Author Topic: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong  (Read 52928 times)

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #315 on: December 14, 2021, 09:01:03 AM »
And I find it nice that many schools and buildings with huge parking lots are putting up solar panels. Instead of offshore drilling, we should be focusing on offshore hydropower (I admit to not knowing the cost or impact of this technology).

I think the only realistic way out of fossil fuels is with nuclear, supplemented by wind, solar, & hydro.  Unfortunately, the green movement is also trying to eliminate nuclear, which actually increases our dependence on fossil fuels.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #316 on: December 14, 2021, 09:11:17 AM »
This is the argument I have been advocating forever...adapt. There is little we can do about changing trajectory no matter what you believe.  Really, I believe the only clean way is Hydrogen if they can ever solve the storage issues.  Electric vehicles are a mirage for now...we live in LALA land so people here think its the way, but reality is a biatch...for a plethora of reasons...

Electric Vehicles On Collision Course With Reality

* I’m pro-electricity, but I am adamantly opposed to the notion that we should “electrify everything” including transportation.

* EVs are cool. They are not new. The history of EVs is a century of failure tailgating failure. In 1911, the New York Times said that the electric car “has long been recognized as the ideal solution.” In 1990, the California Air Resources Board mandated 10% of car sales be zero-emission vehicles by 2003. Today, 31 years later, only about 6% of the cars in California have an electric plug.

* The average household income for EV buyers is about $140,000. That’s roughly two times the U.S. average. And yet, federal EV tax credits force low- and middle-income taxpayers to subsidize the Benz and Beemer crowd.

* Lower-income Americans are facing huge electric rate increases for grid upgrades to accommodate EVs even though they will probably never own one.

* This month, the California Energy Commission estimated the state will need 1.3 million new public EV chargers by 2030. The likely cost to ratepayers: about $13 billion.

* Meanwhile, blackouts are almost certain this summer and electricity prices are “absolutely exploding.” California’s electricity prices went up by 7.5 percent last year and they will likely rise another 40 percent by 2030. This, in a state with the highest poverty rate and largest Latino population in America. How is racial justice or social equity being served by such regressive policies?

* I also talked about resilience, saying “Electrifying everything is the opposite of anti-fragile. Electrifying transportation will put more of our energy eggs in one basket. It will make the grid an even-bigger target for terrorists, cyberthieves, or bad actors. It will reduce resilience and reliability in case of a prolonged grid failure due to natural disaster, equipment failure, or human error.”

I also highlighted the myriad supply-chain problems with EVs. Citing work done by the Natural History Museum in London, I said that electrifying half of the U.S. motor vehicle fleet would require in rough terms:

* 9 times the world’s current cobalt production
* 4 times global neodymium output
* 3 times global lithium production
* 2 times world copper production

I concluded by saying:

Oil’s dominance in transportation is largely due to its high energy density. That density and improvements in internal combustion engines and hybrids assure that oil will be fueling transport for decades to come.

Powerful lobby groups want Congress to spend billions on electrification schemes that will impose regressive taxes on low-income Americans, reduce our resilience, and increase reliance on China. That’s a dubious trifecta..

https://principia-scientific.com/electric-vehicles-on-collision-course-with-reality/

Offline morekaos

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #317 on: December 14, 2021, 09:19:53 AM »
oh and this on how this fad is marketed to the public...

Oh, and how deeply have EVs actually penetrated our transportation industry? This is revealing.

EVs still account for less than one percent of the 276 million registered vehicles in the U.S. Of all the EVs on U.S. roads, about 42 percent of them are in California.

By contrast, states like South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming each have less than 1,000 registered EVs. Furthermore, in 2020, fewer than 300,000 EVs were sold in the U.S.

For comparison, Ford Motor Company sold nearly 800,000 F-series pickup trucks last year.

As a result of the “green” energy fad, blackouts are already fast on the way to becoming the new normal.

