Author Topic: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong  (Read 14193 times)

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Offline inv0ke-epipen

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2018, 04:19:32 PM »
Define “consensus”.

Specifically, "Scientific Consensus"


"Scientific consensus is the collective judgment, position, and opinion of the community of scientists in a particular field of study. Consensus implies general agreement, though not necessarily unanimity"

For a more in depth study of the modern process by which the scientific community reaches consensus see: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0003122410388488

Google returns numerous other results if you are interested further.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2018, 06:53:15 AM »
“Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida estate to be submerged by rising sea levels due to climate change

Donald Trump once said climate change was a “hoax” invented by the Chinese but the phenomenon could be responsible for flooding his own Florida properties.

Environmental experts lined up to testify at a senate hearing on climate change this week, just four miles from Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, arguing that water could rise so high by the end of the century that the President’s own resorts would be damaged.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-climate-change-mar-a-lago-florida-flooded-sea-level-rise-global-warming-winter-white-a7677596.html


Offline morekaos

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2018, 07:50:51 AM »
Not a problem..He'll build a wall.

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Offline StarmanMBA

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2018, 08:07:07 AM »
When the ecohypocrites aren't screaming "The end is near, the end is near," they're flying and driving all around the world, slapping each other on the back, and  proclaiming their own intellectual prowess.  Daily they fly and drive all around the world. Daily.

Here is a partial schedule of ecohypocrites' travels:

https://conferencealerts.com/topic-listing?topic=Environment


qwerty:  Hey StarmanMBA, go fuck yourself.
(Thank you:  Burn That Belly, id_rather_be_racing, misme, eyephone, fortune11)

Classy bunch.

"...expos'd the fool and lash'd the knave." - Jonathan Swift

Offline paydawg

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #19 on: May 09, 2018, 08:49:20 AM »
I think the difference is that our freeways get used by tens of millions of people every day.  The slow-speed "bullet" train would probably have ridership in the hundreds.  I'm fine with using tolls to pay for new freeways - I use the 241 every day - but what I don't like is this idea of charging tolls for existing freeways that taxpayers have already funded.  For example, they want to create a toll lane on the 405 in north Orange County.  That's just wrong.

The argument is often made that the gas tax is too low, but it's only going to get worse with electric/hybrid vehicles becoming more popular, so why don't they just eliminate the gas tax and create a new tax on vehicle registrations.  People with more expensive cars would pay more and people with junkers would pay the least.  That would be much fairer than the gas tax which is a highly regressive tax that hits poor people the hardest.

That's another Jerry Brown contradiction.  He's supposedly a liberal that believes in taxing the rich and helping the poor, but then he jacks the gas tax up by 30 cents a gallon.  Poor people are not the ones driving electric vehicles and they have the longest commutes from the IE, so they are getting hurt the most by this.

I like the idea of taxing vehicle registrations in lieu of the gas tax or a toll on freeways.  Owning a luxury car is a....luxury.  They should be taxed accordingly.  Commuting long distances is more out of necessity.  Also, imagine the traffic on all the surface streets in cities like Irvine if the freeways were no longer "free".
Thanks in advance for the 'thanks'!!

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #20 on: May 09, 2018, 09:42:40 AM »
“Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida estate to be submerged by rising sea levels due to climate change

Donald Trump once said climate change was a “hoax” invented by the Chinese but the phenomenon could be responsible for flooding his own Florida properties.

Environmental experts lined up to testify at a senate hearing on climate change this week, just four miles from Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, arguing that water could rise so high by the end of the century that the President’s own resorts would be damaged.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-climate-change-mar-a-lago-florida-flooded-sea-level-rise-global-warming-winter-white-a7677596.html

This would be a prime example of something that is not scientific consensus.

Climate models are not science any more than a pipeline hedging model in the mortgage industry is science.  You can figure out which variables are the most predictive, and overlay a set of assumptions on those variables, but reality has a way of not cooperating with our human assumptions.

