>$1.5mil market slowing down?

wacoonist

New member
I was over at OH/Messina last weekend and was surprised to find out there were quite a few lots available.  I remember last year at about the same time, Plan 3 was all sold out.  I was really surprised at that price level the only way to get in was to join the long waiting list, and for the remaining lots next to 261!?  Fast forward a year later, there are more lots available for Plan 2 and 3 than Plan 1, and the price of the cheaper Plan 1 (was $1.5ish) has caught up to Plan 3 (~$1.7) while Plan 3 itself remains stagnant.  Is the >$1.5mil market slowing down?
 
I'd think Altair is in competitions with OH Neighborhood 3 or 4.  OH Neighborhood 1 buyers don't mind the TUSD and the proximity to 261, I'd think they r a slightly different breed.  It also doesn't explain ~the $1.5m catching up to the ~$1.7m at Neighborhood 1 of OH over the past year, unless Altair is starting at $1.7m, flooding the supplies at that level.

 
wacoonist said:
I'd think Altair is in competitions with OH Neighborhood 3 or 4.  OH Neighborhood 1 buyers don't mind the TUSD and the proximity to 261, I'd think they r a slightly different breed.  It also doesn't explain ~the $1.5m catching up to the ~$1.7m at Neighborhood 1 of OH over the past year, unless Altair is starting at $1.7m, flooding the supplies at that level.

I disagree. Altair will be competing with the groves. Most high end buyers are pickier and look at all the products available in their price range.

Have you compared lots to try to explain the price difference? You can't just look at absolute prices. Must consider lot size of homes released last year and this year.
 
Rtlguru said:
wacoonist said:
I'd think Altair is in competitions with OH Neighborhood 3 or 4.  OH Neighborhood 1 buyers don't mind the TUSD and the proximity to 261, I'd think they r a slightly different breed.  It also doesn't explain ~the $1.5m catching up to the ~$1.7m at Neighborhood 1 of OH over the past year, unless Altair is starting at $1.7m, flooding the supplies at that level.

I disagree. Altair will be competing with the groves. Most high end buyers are pickier and look at all the products available in their price range.

Have you compared lots to try to explain the price difference? You can't just look at absolute prices. Must consider lot size of homes released last year and this year.

There aren't many gated communities that are high end. This will compete.  Well see how it does and how it's priced.
 
Rtlguru said:
wacoonist said:
I'd think Altair is in competitions with OH Neighborhood 3 or 4.  OH Neighborhood 1 buyers don't mind the TUSD and the proximity to 261, I'd think they r a slightly different breed.  It also doesn't explain ~the $1.5m catching up to the ~$1.7m at Neighborhood 1 of OH over the past year, unless Altair is starting at $1.7m, flooding the supplies at that level.

I disagree. Altair will be competing with the groves. Most high end buyers are pickier and look at all the products available in their price range.

Have you compared lots to try to explain the price difference? You can't just look at absolute prices. Must consider lot size of homes released last year and this year.

Agreed, buyers in the $1.5m+ market are very picky as there is more to pick from than in the sub $1m market.  Trophy properties are still selling well.
 
Then why r u discounting the east grove (Neighborhood 3 or 4) as part of the competitions? Wouldn't you think the east grove in IUSD and away from 261 be closer in comparison to Altair?  We really like Messina, but couldn't pull the plug for those reasons.  We decided to wait for the east grove.  I'm not sure if TriPointe or similar floorplans would be available or if we can afford it -  there could be some substantial price jump.

That's obvious, in order to compare apples to apples.  To give you an example, Plan 3 with a 5400sf lot closer to 261 is now at $1.75 as opposed to $1.65 last year.  Whereas the smaller Plan 1 with a private inside corner lot at 5800sf was $1.54m last year.  Same plan with a substantially smaller lot at 4750sf next to 261 is now $1.67m, a price jump of $.13mil, yet with a much smaller lot and poorer location, so u r actually talking about something closer to a price jump of $.15mil vs the $.1mil of the bigger plan.  The prices from last year are bare bones with no grades and the price for this year has the same basic upgrades included.

