Author Topic: LOL GOP  (Read 5638 times)

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Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #60 on: January 17, 2018, 04:34:02 PM »
Pew (a polling company) admits they blew it.

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.

How could the polls have been so wrong about the state of the election?

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

I'm tired of this conversation.  You believe what you want.  If you think that polls are bunk fine...ignore them.  That's a you issue.  You do not believe in climate change or racism either.  That's a you issue.

Offline morekaos

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #61 on: January 17, 2018, 04:47:14 PM »
I agree, that’s why I’ve been trying to get the thread back to winning!!

Offline fortune11

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #62 on: January 17, 2018, 05:28:53 PM »
Political polls are not used to predict an outcome, they are used to sway public opinion.

What ?? I really want to understand where you are coming from .  Care to elaborate or is this just a Fox News regurgitation. 

Offline fortune11

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #63 on: January 17, 2018, 06:50:55 PM »

That liberal cnn fake news loving  republican Scott walker is at it again ... no more fox and friends for him


“WAKE UP CALL: Can’t presume that voters know we are getting positive things done in Wisconsin. Help us share the good news,” the governor wrote in a subsequent post, adding in two others that the state GOP also can’t presume voters are aware “that more people are working than ever before” and that “we invested more actual dollars into schools than ever before.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/01/17/scott-walker-wisconsin-patty-schachtner-win-343237

Offline Kings

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #64 on: January 18, 2018, 07:14:23 AM »
Political polls are not used to predict an outcome, they are used to sway public opinion.

No...political polls are mathematical models based upon particular methodology.  Spin is used to sway public opinion. 

For example, Trump repeatedly touts the polls that has him at 40+% approval rating even though those same polls have him with 50+% disapproval and as a collective, polls have Trump's approval rating at mid 30s. 

Again, as a whole, the polls for the 2016 election were quite good.

Again...polls and predictive models (political or otherwise) are not some sort of alchemy.  Weather models can also be wrong they're pretty accurate so if you think that you don't need to carry an umbrella because the weather forecast was wrong one time...that's a you issue.

Key world is the "use" of the political polls.  Not what they are.  Most of the population takes these polls at face value because ABC News or CNN publishes them.  What's actually in the poll? +10D,+3R, etc.  That has a big impact.  You sounds knowledgeable enough about how the polls work and I assume you understand what I'm talking about here, so these polls aren't necessarily "used" to influence you.  They are used to influence the general population, though.  Otherwise why even post them? 

Polls dominated the election news cycle.  Every week a new poll.  And averages weren't necessarily presented all the time.  Did the media shoot themselves in the foot by publishing polls that show Hillary double digits ahead of Trump, suppressing democratic voters who thought it was in the bag?  Perhaps.  Did the same polls suppress republican voters by telling them it wasn't possible for Trump to win?  Perhaps.  Most of the general population sees one or two polls and is half in and half out of the entire news cycle.  They form their opinion based on what information they have at the time, and if a week before the election they catch their news at a time that says, "Hillary Clinton has a 99% chance of winning," they probably won't waste their time to vote.

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Offline Kings

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #65 on: January 18, 2018, 07:42:19 AM »
Political polls are not used to predict an outcome, they are used to sway public opinion.

What ?? I really want to understand where you are coming from .  Care to elaborate or is this just a Fox News regurgitation.

The media's "job" is to control what people think.  Whether you get your news from Fox News, MSNBC, Buzzfeed, or CBS.  Most claim to be neutral (even though it's impossible to be 100% neutral).  People inherently want to have their bias confirmed.  That's why Fox News is #1 in viewers.  For the most part, they are the only conservative view point.  Everyone else is liberal or slightly leaning liberal.  I would argue that Fox News presents more polls by Rasmussen than the other networks.  That's using +R polling to influence viewers.  Referencing back to my last post - depending on when you see these news reports or polls (which may or may not have certain leanings) also influences your choice to vote and who to vote for.  If you're independent and on the fence, I would argue that some people vote to just be on the "winning team" and couldn't care less about who becomes President.

So circling back, why even publish the polls or even talk about them if they aren't going to be used to influence people?

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Offline fortune11

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #66 on: January 18, 2018, 07:39:50 PM »
MEdia's job is to make money .  they dont care about ideology.  Jeff Zucker is a well known liberal who was a big Trump booster all throughout his career at NBC and then CNN. 

Polling has generally been accurate within margin of error as the recent special elections have shown. 

and dont forget

1.  it was the liberal New York times who broke the email server story that became Hillarys downfall
2. it was the liberal nyt again who broke the Harvey Weinstein story (a big dem supporter) and triggered the  launch of  the #metoo movement
3. Clinton foundation donations - again, NYT

what do we get from right wing media?  -- fake stories like the "comet pizza sex ring" which conservatives believe blindly thanks to their reliance on only Fox News and the rightwing online cesspool o and we get the tragedy of a mentally unstable nut job actually attacking a pizza parlor based on that misinformation.

Seriously --- read the Sunday new York times .  and then watch Fox News .  if you haven't so far, just do it once for your own sake

it is like day and night .  the depth of reporting , the analysis is actually unmatched in this day and age.  even if i completely ignore the biased opinion pieces (which I agree are biased) --- the travel section, the style section, sports,  food and wellness - it is unparalleled.

sometimes they try to over correct (what they perceive to be the common perception of bias from people such as yourselves ) and we get disasters like overkill on email coverage while going soft footed on trump .  and we all know what this led to in 2016.

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Offline eyephone

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #67 on: January 18, 2018, 08:36:45 PM »
MEdia's job is to make money .  they dont care about ideology.  Jeff Zucker is a well known liberal who was a big Trump booster all throughout his career at NBC and then CNN. 