So to summarize, science is based on observable, repeatable results that are aggregated into datasets that can be studied.  The models built on top of those datasets are not science, but represent our best guesses about a whole host of variables, making them no more reliable than economic models or weather prediction models. 

They make for great discussion points and a way to test our theories, but they shouldn't be lumped into the same category as "scientific facts".

Offline eyephone

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #21 on: May 09, 2018, 09:58:39 AM »
“Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida estate to be submerged by rising sea levels due to climate change

Donald Trump once said climate change was a “hoax” invented by the Chinese but the phenomenon could be responsible for flooding his own Florida properties.

Environmental experts lined up to testify at a senate hearing on climate change this week, just four miles from Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, arguing that water could rise so high by the end of the century that the President’s own resorts would be damaged.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-climate-change-mar-a-lago-florida-flooded-sea-level-rise-global-warming-winter-white-a7677596.html

This would be a prime example of something that is not scientific consensus.

Climate models are not science any more than a pipeline hedging model in the mortgage industry is science.  You can figure out which variables are the most predictive, and overlay a set of assumptions on those variables, but reality has a way of not cooperating with our human assumptions.

So to summarize, science is based on observable, repeatable results that are aggregated into datasets that can be studied.  The models built on top of those datasets are not science, but represent our best guesses about a whole host of variables, making them no more reliable than economic models or weather prediction models. 

They make for great discussion points and a way to test our theories, but they shouldn't be lumped into the same category as "scientific facts".

I don’t know (gray area)

Offline inv0ke-epipen

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #22 on: May 09, 2018, 09:59:30 AM »
“Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida estate to be submerged by rising sea levels due to climate change

Donald Trump once said climate change was a “hoax” invented by the Chinese but the phenomenon could be responsible for flooding his own Florida properties.

Environmental experts lined up to testify at a senate hearing on climate change this week, just four miles from Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, arguing that water could rise so high by the end of the century that the President’s own resorts would be damaged.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-climate-change-mar-a-lago-florida-flooded-sea-level-rise-global-warming-winter-white-a7677596.html

This would be a prime example of something that is not scientific consensus.

Climate models are not science any more than a pipeline hedging model in the mortgage industry is science.  You can figure out which variables are the most predictive, and overlay a set of assumptions on those variables, but reality has a way of not cooperating with our human assumptions.

So to summarize, science is based on observable, repeatable results that are aggregated into datasets that can be studied.  The models built on top of those datasets are not science, but represent our best guesses about a whole host of variables, making them no more reliable than economic models or weather prediction models. 

They make for great discussion points and a way to test our theories, but they shouldn't be lumped into the same category as "scientific facts".

Sounds reasonable, but why should I believe you over many others who have spent years actually studying Climate models? Do you have a real understanding of climate models, or just enough knowledge of them to know they share some characteristics with financial models? This sounds like Dunning-Kruger affect at work.



I'm inclined to trust those with experience in their field over a separate, but potentially similar, field. I'm not sure I believe that climate models equate to financial models, or that your expertise in that area gives you authority to make that assertion.

I'm not a client scientist either, so don't believe what I say, look to the huge number of scientists and work they've done showing that the globe is warming, it's caused by CO2, and it could cause us significant trouble if we don't get in front of it.

My point is, we've gotten to where we are now by trusting scientific consensus and using its insights to better ourselves. It has been our sharpest tool, allowing us to carve out a seat of power over this world that has enriched and elevated us. Why make exceptions now? Why do you equate your limited knowledge of climate science as equal or superior to the body of work that lays the foundation of the current consensus?

EDIT: Fixed image that didn't work for dunning kruger graph

Offline eyephone

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2018, 10:04:49 AM »
How about this one?

“Trump Resort in Ireland Will Build Seawalls to Protect Against Climate Change

President Donald Trump will finally get the wall he's after. However, it won't be along the U.S.-Mexico border. An Irish council on Thursday granted approval for a wall to be built around part of Trump's golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland to protect it from water erosion, The New York Times reported.