Rtlguru said:
wacoonist said:
I'd think Altair is in competitions with OH Neighborhood 3 or 4.  OH Neighborhood 1 buyers don't mind the TUSD and the proximity to 261, I'd think they r a slightly different breed.  It also doesn't explain ~the $1.5m catching up to the ~$1.7m at Neighborhood 1 of OH over the past year, unless Altair is starting at $1.7m, flooding the supplies at that level.

I disagree. Altair will be competing with the groves. Most high end buyers are pickier and look at all the products available in their price range.

Have you compared lots to try to explain the price difference? You can't just look at absolute prices. Must consider lot size of homes released last year and this year.
 
wacoonist said:
Then why r u discounting the east grove (Neighborhood 3 or 4) as part of the competitions? Wouldn't you think the east grove in IUSD and away from 261 be closer in comparison to Altair?  We really like Messina, but couldn't pull the plug for those reasons.  We decided to wait for the east grove.  I'm not sure if TriPointe or similar floorplans would be available or if we can afford it -  there could be some substantial price jump.

That's obvious, in order to compare apples to apples.  To give you an example, Plan 3 with a 5400sf lot closer to 261 is now at $1.75 as opposed to $1.65 last year.  Whereas the smaller Plan 1 with a private inside corner lot at 5800sf was $1.54m last year.  Same plan with a substantially smaller lot at 4750sf next to 261 is now $1.67m, a price jump of $.13mil, yet with a much smaller lot and poorer location, so u r actually talking about something closer to a price jump of $.15mil vs the $.1mil of the bigger plan.  The prices from last year are bare bones with no grades and the price for this year has the same basic upgrades included.

Rtlguru said:
wacoonist said:
I'd think Altair is in competitions with OH Neighborhood 3 or 4.  OH Neighborhood 1 buyers don't mind the TUSD and the proximity to 261, I'd think they r a slightly different breed.  It also doesn't explain ~the $1.5m catching up to the ~$1.7m at Neighborhood 1 of OH over the past year, unless Altair is starting at $1.7m, flooding the supplies at that level.

I disagree. Altair will be competing with the groves. Most high end buyers are pickier and look at all the products available in their price range.

Have you compared lots to try to explain the price difference? You can't just look at absolute prices. Must consider lot size of homes released last year and this year.

Huh? I said nothing about east grove. Not sure where you got that I was discounting it.

You just answered your own question about Messina. They jacked prices on inferior lots - hence the standing inventory.
 
So, what do you disagree with?  I said that the east grove (Neighborhood 3 and 4) without the toll road and in IUSD would be closer in comparison to Altair.  High end buyers are picky and would discern small differences.  And the toll road the school district are big negatives on many buyers list not just high end, so u are validating my points in every single aspect!?

Rtlguru said:
You just answered your own question about Messina. They jacked prices on inferior lots - hence the standing inventory.
Huh?  Jacked prices on inferior lots?  That was my observation, not an answer.
 
wacoonist said:
So, what do you disagree with?  I said that the east grove (Neighborhood 3 and 4) without the toll road and in IUSD would be closer in comparison to Altair.  High end buyers are picky and would discern small differences.  And the toll road the school district are big negatives on many buyers list not just high end, so u are validating my points in every single aspect!?

Rtlguru said:
You just answered your own question about Messina. They jacked prices on inferior lots - hence the standing inventory.
Huh?  Jacked prices on inferior lots?  That was my observation, not an answer.

Altair will compete with them all. Especially with OH tusd side that is gated. Now you can be in gated area and IUSD.
 
I am in the market to buy in OH.  I also really like Messina but do not like the locations and the small size of the avilable lots near the toll road.  We are trying to decide if we should wait for Neighborhood 3 or buy resale.  Padova and Varenna are too close to the toll riads as well. 

We really like the vibe of OH.  I think Altair, Beacon Park, Pavillion Park, Woodbury will have a similar feels as Westpark and Woodbridge in the future.  OH is more like Turtle Rock and Ridge where it is tucked away in the hills.

