Author Topic: The Bond Bubble  (Read 10563 times)

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Offline daedalus

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2019, 09:03:42 PM »
I had a similar experience as before buying a(nother) car from CarMax today.

Told my CU what I wanted to do, and the agent emails me back with a preapproval for $50k, again without running my credit.  Rate quoted @ 3.65% for a used car, though I'm not sure that included the direct payment withdrawal discount.

So I'm out at a CarMax in BFE, and unlike my prior experience, they refused to hold the car for me, even though I was willing to sign a purchase contract.  I've been looking for months to find this car, and I didn't want it to get away, plus it's a long drive back from BFE, so I finance the whole thing at CarMax.  After running my credit (bummer!) they gave me a 2.95% rate.  I intend to just pay it off in 2 days with a check from my CU, so I fax my CU the purchase agreement, and my CU comes back with 2.99%, which is their absolute floor per the agent, and still without running my credit.  Close enough.  I drove home in my forever vehicle, and I'll pick up a check from my CU tomorrow and pay off the CarMax loan on Saturday.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #31 on: March 23, 2022, 10:09:17 AM »
Now back to our regularly scheduled bond implosion.

This Is Now The Worst Drawdown on Record for Global Fixed Income

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a benchmark for government and corporate debt total returns, has fallen 11% from a high in January 2021. That’s the biggest decline from a peak in data stretching back to 1990, surpassing a 10.8% drawdown during the financial crisis in 2008. It equates to a drop in the index market value of about $2.6 trillion, worse than about $2 trillion in 2008.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/global-bond-losses-deepen-to-11-from-2021-high-most-on-record

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: The Bond Bubble
« Reply #32 on: May 04, 2022, 12:59:19 PM »
For 45 years, from 1952-1997, the ratio of household net worth to GDP was in a tight range between 320-400%.  Starting with the dotcom bubble, and continuing with the subprime bubble, and now the current collection of bubbles, this ratio has continued making new highs.  Notice the enormous jump in household net worth that occurred in 2020. 

We were already in a pretty solid "everything bubble" from 2014-19 thanks to QE infinity, but the unprecedented money printing that began in 2020 sent household net worth into the stratosphere.

For household net worth to get back in line with historical averages, all investable assets (stocks, real estate, bitcoin, etc) would need to fall 35% simultaneously.



 

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