Where are we headed?Irvine home prices?

OCLuvr said:
Even though, one of the hottest market is seeing a soft landing?

It's not.

Interesting from the article:
In its quarterly report on the Washington housing market for the first three months of 2018, the center put statewide inventory at a little more than five weeks, which it called a ?slight imbalance.? The report said around 113,000 units sold in the first quarter, a 5.1 percent increase from the same period a year ago.

But Young cautioned that the market can change quickly.

?If demand were to disappear tomorrow, there?s a lot of construction going on out there,? he said. ?I?m not sure housing prices would crash or anything, but it?s one of those things that you always have to be mindful of.?

Honest question: How much land is available for development within a 20-30 minute commute from Amazon and Microsoft compared to 20-30mins from JWA and the Spectrum? One reason Irvine prices are expected to remain stable is that we're running out of land for new construction.
 
Where are we headed?
I think "Sell now or get priced out forever" is gone also.
Your chance of getting overpriced appreciation is most likely gone.
If you price your home right, it will sell fine, but don't expect to get that crazy appreciation anymore.

Are we going to experience crash or some kinda price fall?
No one knows, but according to many people who "live" in Irvine, they are so sure the price should not fall.



 
Even if home prices dip 10% at some point, selling my home and then buying the dip won't help since transaction+moving costs are around 10%

Prices WILL dip during the next recession. Particularly the gaps will widen between highly desirable properties and less desirable. If you nervous about real estate when buying, try to buy a desirable home:

- Location: Irvine is better than Baker Ranch, RSM, etc.
- Noise: Away from major roads / highways / train tracks, etc.
- Driveway
- Large lot
- Views
- Updated home, desirable floor plan
- More bedrooms (opt for Bedroom instead of Den, Bedroom instead of Loft)
- Supply/Demand: Resale will be easier for floorplans / communities with high demand and limited supply in the area

 
Perhaps, I am being too optimistic, i?ve poured over countless of sources of data, reading different analysis and taking cues from various so call experts and my conclusion for Irvine housing direction at best will be flat line during the next down turn. The reasons is those buyers that bought into Irvine the last 6 years are almost all well financed buyers in Irvine, coupled that with the lowest rate that locked them in for the long run makes it very highly unlikely that they willing to give up homeownership or abandon their holding in Irvine real estate. At best those that currently owned a home is also looking for bargains and the blood willl never come to fruition as it will get sucked right up with any sign of a reasonable deal. Rental market will continue to be strong in the flat line market as potential buyers will continue to wait and see approach.
 
eyephone said:
Irvine is not immune to RE cycle.

It's not, but it'll outperform the other surrounding cities just like it did in the previous downturn (same as detached properties will outperform attached properties).
 
Compressed-Village said:
Perhaps, I am being too optimistic, i?ve poured over countless of sources of data, reading different analysis and taking cues from various so call experts and my conclusion for Irvine housing direction at best will be flat line during the next down turn. The reasons is those buyers that bought into Irvine the last 6 years are almost all well financed buyers in Irvine, coupled that with the lowest rate that locked them in for the long run makes it very highly unlikely that they willing to give up homeownership or abandon their holding in Irvine real estate. At best those that currently owned a home is also looking for bargains and the blood willl never come to fruition as it will get sucked right up with any sign of a reasonable deal. Rental market will continue to be strong in the flat line market as potential buyers will continue to wait and see approach.

Yes, I agree.  Unless *salaries* fall, why are people going to suddenly dump their houses around here?
 
even if salaries fall. rates that have been locked in are so low by historical standards. and why would investors sell there properties, would they look to buy more?
 
You guys especially who live in Irvine or nearby are so sure Irvine will outperform all the other cities around.
It could be true. Historical records have datas to prove.
But when something BIG happens, it happens as "the likes of which the world has never seen."

Of course, I hope that's not going to happen either...
 
Mety said:
You guys especially who live in Irvine or nearby are so sure Irvine will outperform all the other cities around.
It could be true. Historical records have datas to prove.
But when something BIG happens, it happens as "the likes of which the world has never seen."

Of course, I hope that's not going to happen either...

If something "the likes of which the world has never seen." does happen then the last thing anyone should be concerned about what their home might be worth. The market will do what it wants to do regardless what any of us want it to do.
 
I don?t think Chinese FCB will save irvine during the next downturn. From what I?m told from an agent who deals with these buyers, they are having a really tough time getting their money out of China.
 
Lallo said:
I don?t think Chinese FCB will save irvine during the next downturn. From what I?m told from an agent who deals with these buyers, they are having a really tough time getting their money out of China.

Exactly!
 
Lallo said:
I don?t think Chinese FCB will save irvine during the next downturn. From what I?m told from an agent who deals with these buyers, they are having a really tough time getting their money out of China.

didn't real estate agents say the same thing in 2015 - early 2016  when yuan was depreciating as well  ?  how have we done since .  not saying you will get the same % appreciation now (as global equities were lower back then) -- but be very skeptical of such anecdotal quotes.  agents themselves miss the forest for the trees many a times.

our friendly neighborhood  TI agents are an exception : )
 
Also remember that the chinese are not the only buyers. there are buyers from other countries and other states in the US. Also if I was a chinese national and owned a house in Irvine and then started having trouble getting money or as quickly as before the last thing I would do is sell the Irvine asset I already had.
 
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