Author Topic: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong  (Read 10138 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 509
  • -Received: 333
  • Posts: 1721
Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« on: September 19, 2017, 02:18:27 PM »
Now even top scientists are becoming "deniers".

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/experts-admit-global-warming-predictions-wrong/news-story/fa5d90b23d16eb08e7d0d6b14d1bbf0c

Experts admit global warming predictions wrong

Quote
The worst impacts of climate change can still be avoided, senior scientists have said after revising their previous predictions.

The world has warmed more slowly than had been forecast by computer models, which were “on the hot side” and overstated the impact of emissions, a new study has found. Its projections suggest that the world has a better chance than previously claimed of meeting the goal set by the Paris agreement on climate change to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, makes clear that rapid reductions in emissions will still be required but suggests that the world has more time to make the changes.

Michael Grubb, professor of international energy and climate change at University College London and one of the study’s authors, admitted that his past prediction had been wrong.

He stated during the climate summit in Paris in December 2015: “All the evidence from the past 15 years leads me to conclude that actually delivering 1.5C is simply incompatible with democracy.” He told The Times yesterday: “When the facts change, I change my mind, as [John Maynard] Keynes said. It’s still likely to be very difficult to achieve these kind of changes quickly enough but we are in a better place than I thought.”

The latest study found that a group of computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had predicted a more rapid temperature increase than had taken place. Global average temperature has risen by about 0.9C since pre-industrial times but there was a slowdown in the rate of warming for 15 years before 2014.

Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and another author, said: “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.” He added that the group of about a dozen computer models, produced by government institutes and universities around the world, had been assembled a decade ago “so it’s not that surprising that it’s starting to divert a little bit from observations”. Too many of the models used “were on the hot side”, meaning they forecast too much warming.

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline morekaos

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 307
  • -Received: 326
  • Posts: 3166
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2017, 02:29:36 PM »
And our fearless leader says....

Jerry Brown compares Trump supporters to cave dwellers

By DAVID SIDERS 09/18/2017 02:16 PM EDT

California Gov. Jerry Brown on Monday called President Donald Trump’s approach to climate change and North Korea “stupid and dangerous and silly,” sharpening his criticism of the president and comparing his supporters to cave dwellers.

“They’re both kind of very similar,” Brown said at a climate change event in New York. “You should check out the derivation of ‘Trump-ite’ and ‘troglodyte,’ because they both refer to people who dwell in deep, dark caves.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/18/jerry-brown-criticize-trump-supporters-242846

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2095
  • -Received: 1663
  • Posts: 8241
  • Gender: Male
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2017, 10:33:22 PM »
And our fearless leader says....

Jerry Brown compares Trump supporters to cave dwellers

By DAVID SIDERS 09/18/2017 02:16 PM EDT

California Gov. Jerry Brown on Monday called President Donald Trump’s approach to climate change and North Korea “stupid and dangerous and silly,” sharpening his criticism of the president and comparing his supporters to cave dwellers.

“They’re both kind of very similar,” Brown said at a climate change event in New York. “You should check out the derivation of ‘Trump-ite’ and ‘troglodyte,’ because they both refer to people who dwell in deep, dark caves.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/18/jerry-brown-criticize-trump-supporters-242846

Moonbeam should mind his business and focus on bringing corporations back to CA. 
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA BRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 509
  • -Received: 333
  • Posts: 1721
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2017, 02:09:37 PM »
Moonbeam should mind his business and focus on bringing corporations back to CA. 

The Politician Behind California High Speed Rail Now Says It's 'Almost a Crime'
Quentin Kopp convinced voters to approve the project. Now he's suing to kill it.

California's high speed rail line was sold to voters on the bold promise that it will someday whisk passengers between San Francisco and Los Angeles in under three hours. Nine years later, the project has turned into such a disaster that its biggest political champion is now suing to stop it.

An icon of California politics known as the "Great Dissenter," Quentin L. Kopp introduced the legislation that established the rail line, and became chairman of the High-Speed Rail Authority. He helped convince voters in 2008 to hand over $9 billion in bonds to the Rail Authority to get the project going. Since he left, Kopp says the agency mangled his plans.

"It is foolish, and it is almost a crime to sell bonds and encumber the taxpayers of California at a time when this is no longer high-speed rail," says Kopp. "And the litigation, which is pending, will result, I am confident, in the termination of the High-Speed Rail Authority's deceiving plan."

Voters supported the bond measure to pay for construction on the condition that the train would be self-sustaining. But multiple outside analyses conclude that the Rail Authority will have to massively hike ticket prices or rely on taxpayer largess. According to one recent estimate, the project's latest iteration would suck up at least $100 million in annual subsidies.

Since 2008, lawsuits have multiplied, private investors have fled, and even the official price tag has nearly doubled, from $33 billion to $64 billion. When the legislature cleared the way for the Rail Authority to begin selling the voter-approved bonds in early 2017 to fund construction, the agency declared it a "milestone."

Kopp was livid.

"It's deceit. That's not a milestone, it's desperation, because High-Speed Rail Authority is out of money," Kopp told Reason.