Polling has generally been accurate within margin of error as the recent special elections have shown. 

and dont forget

1.  it was the liberal New York times who broke the email server story that became Hillarys downfall
2. it was the liberal nyt again who broke the Harvey Weinstein story (a big dem supporter) and triggered the  launch of  the #metoo movement
3. Clinton foundation donations - again, NYT

what do we get from right wing media?  -- fake stories like the "comet pizza sex ring" which conservatives believe blindly thanks to their reliance on only Fox News and the rightwing online cesspool o and we get the tragedy of a mentally unstable nut job actually attacking a pizza parlor based on that misinformation.

Seriously --- read the Sunday new York times .  and then watch Fox News .  if you haven't so far, just do it once for your own sake

it is like day and night .  the depth of reporting , the analysis is actually unmatched in this day and age.  even if i completely ignore the biased opinion pieces (which I agree are biased) --- the travel section, the style section, sports,  food and wellness - it is unparalleled.

sometimes they try to over correct (what they perceive to be the common perception of bias from people such as yourselves ) and we get disasters like overkill on email coverage while going soft footed on trump .  and we all know what this led to in 2016.



Yeah we are understanding what happened.
It’s known Russia operatives placed ads on Facebook.
Twitter may notify users exposed to Russian propaganda during 2016 election.

https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1F62D0


Facebook to expand inquiry into Russian influence of Brexit

Can somebody tell them to mind there own business? (Is that their calling card?)
« Last Edit: January 18, 2018, 09:00:53 PM by eyephone »

Offline fortune11

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #68 on: January 18, 2018, 09:23:51 PM »

Facebook to expand inquiry into Russian influence of Brexit

Can somebody tell them to mind there own business? (Is that their calling card?)

Here is another one to think about .. lot of speculation , but some valid points in there too.

Foreign spies could be manipulating Trump through Fox News

https://www.vox.com/world/2018/1/17/16878406/donald-trump-fox-news-russia-cia-foreign-spies


Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #69 on: January 19, 2018, 08:59:33 AM »
Did we do this one already?

Ten-dimensional chess.

Quote
The FBI is investigating whether a top Russian banker with ties to the Kremlin illegally funneled money to the National Rifle Association to help Donald Trump win the presidency, two sources familiar with the matter have told McClatchy.

FBI counterintelligence investigators have focused on the activities of Alexander Torshin, the deputy governor of Russia’s central bank who is known for his close relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the NRA, the sources said.

It is illegal to use foreign money to influence federal elections.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article195231139.html

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #70 on: January 19, 2018, 09:20:31 AM »

what do we get from right wing media?  -- fake stories like the "comet pizza sex ring" which conservatives believe blindly thanks to their reliance on only Fox News and the rightwing online cesspool o and we get the tragedy of a mentally unstable nut job actually attacking a pizza parlor based on that misinformation.


We get this:

Quote
"But even more troubling than that, recently I've been made aware of what I believe to be credible evidence, credible information regarding potential terrorist infiltration through the southern border regarding this incident."

When pressed for more information, the congressman explained the terrorist group had previously threatened to attack Las Vegas, and after Paddock killed 58 concertgoers ISIS took responsibility for the attack - a boast most experts found unconvincing.

Catherine Lombardo, an attorney representing victims of the attack on the panel, quickly shot down the suggestion.

"We've seen no evidence of a terrorist attack," she said. "I would ask, with all due respect Congressman, unless you have specific evidence to back that up, it seems a bit irresponsible to make that allegation. If you do have any evidence of that, I'm asking you right now."

"I'm just telling you, I have received what I feel to be . . . credible evidence of a possible terrorist nexus," Perry answered. "We're going to have to wait until that situation develops."

Perry's office did not return a phone call late Thursday for elaboration on his claims about a terrorist link.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-scott-perry-terrorism-las-vegas-20180119-story.html

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Offline fortune11

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #71 on: January 19, 2018, 04:03:49 PM »
Did we do this one already?

Ten-dimensional chess.

Quote
The FBI is investigating whether a top Russian banker with ties to the Kremlin illegally funneled money to the National Rifle Association to help Donald Trump win the presidency, two sources familiar with the matter have told McClatchy.

FBI counterintelligence investigators have focused on the activities of Alexander Torshin, the deputy governor of Russia’s central bank who is known for his close relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the NRA, the sources said.

It is illegal to use foreign money to influence federal elections.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article195231139.html

I hope if nothing else , the Russia investigation does some damage to NRA , among the most vile organizations in this country . It encapsulates in a nutshell what excesses a runaway gun culture has wrought upon this country. 

But knowing how radicalized their members are , it will probably be used for more fundraising ! 
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 04:20:22 PM by fortune11 »

Offline spootieho

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #72 on: January 22, 2018, 08:36:55 AM »
How exactly is the NRA vile?  They are one of the few that are defending our rights.  Vile because you disagree with the constitution?

Offline morekaos

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #73 on: January 22, 2018, 08:46:28 AM »
I’m a member...I know, you’re surprised!

Offline fortune11

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Re: LOL GOP
« Reply #74 on: January 22, 2018, 09:14:15 AM »
How exactly is the NRA vile?  They are one of the few that are defending our rights.  Vile because you disagree with the constitution?

yes , defending our country by colluding w the Russians.

defending the rights of gun nuts to own mechanized mass murdering weapons 

who do you guys need these weapons for -- a militia to defend against the "tyrannical state "  -- you mean the police  ? the military ?

but hey , aren't you the same people screaming blue lives matter and chest thumping about the bald eagle and the military

turning logic on its head ...



 

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