In the first application, Trump cited "global warming and its effects," including rising sea levels and water erosion, as reasons for the wall, Politico reported, despite his statements calling global warming and climate change "a total hoax." Global warming was not listed as a reason in this application.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-12-22/trump-resort-in-ireland-will-build-seawalls-to-protect-against-climate-change%3fcontext=amp

My comment:
1. According to the article Trump mentioned global warming and its effects," including rising sea levels and water erosion, as reasons for the wall for the golf course in Ireland.
I guess he’s changed his mind?
2. Maybe he should think twice before buying or developing golf courses by the ocean.




« Last Edit: May 09, 2018, 10:11:56 AM by eyephone »

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #24 on: May 09, 2018, 10:15:49 AM »
“Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida estate to be submerged by rising sea levels due to climate change

Donald Trump once said climate change was a “hoax” invented by the Chinese but the phenomenon could be responsible for flooding his own Florida properties.

Environmental experts lined up to testify at a senate hearing on climate change this week, just four miles from Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, arguing that water could rise so high by the end of the century that the President’s own resorts would be damaged.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-climate-change-mar-a-lago-florida-flooded-sea-level-rise-global-warming-winter-white-a7677596.html

This would be a prime example of something that is not scientific consensus.

Climate models are not science any more than a pipeline hedging model in the mortgage industry is science.  You can figure out which variables are the most predictive, and overlay a set of assumptions on those variables, but reality has a way of not cooperating with our human assumptions.

So to summarize, science is based on observable, repeatable results that are aggregated into datasets that can be studied.  The models built on top of those datasets are not science, but represent our best guesses about a whole host of variables, making them no more reliable than economic models or weather prediction models. 

They make for great discussion points and a way to test our theories, but they shouldn't be lumped into the same category as "scientific facts".

Sounds reasonable, but why should I believe you over many others who have spent years actually studying Climate models? Do you have a real understanding of climate models, or just enough knowledge of them to know they share some characteristics with financial models? This sounds like Dunning-Kruger affect at work.



I'm inclined to trust those with experience in their field over a separate, but potentially similar, field. I'm not sure I believe that climate models equate to financial models, or that your expertise in that area gives you authority to make that assertion.

I'm not a client scientist either, so don't believe what I say, look to the huge number of scientists and work they've done showing that the globe is warming, it's caused by CO2, and it could cause us significant trouble if we don't get in front of it.

My point is, we've gotten to where we are now by trusting scientific consensus and using its insights to better ourselves. It has been our sharpest tool, allowing us to carve out a seat of power over this world that has enriched and elevated us. Why make exceptions now? Why do you equate your limited knowledge of climate science as equal or superior to the body of work that lays the foundation of the current consensus?

EDIT: Fixed image that didn't work for dunning kruger graph


It sounds like you agree with me that eyephone shouldn't be listened to.

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Offline eyephone

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #25 on: May 09, 2018, 10:17:11 AM »
“Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida estate to be submerged by rising sea levels due to climate change

Donald Trump once said climate change was a “hoax” invented by the Chinese but the phenomenon could be responsible for flooding his own Florida properties.

Environmental experts lined up to testify at a senate hearing on climate change this week, just four miles from Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, arguing that water could rise so high by the end of the century that the President’s own resorts would be damaged.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-climate-change-mar-a-lago-florida-flooded-sea-level-rise-global-warming-winter-white-a7677596.html

This would be a prime example of something that is not scientific consensus.

Climate models are not science any more than a pipeline hedging model in the mortgage industry is science.  You can figure out which variables are the most predictive, and overlay a set of assumptions on those variables, but reality has a way of not cooperating with our human assumptions.

So to summarize, science is based on observable, repeatable results that are aggregated into datasets that can be studied.  The models built on top of those datasets are not science, but represent our best guesses about a whole host of variables, making them no more reliable than economic models or weather prediction models. 

They make for great discussion points and a way to test our theories, but they shouldn't be lumped into the same category as "scientific facts".

