Bull run in housing over???

meccos12 said:
Steve Thomas is the authority on housing, especially in OC.  Many realtors subscribe to his monthly reports.  Im sure all of you realtors on this blog know who he is.
https://www.facebook.com/SocalSteven/posts/10214940686062049

Yep, I am seeing some cracks especially from May this year.
I think it's still very seller's market and will continue to be for awhile until later this year, but I am sensing some turn around. It might take couple years to turn into a complete buyer's market though.
 
Burn That Belly said:
But zillow disagrees. Zillow thinks it's going to be rosy all the way to April '19 forecasting a 5.7% ROI.

DH2vKEl.jpg

hsmxdtI.jpg

If you were listening to Zillow, you would have been mostly wrong for the past 7 years. 

Party is over.  If you are buying houses today for appreciation you will get slaughtered.  This is a note to all you speculators out there. 
 
Burn That Belly said:
meccos12 said:
Burn That Belly said:
If you were listening to Zillow, you would have been mostly wrong for the past 7 years. 

Party is over.  If you are buying houses today for appreciation you will get slaughtered.  This is a note to all you speculators out there.
I didn?t say I agree or disagree with Zillow. I was showing what Zillow predicted. I think many first-time sideliners use Zillow to make their purchasing decision. Renters alike too.

Neither Zillow nor Steve Thomas nor any other person can fully know what's ahead of us in term of RE market. We are not God. But we can only assume with datas and what's happening around.

I assume there will be even higher prices peaking out this year and many will still buy.
However, with some trend of ridiculous listing prices, reducing prices, and more inventories coming up while there is less demand, the buyers' market might be coming in couple years.

Although, even if you buy with the ridiculous listing price now, that home might eventually go into even more ridiculous (higher) price in 10 years or so.
 
Steve Thomas has also been wrong, just like Larry, just like Panda, just like me, just like anyone on this forum... no one can 100% predict the future.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Steve Thomas has also been wrong, just like Larry, just like Panda, just like me, just like anyone on this forum... no one can 100% predict the future.

Agree... but his numbers are pretty convincing.  At the very least, it should make those buying homes for the idea of appreciation on pause. 
 
meccos12 said:
Party is over.  If you are buying houses today for appreciation you will get slaughtered.  This is a note to all you speculators out there. 

Slaughtered?  They might not get any appreciation in short term but unless rents fall dramatically, the appreciation will be delayed right?  Even in the great recession, rents in OC fell about 10% and better areas barely noticed a drop.  I think speculators rate of return will change but unless their is a catalyst to sell at a loss, I don't see them getting slaughtered.
 
I'll call falling prices for anything over 1.5 and a top for things around 1, with appreciation still happening for anything under 600. 

Look at the incomes to figure out why.  Does Steve Thomas also think rents are going to fall a lot, because as others have pointed out, we're fairly close to rental parity for low end condos still. 
 
the thing we miss is -- falling prices mean jack if the home you want to buy is not available

we are not buying a home price index fund (like SPY for S&P500) which may fall 5-6 - or whatever % , we are buying a single home, an illiquid asset

people who sat out the market applying the market crash logic in late 2015/early 2016 missed out on some great opportunities on increased availability of choice homes
 
fortune11 said:
the thing we miss is -- falling prices mean jack if the home you want to buy is not available

This is what I said on the other thread where the OP wanted advice on what they should do in regards to moving up.

It's much harder to time buy opportunities on a home you want to live in... there is little emotion related to stocks/bitcoin/tulips.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
fortune11 said:
the thing we miss is -- falling prices mean jack if the home you want to buy is not available

This is what I said on the other thread where the OP wanted advice on what they should do in regards to moving up.

It's much harder to time buy opportunities on a home you want to live in... there is little emotion related to stocks/bitcoin/tulips.

Agree. 

Short term investors should just take a step back here and let FCBs with 10+y horizons continue lapping them up  ...

But if you want to live in the home longer term, focus on the area you want to live in and seize the opportunity when it arises

Even if we see a dip, there is tons of private equity money on sidelines competing with you to buy -- so expect it to be shallow ... (lack of) supply is the big difference this time around as others have said too.  I know hard to appreciate that since we are drowning in new construction in Irvine .
 
fortune11 said:
irvinehomeowner said:
fortune11 said:
the thing we miss is -- falling prices mean jack if the home you want to buy is not available

This is what I said on the other thread where the OP wanted advice on what they should do in regards to moving up.

It's much harder to time buy opportunities on a home you want to live in... there is little emotion related to stocks/bitcoin/tulips.

Agree. 

Short term investors should just take a step back here and let FCBs with 10+y horizons continue lapping them up  ...

But if you want to live in the home longer term, focus on the area you want to live in and seize the opportunity when it arises

Even if we see a dip, there is tons of private equity money on sidelines competing with you to buy -- so expect it to be shallow ... (lack of) supply is the big difference this time around as others have said too.  I know hard to appreciate that since we are drowning in new construction in Irvine .

Yes, if the prices fall, then it would be harder to get a home you really want.
However, there are many new home constructions in Irvine and even other cities you can then buy.
I remember new homes in WB at certain point had to lower the prices each phase.



 
Back
Top