’t you?” Trump asked a rally of supporters recently. “Don’t you feel stupid?”

Stoo-pid! Stoo-pid!

But we are at our most imbecilic when dealing with Russia. “Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity,” he tweeted before meeting Monday in Helsinki with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs retweeted Trump’s assessment of his own country’s stupidity, tacking on the words “We agree.”

In his news conference a few hours later with Putin, Trump again raised the flag of American feeblemindedness. “The United States has been foolish,” he said.

How foolish are we?

We brainlessly criticized Russia when it invaded Georgia and Ukraine. We idiotically protested when Russia poisoned people in Britain. Like dunces, we punished Russians for killing human rights activists. Morons that we are, we complained when Russia shot down a passenger jet. And then, revealing ourselves to be truly daft and inane, we blamed Russia for interfering in our election.

Standing at Putin’s side Monday, Trump let the world know just how doltish the people are who made this judgment, including the cretins at the CIA and the nitwits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. “I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump announced. “I don’t see any reason why it would be” Russia.

Trump, an aficionado of intelligence, likely sides with Putin because Putin is “very smart” in Trump’s estimation (though not a “smart cookie” like Kim Jong Un), while he regards American intelligence as unintelligent. Trump long ago dismissed the CIA as the numskulls “who said Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction.”

And the CIA’s ignorance is as nothing compared with the ignoramus Robert S. Mueller III and his special counsel investigation (“we have this stupidity going on — pure stupidity,” Trump said in Britain), which on Friday indicted 12 Russians in the hack of the Democratic National Committee. The dunces of the DNC “should be ashamed of themselves” for being hacked, Trump said.

Trump sometimes has trouble convincing people of the truth of his position. This is because he is surrounded by idiots.

NATO allies fumed about Trump’s threats to abandon the alliance and go his “own way,” and his later claim that the European Union is America’s “foe.” Fools! If they were smarter, they would realize NATO “is much stronger” for Trump’s efforts.

Many looking at the video of Trump saying Germany is “totally controlled by Russia” thought White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly was uncomfortable. Imbeciles! Kelly was upset because he “was expecting a full breakfast and there were only pastries and cheese.”

[It was the cheese that let John Kelly down]

The British thought Trump had savaged Prime Minister Theresa May when, in a recorded interview, he said she “wrecked Brexit” and “didn’t listen” to his advice. Rubes! “I didn’t criticize the prime minister,” Trump said.

It appeared, to the dim, there were tens, if not hundreds of thousands, in the streets of Britain, even mocking him with a blimp showing an angry, orange Trump baby. But Trump’s genius could discern that “they like me here.”

Likewise, many a low-IQ individual cringed at Trump’s performance in Helsinki: deferential to the Russian dictator, believing Putin over the U.S. government and boasting (with an incorrect figure) about his electoral college victory. But they are stupid if they can’t see Russia did not help Trump win. “We ran a brilliant campaign, and that’s why I’m president,” Trump said.

If Trump is right — and he is so smart that he must be — then this could mean Americans wanted exactly what they are getting right now: a president who burns alliances, insults allies, sides with Putin over the American government, ignores Russia’s abuses and bashes the free press across Europe.

If so, if we Americans really did want this, Trump has proved his point about our intelligence.

As a wise man once said: Stupid is as stupid does.

what does this have to do with irvine real estate? can you please explain? i'm feeling a little stupid  :)

hey , you got me there -- wrong thread !   not going to blame my phone : )

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