Investment for 2018 and Beyond

Just curious where people think the money is going in 2018 and beyond.

Guns, hookers and drugs.

Aka bitcoin.

I've been long Defense & Aerospace all year and sticking with that.

YTD returns before dividends:

XAR - 29.77% vs. SPY - 18.62%

Stocks in general should continue to do well.  Just avoid assets that are rate sensitive, like bonds and commodities.

If I buy precious metals and healthcare REIT's does that make my money dumb?
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VIX options

One rule of thumb which worked well for me in recent decade has been just follow what the world's biggest asset manipulators (i.e. central banks) are pushing you to. And right now they are all stepping away bit by bit.  So I am not generally bulled up on stocks.

Obama, Trump, Congress - these actors pale in comparison to the central banks' when it comes to deciding global liquidity and money flows.

I want to wait and see what other areas does an eventual reversal caused by some mistake (crypto currency crash?)  knock-on affects before making any large investment moves. 

cash used to pay zero return, now it is something .  not a bad place to be while you wait it out a bit from this point on ...

Other than that, the VIX option advice mentioned by USCTrojan is a very smart one , IMO

fortune11 said:

I want to wait and see what other areas does an eventual reversal caused by some mistake (crypto currency crash?)  knock-on affects before making any large investment

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I think now there is too much risk with crypto currency.

I think you are missing out if you are in a large cash position.

I meant not a bad idea to take some profits if you are already invested.  You don't have to be all in cash but increasing it  would be somewhat prudent. 

I am generally against tying investment decisions to the start and end of calendar years as that is what the Wall Street people do. Themes have a tendency to emerge during the year and you need to be able to be flexible enough to take advantage of them.  In December 2015 the world was all gloom and doom.  Some very smart analyst were recommending the usual "tread with caution" b/s based on "death from China or commodities " . And how quickly they all changed their tune by spring and early summer when it became clear market was going up , Trump or no Trump.

eyephone said:

fortune11 said:

I want to wait and see what other areas does an eventual reversal caused by some mistake (crypto currency crash?)  knock-on affects before making any large investment

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I think now there is too much risk with crypto currency.

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there is a lot of money sloshing around the system here (600-700bn) and when and if it crashes , the large amount of liquidity being drained is sure to cause pain at a massive level when people start selling all sorts of other things to make  up for it . May not happen right now, but is certainly something that can happen at some point next year.

Mostly VTSAX. Some VBTLX. Boring, I know.

HMart said:

Mostly VTSAX. Some VBTLX. Boring, I know.

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Boglehead strategy to wealth accumulation is a pretty decent one.