As for the often-promised environmental benefits of high-speed rail, Flashman acknowledges they won't materialize in California. Rail lines around the world have failed to remove cars from the road, and according to Feigenbaum, the initial construction of the California line alone would release more greenhouse gases than the train could recoup in 80 years.

California's project will be both the slowest bullet train in the world—and the most expensive. The Rail Authority cut costs by using track mixed with conventional rail, which means the train won't reach the speeds they promise. Coupled with a sinewy route that winds its way between endpoints, that means it will never go from Los Angeles to San Francisco in the promised 2 hours and 40 minutes.

The train, if it ever comes to pass, will also be competing with air travel at a time when a new generation of quiet supersonic planes is about to take flight. Autonomous vehicles will soon give passengers the same freedom to sleep, work, or read as train travelers. And then there's Elon Musk's plans for hyperloop pod transport in a near-vacuum tube at speeds up to 800 miles per hour.

"If government gets out of the way of deciding which transportation modes we need in the future," says Feigenbaum, "the private sector will do a much better job of innovating and creating profitable transportation modes that people want to use, instead of locking in a sub-optimal choice from the nineteenth century."

http://reason.com/reasontv/2017/09/20/quentin-kopp-bullet-train-flashman

Offline HMart

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 161
  • -Received: 46
  • Posts: 373
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2017, 04:29:00 PM »
http://reason.com/reasontv/2017/09/20/quentin-kopp-bullet-train-flashman

If you want to go full libertarian, freeways in California should become toll roads. "user fees" instead of subsidized infrastructure handouts to drivers. "User pays" principle is completely eroded since gas taxes have gone down in real dollars while costs have gone up. http://reason.com/blog/2015/11/20/how-to-fix-southern-californias-traffic

Then let's talk about private transportation solutions.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 509
  • -Received: 333
  • Posts: 1721
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2017, 09:06:13 AM »
I think the difference is that our freeways get used by tens of millions of people every day.  The slow-speed "bullet" train would probably have ridership in the hundreds.  I'm fine with using tolls to pay for new freeways - I use the 241 every day - but what I don't like is this idea of charging tolls for existing freeways that taxpayers have already funded.  For example, they want to create a toll lane on the 405 in north Orange County.  That's just wrong.

The argument is often made that the gas tax is too low, but it's only going to get worse with electric/hybrid vehicles becoming more popular, so why don't they just eliminate the gas tax and create a new tax on vehicle registrations.  People with more expensive cars would pay more and people with junkers would pay the least.  That would be much fairer than the gas tax which is a highly regressive tax that hits poor people the hardest.

That's another Jerry Brown contradiction.  He's supposedly a liberal that believes in taxing the rich and helping the poor, but then he jacks the gas tax up by 30 cents a gallon.  Poor people are not the ones driving electric vehicles and they have the longest commutes from the IE, so they are getting hurt the most by this.

Offline HMart

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 161
  • -Received: 46
  • Posts: 373
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2017, 10:12:25 AM »
You could look at it just from an economic demand-management perspective. I drive the 405 every day into Irvine (shock, I don't live in Irvine right now) and wish there was a toll lane on the 405. When a good is priced too low, demand is sky high. The fact that the gas tax is actually not enough to cover costs is a related concept but not the only factor in play. You're right that the gas tax is not a perfect proxy for number of miles driven--ideal would be Fastrak everywhere. A fundamental libertarian principle is that users pay for what they use, so vehicle registration is a terrible way to tax people for using roads since many junkers get driven more than expensive cars.

Offline morekaos

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 307
  • -Received: 326
  • Posts: 3166
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2017, 11:25:08 AM »
This topic makes my head...


Offline eyephone

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 339
  • -Received: 588
  • Posts: 10297
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2017, 11:32:11 AM »
http://reason.com/reasontv/2017/09/20/quentin-kopp-bullet-train-flashman

If you want to go full libertarian, freeways in California should become toll roads. "user fees" instead of subsidized infrastructure handouts to drivers. "User pays" principle is completely eroded since gas taxes have gone down in real dollars while costs have gone up. http://reason.com/blog/2015/11/20/how-to-fix-southern-californias-traffic

Then let's talk about private transportation solutions.

Are you joking? More toll roads? (In my opinion it's another form of a tax.)
Aren't we paying extra gas tax for California infrastructure?

If you go to NY and NJ toll roads galore in general. (Pass on that)

« Last Edit: September 22, 2017, 11:58:25 AM by eyephone »

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline morekaos

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 307
  • -Received: 326
  • Posts: 3166
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2018, 06:07:43 AM »
Irony is so ironic.

Scientists Get Buried In Snow At Davos While Lecturing On Global Warming

Climate scientists hope their mock camp illustrates how global warming could impact the Arctic, but the “Gore effect” may make it harder to get the message across. Davos has seen frigid temperatures along with about six feet of snow in the last six days.

http://dailycaller.com/2018/01/23/davos-scientists-snow-switzerland-world-economic-forum/

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline morekaos

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 307
  • -Received: 326
  • Posts: 3166
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2018, 09:53:29 AM »
Ooops...