There is a Messina resale available that I really liked but was priced Out of my range but I noticed they just lowered the price by 100K.  So we are now considering that one as well.
 
jmoney74 said:
wacoonist said:
So, what do you disagree with?  I said that the east grove (Neighborhood 3 and 4) without the toll road and in IUSD would be closer in comparison to Altair.  High end buyers are picky and would discern small differences.  And the toll road the school district are big negatives on many buyers list not just high end, so u are validating my points in every single aspect!?

Rtlguru said:
You just answered your own question about Messina. They jacked prices on inferior lots - hence the standing inventory.
Huh?  Jacked prices on inferior lots?  That was my observation, not an answer.

Altair will compete with them all. Especially with OH tusd side that is gated. Now you can be in gated area and IUSD.

 
You might want to check out Altair location again; It is also tucked away in Hills.

OCres said:
I am in the market to buy in OH.  I also really like Messina but do not like the locations and the small size of the avilable lots near the toll road.  We are trying to decide if we should wait for Neighborhood 3 or buy resale.  Padova and Varenna are too close to the toll riads as well. 

We really like the vibe of OH.  I think Altair, Beacon Park, Pavillion Park, Woodbury will have a similar feels as Westpark and Woodbridge in the future.  OH is more like Turtle Rock and Ridge where it is tucked away in the hills.

There is a Messina resale available that I really liked but was priced Out of my range but I noticed they just lowered the price by 100K.  So we are now considering that one as well.
 
OCLuvr said:
You might want to check out Altair location again; It is also tucked away in Hills.

OCres said:
I am in the market to buy in OH.  I also really like Messina but do not like the locations and the small size of the avilable lots near the toll road.  We are trying to decide if we should wait for Neighborhood 3 or buy resale.  Padova and Varenna are too close to the toll riads as well. 

We really like the vibe of OH.  I think Altair, Beacon Park, Pavillion Park, Woodbury will have a similar feels as Westpark and Woodbridge in the future.  OH is more like Turtle Rock and Ridge where it is tucked away in the hills.

There is a Messina resale available that I really liked but was priced Out of my range but I noticed they just lowered the price by 100K.  So we are now considering that one as well.

Like your name!!

Yes you are right but I guess I just love the feel of OH.  Secluded and Quiet but still 5-10 minutes from everything I need.  To me Altair will have a more urban feel close to WBtown and  freeways.  The modern design of the homes may be a perfect fit for the location.  I think it will attract different buyers then OH.  Sure some will be thinking of both but they are different products.

Also just want to say that I have done a fair amount of research and this site has been a valuable source.  Now that I am getting serious at buying I look forward to participating in many of the discussions.

 
OCres said:
I am in the market to buy in OH.  I also really like Messina but do not like the locations and the small size of the avilable lots near the toll road.  We are trying to decide if we should wait for Neighborhood 3 or buy resale.  Padova and Varenna are too close to the toll riads as well. 

We really like the vibe of OH.  I think Altair, Beacon Park, Pavillion Park, Woodbury will have a similar feels as Westpark and Woodbridge in the future.  OH is more like Turtle Rock and Ridge where it is tucked away in the hills.

There is a Messina resale available that I really liked but was priced Out of my range but I noticed they just lowered the price by 100K.  So we are now considering that one as well.

I'm with you. Messina was my top choice, specifically its plan 2, when we were shopping a couple years ago. The lot sizes available were a big concern. Ultimately chose a lower price point in OH with a decent, relatively speaking, lot.
 
I hear you.  Messina's floorplans are the only ones we like in OH, but the toll road and lot size are big concerns.  Apparently at $1.7m, you still have to make lots of compromises in Irvine.  I prefer Plan 1 or 3, so we won't be in competition.  ;)

Perspective said:
OCres said:
I am in the market to buy in OH.  I also really like Messina but do not like the locations and the small size of the avilable lots near the toll road.  We are trying to decide if we should wait for Neighborhood 3 or buy resale.  Padova and Varenna are too close to the toll riads as well. 

We really like the vibe of OH.  I think Altair, Beacon Park, Pavillion Park, Woodbury will have a similar feels as Westpark and Woodbridge in the future.  OH is more like Turtle Rock and Ridge where it is tucked away in the hills.