Sounds reasonable, but why should I believe you over many others who have spent years actually studying Climate models? Do you have a real understanding of climate models, or just enough knowledge of them to know they share some characteristics with financial models? This sounds like Dunning-Kruger affect at work.



I'm inclined to trust those with experience in their field over a separate, but potentially similar, field. I'm not sure I believe that climate models equate to financial models, or that your expertise in that area gives you authority to make that assertion.

I'm not a client scientist either, so don't believe what I say, look to the huge number of scientists and work they've done showing that the globe is warming, it's caused by CO2, and it could cause us significant trouble if we don't get in front of it.

My point is, we've gotten to where we are now by trusting scientific consensus and using its insights to better ourselves. It has been our sharpest tool, allowing us to carve out a seat of power over this world that has enriched and elevated us. Why make exceptions now? Why do you equate your limited knowledge of climate science as equal or superior to the body of work that lays the foundation of the current consensus?

EDIT: Fixed image that didn't work for dunning kruger graph


It sounds like you agree with me that eyephone shouldn't be listened to.

Yeah don’t listen to me. TRUMP put global warming or something similar to that on his application to build the wall for his golf course in Ireland..

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #26 on: May 09, 2018, 10:18:34 AM »
How about this one?

“Trump Resort in Ireland Will Build Seawalls to Protect Against Climate Change

President Donald Trump will finally get the wall he's after. However, it won't be along the U.S.-Mexico border. An Irish council on Thursday granted approval for a wall to be built around part of Trump's golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland to protect it from water erosion, The New York Times reported.

In the first application, Trump cited "global warming and its effects," including rising sea levels and water erosion, as reasons for the wall, Politico reported, despite his statements calling global warming and climate change "a total hoax." Global warming was not listed as a reason in this application.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-12-22/trump-resort-in-ireland-will-build-seawalls-to-protect-against-climate-change%3fcontext=amp

My comment:
1. According to the article Trump mentioned global warming and its effects," including rising sea levels and water erosion, as reasons for the wall for the golf course in Ireland.
I guess he’s changed his mind?
2. Maybe he should think twice before buying or developing golf courses by the ocean.

Trump was telling the local officials what they wanted to hear, using the buzzwords he knew would maximize his chances of permit approval.

This may surprise you but water erosion is something that has existed since the beginning of time.  It's not a new phenomenon.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #27 on: May 09, 2018, 10:19:37 AM »
Yeah don’t listen to me. TRUMP put global warming or something similar to that on his application to build the wall for his golf course in Ireland..

Your beef is with inv0ke-epipen.  He's the one that wrote that dismissive missive against you.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2018, 10:20:23 AM »
How about this one?

“Trump Resort in Ireland Will Build Seawalls to Protect Against Climate Change

President Donald Trump will finally get the wall he's after. However, it won't be along the U.S.-Mexico border. An Irish council on Thursday granted approval for a wall to be built around part of Trump's golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland to protect it from water erosion, The New York Times reported.

In the first application, Trump cited "global warming and its effects," including rising sea levels and water erosion, as reasons for the wall, Politico reported, despite his statements calling global warming and climate change "a total hoax." Global warming was not listed as a reason in this application.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2017-12-22/trump-resort-in-ireland-will-build-seawalls-to-protect-against-climate-change%3fcontext=amp

My comment:
1. According to the article Trump mentioned global warming and its effects," including rising sea levels and water erosion, as reasons for the wall for the golf course in Ireland.
I guess he’s changed his mind?
2. Maybe he should think twice before buying or developing golf courses by the ocean.

Trump was telling the local officials what they wanted to hear, using the buzzwords he knew would maximize his chances of permit approval.

This may surprise you but water erosion is something that has existed since the beginning of time.  It's not a new phenomenon.

I like that one. Tell them what they want to hear. Oh yeah

#minorleaguer

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #29 on: May 09, 2018, 10:26:15 AM »
Eyephone - Have you ever been to Ireland?






 

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