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #318 on: December 14, 2021, 10:48:53 AM »
Until a cost effective way to recycle lithium is found, EV batteries are the next Nuclear Power Plant waste - no State will want to take them and you shouldn't put them in landfills.

I'd like to see the California Aqueduct have some kind of solar component. Many miles of Aqueduct could be partially shaded with solar panels. Evaporation loss could be cut, plus there's hardly a planning and permit cost given a right of way has already been established. Small steps can eventually add up to a benefit, but relying on natural gas/coal fired Tesla's is not going to get the job done.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #319 on: December 14, 2021, 02:10:29 PM »
Recycling lithium and using other elements for battery tech is coming... science will catch up to usage.

And to me, it's fine if those that have the means move to EVs until cost makes it more attainable for everyone else. It's just like smartphones, the early adopters who could afford it made it possible for everyone else to catch up... that's how it is with all advances, technology or otherwise.

Look at Tesla for example, those $100k+ Model S and Model X units paved the way for the more accessible Model 3s and Model Ys... and those will set the course for the Model 2s. Yes, fossil fuels will still be around, but that doesn't mean we don't do anything... and there are alternatives to EVs like CNG, Hydrogen etc etc.

You can be stubborn like Toyota was or embrace it like everyone else has (Toyota BTW has a good strategy now, focus on cost rather than range). It's all about finding solutions, not pointing out the hurdles.
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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #320 on: December 14, 2021, 02:55:22 PM »
Mention CNG and those damned hippies will protest day and night on your front lawn. Hydrogen's end product is great, but again it's origination source is natural gas. Electric cars are great, but getting more shaded areas ASAP would do more in the short run than bulk sales of NatGas / Coal powered Teslas. If Elon and the State would bundle a solar charger with an EV at a subsidized price adoption rates would climb. If Rivian and Ford's Lightning pickup meet consumer needs that also will take a big bite out of low MPG truck sales - a good thing.

OC's income levels and relatively new housing stock can support rooftop solar. It will be interesting to see what kind of battle will ensue with the proposed changes in Solar subsidies and fee payments. Given that the State of California thinks a $70 per month fee for Solar is a good idea, we are for all intents and purposes FUBAR.
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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #321 on: December 14, 2021, 05:00:19 PM »
Yea, that solar charge thing is the utilities cash grab.  It’s not fair to you non-solar owners that voted for the 50% green energy mandate that causes Cali to have massively higher electric costs than the rest of the country that I don’t pay for the solar energy I use, pay the same rate as you for excess I use in any month and get about 4 cents per kilowatt hour that I produce if I don’t use it,  which ironically basically goes from my house to the power line where it connects along with my neighbors house without solar and flows out to them to power their AC and is getting charged 40 cents by the utility for it.


Offline morekaos

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #322 on: December 29, 2021, 09:45:43 AM »
China could care less...we are fools to believe them...

China fires up giant coal power plant in face of calls for cuts

SHANGHAI, Dec 28 (Reuters) - China, under fire for approving new coal power stations as other countries try to curb greenhouse gases, has completed the first 1,000-megawatt unit of the Shanghaimiao plant, the biggest of its kind under construction in the country.

Its operator, the Guodian Power Shanghaimiao Corporation, a subsidiary of the central government-run China Energy Investment Corporation, said on Tuesday that the plant's technology was the world's most efficient, with the lowest rates of coal and water consumption.

Located in Ordos in the coal-rich northwestern region of Inner Mongolia, the plant will eventually have four generating units, and is designed to deliver power to the eastern coastal Shandong province via a long-distance ultra-high voltage grid.

China is responsible for more than half of global coal-fired power generation and is expected to see a 9% year-on-year increase in 2021, an International Energy Agency report published this month said.

Beijing has pledged to start reducing coal consumption, but will do so only after 2025, giving developers considerable leeway to raise capacity further in the coming four years.

https://news.trust.org/item/20211228095824-casrb


 

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