There is a Messina resale available that I really liked but was priced Out of my range but I noticed they just lowered the price by 100K.  So we are now considering that one as well.

I'm with you. Messina was my top choice, specifically its plan 2, when we were shopping a couple years ago. The lot sizes available were a big concern. Ultimately chose a lower price point in OH with a decent, relatively speaking, lot.
 
Yep.  Agreed 100%.  Altair and OH 3, 4 would be in direction competition.

jmoney74 said:
wacoonist said:
So, what do you disagree with?  I said that the east grove (Neighborhood 3 and 4) without the toll road and in IUSD would be closer in comparison to Altair.  High end buyers are picky and would discern small differences.  And the toll road the school district are big negatives on many buyers list not just high end, so u are validating my points in every single aspect!?

Rtlguru said:
You just answered your own question about Messina. They jacked prices on inferior lots - hence the standing inventory.
Huh?  Jacked prices on inferior lots?  That was my observation, not an answer.

Altair will compete with them all. Especially with OH tusd side that is gated. Now you can be in gated area and IUSD.
 
OCres said:
I am in the market to buy in OH.  I also really like Messina but do not like the locations and the small size of the avilable lots near the toll road.  We are trying to decide if we should wait for Neighborhood 3 or buy resale.  Padova and Varenna are too close to the toll riads as well. 

We really like the vibe of OH.  I think Altair, Beacon Park, Pavillion Park, Woodbury will have a similar feels as Westpark and Woodbridge in the future.  OH is more like Turtle Rock and Ridge where it is tucked away in the hills.

There is a Messina resale available that I really liked but was priced Out of my range but I noticed they just lowered the price by 100K.  So we are now considering that one as well.

Why not consider one of the remaining new homes in the $1.7s?  Then you can pick your own options.  That home is still grossly overpriced.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
OCres said:
I am in the market to buy in OH.  I also really like Messina but do not like the locations and the small size of the avilable lots near the toll road.  We are trying to decide if we should wait for Neighborhood 3 or buy resale.  Padova and Varenna are too close to the toll riads as well. 

We really like the vibe of OH.  I think Altair, Beacon Park, Pavillion Park, Woodbury will have a similar feels as Westpark and Woodbridge in the future.  OH is more like Turtle Rock and Ridge where it is tucked away in the hills.

There is a Messina resale available that I really liked but was priced Out of my range but I noticed they just lowered the price by 100K.  So we are now considering that one as well.

Why not consider one of the remaining new homes in the $1.7s?  Then you can pick your own options.  That home is still grossly overpriced.

As I said lots are tiny and way too close to the toll roads.  Have you seen that Messina resale?  How much do you think is fair price?
 
OCres said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
OCres said:
I am in the market to buy in OH.  I also really like Messina but do not like the locations and the small size of the avilable lots near the toll road.  We are trying to decide if we should wait for Neighborhood 3 or buy resale.  Padova and Varenna are too close to the toll riads as well. 

We really like the vibe of OH.  I think Altair, Beacon Park, Pavillion Park, Woodbury will have a similar feels as Westpark and Woodbridge in the future.  OH is more like Turtle Rock and Ridge where it is tucked away in the hills.

There is a Messina resale available that I really liked but was priced Out of my range but I noticed they just lowered the price by 100K.  So we are now considering that one as well.

Why not consider one of the remaining new homes in the $1.7s?  Then you can pick your own options.  That home is still grossly overpriced.

As I said lots are tiny and way too close to the toll roads.  Have you seen that Messina resale?  How much do you think is fair price?

How about Hidden Canyon?  You can get the smaller lot 5700sq for $2.2m plus extra 1000sq of living space.  It will feel a lot bigger than the same size lot in Messina since your backyard is never butt up against your neighbor in Hidden Canyon.  tbh, I think there are only a handful of decent lots in Messina, it's either too close to 261, Culver, the gate or settlers.  That Plan 2 resale is grossly overpriced coz the seller is trying to recoup his $500k upgrades at full cost.
 
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