Climate change is ‘not as bad as we thought’ say scientists

CLIMATE change is likely to be markedly less severe than forecast, a study claimed yesterday.

It predicted that the impact could be up to 45 per cent less intense than is widely accepted.

But the study emerged as other scientists said winter waves pounding the Scottish and Irish coasts have grown grow by up to 5ft 6in (1.7metres) over the past 70 years.

Rising sea levels and more intense storms are in line with global warming forecasts.

The study questioning the future intensity of climate change was carried out by American climatologist Judith Curry and UK mathematician Nick Lewis.

It is based on analysing the warming effect of greenhouse gases and other drivers of climate change, from the mid 19th century until 2016.

It forecast that future warming will be between 30 per cent and 45 per cent lower than suggested by simulations carried out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel one Climate Change.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/950748/climate-change-scientists-impact-not-as-bad-on-planet


Offline StarmanMBA

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 41
  • -Received: 8
  • Posts: 144
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2018, 10:38:25 AM »

Climate scientists hope their mock camp illustrates how global warming could impact the Arctic, but the “Gore effect” may make it harder to get the message across. Davos has seen frigid temperatures along with about six feet of snow in the last six days.


The last time they had an EcoHypocrisy Conference at Davos, 1400 private jets flew in the High and Mighty, burning millions of gallons of nasty, evil fossil fuel, which they all pretend to hate.

Then there was another EcoHypocrisy Conference in Scandanavia, to which Prince Charles flew in his private jet while the Prime Minister flew in HIS private jet.

Why these EcoHypocrites don't videoconference is clear.  They can travel on other people's money and feel good about their mutual back-slapping, while wining and dining in posh resort hotels. 

I have an incredible link to the EcoHypocrite Conferences worldwide.  It seems like there's one every single day somewhere, to which hundreds can come and burn gasoline while preaching NOT burning any of it.

Here you are:

https://conferencealerts.com/topic-listing?topic=Environment
qwerty:  Hey StarmanMBA, go fuck yourself.
(Thank you:  Burn That Belly, id_rather_be_racing, misme, eyephone, fortune11)

Classy bunch.

"...expos'd the fool and lash'd the knave." - Jonathan Swift

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline StarmanMBA

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 41
  • -Received: 8
  • Posts: 144
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2018, 02:15:29 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCy_UOjEir0&t=452s

Nobel Laureate in Physics, Ivar Giaever smashes the climate change hoax.
qwerty:  Hey StarmanMBA, go fuck yourself.
(Thank you:  Burn That Belly, id_rather_be_racing, misme, eyephone, fortune11)

Classy bunch.

"...expos'd the fool and lash'd the knave." - Jonathan Swift

Offline inv0ke-epipen

  • Yearning for 949 / 714
  • **
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 56
  • -Received: 46
  • Posts: 217
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2018, 02:31:02 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCy_UOjEir0&t=452s

Nobel Laureate in Physics, Ivar Giaever smashes the climate change hoax.

Wow, looks like Climate Change has been proved wrong. Thanks YouTube.

Wait, except that's not how science works. The scientific consensus is that the globe is warming. Why dull humanities sharpest tool to fit your worldview by only linking the few scientists that disagree? You could paste 100 links with evidence of global warming for every one posted here denying it. 

Are you aware of the similar "debate" around leaded gasoline? Turns out the few scientists that didn't agree gasoline was causing the elevated lead levels were on the payroll of the lead companies. Follow the money, see who these dissenting voices are being funded by.

I think you profoundly underestimate the scientific community if you think the majority of them would support a hoax. If evidence is discovered that shows there is no global warming, the scientific consensus would likely change after careful review and validation of said evidence.

I'll state it again, science is our sharpest tool, don't dull it to protect your narrative.

The real debate should be the economic impact of global warming mitigation vs the actual cost of a warmed planet. Is it worth regulating our industries when other countries are not? Is the actual damage done by warming likely to be significant to warrant such restrictions and regulation? Just denying it is like putting your head in the ground and yelling la la la in the face of mountains of evidence.

A great blog if you want to learn more about weather, especially from a Californian perspective, is WeatherWest: http://weatherwest.com/

I recommend taking a look at some of those articles to get a better understanding of the changing climate and what climate scientists are actually thinking about (Hint: its not about the liberal conspiracy takeover of industry to stop a fake global warming)


« Last Edit: May 08, 2018, 02:36:25 PM by inv0ke-epipen »

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline morekaos

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 307
  • -Received: 326
  • Posts: 3166
Re: Experts admit global warming predictions wrong
« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2018, 04:09:22 PM »
Define “consensus”.

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Related Links

Recent Posts

Re: Tesla Solar Panels Price Cut by zubs
[Today at 02:42:28 PM]


Re: God? by Panda
[Today at 12:06:39 PM]


Re: Tesla Solar Panels Price Cut by eyephone
[Today at 09:38:34 AM]


Attempted Murder By Transient by Dresden215
[Today at 09:21:36 AM]


Re: Solar mandate by irvine buyer
[Today at 08:17:12 AM]