Author Topic: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !  (Read 24137 times)

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Offline dream16

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$900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« on: December 21, 2016, 04:48:13 PM »
Hello Fellow Irvinians (if there's anything like that):

I would like to know from the senior-experienced members on this forum about the speculations that we will see a 20% drop in prices in the next 2 years (say by Dec 2018). Considering the infamous 7 year high & low cycle, will we ever be closer to the infamous 2011 drops? Based on my research, the southern california (orange county) market was only hit 20-25% even in the worst times of 2011 when entire housing collapsed.

Since it will be my second home purchase in Irvine, i have to strategize and focus on :

1. Sell foreign property to pump in the 20% down payment of 900k = $180k
2. Speculations dictate that interest rates will be upto 5% by 2019: i don't have the magic ball
3. New speculations are there about removing the tax break allowed to Californians who own a 2nd home, 31k people used it last year, i am not sure what is the future there as the golden welfare state now wants to house the homeless at the expense of hard working middle class.
4. I have had my big share of lessons learnt in my 1st condo purchase, so trying to learn from them as well as do much better this time.

5. From a tax-perspective, what are some of the key areas i need to focus on? Just paid a heavy yearly tax bill of nearly $9000 --> so not sure how much will Uncle sam give back to me (other than that i will deduct all interest paid).

6. From a mortgage - lender perspective, other than maintaining a stable job (W2) and showing corporate profits, what else do i need to think of?

Thank You Folks

PS: Irvine may not be the end of the world for me but by 2019, i will have to think about family planning etc, so schools again becomes the priority and i love So CAL and after living in Irvine, not sure if i can go anywhere else other than Newport /Huntington/Laguna etc. i.e. basically close to the beach, but not sure how to buy a single family for <1 million.

Offline lnc

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2016, 05:57:38 PM »
We won't see a 20% drop in the next 2 years.

I believe that the last housing bubble completely screwed up that regular 7-10 years housing cycle we used to see and we may not see the next down turn for a while.

Irvine's housing is really heated up but nationally, we really have not fully recover from that last down turn yet. Also that the last down turn was "the great housing bubble" that does not happen often and in that once in a life time down turn event Irvine's housing was only down by 20-25%, a normal down term will be way less severe than that.  10-15% price drop at the most is my guess in the future housing slow down. 

And if Irvine's housing really did drop more than 20% sometime in the future, Trump probably is at war with China or some kind of global financial Armageddon is happening,  you probably are not in the market to buy a house.  :)


Offline LA168

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2016, 07:18:02 PM »
Never say never with Trump as the next president. Hah..... ;D

jmoney74

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2016, 07:38:33 PM »
I think PS has sfrs for high 900s.

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2016, 08:00:37 PM »
I think PS has sfrs for high 900s.

yup

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2016, 08:26:19 PM »
I think PS has sfrs for high 900s.

yup

Las Ventanas Plan 2 & 3 in the low to high $900s
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2016, 07:46:51 AM »
20% drop predictions now is like the 50% drop predictions in 2008.

:)
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Offline lnc

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2016, 12:00:09 PM »
20% drop predictions now is like the 50% drop predictions in 2008.

:)

^^^ This!


Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2016, 02:44:15 PM »
Wishful thinking. Its Christmas after all.

Offline irvineshadow

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2016, 02:45:51 PM »
I thought the drop was pretty substantial.  It would take quite a black swan to bring us anywhere near there again. 

Offline eyephone

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« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 04:11:54 PM by eyephone »

Offline aquabliss

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2016, 11:20:02 PM »
IndieDev is that you?!?!

Offline hello

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2016, 08:43:57 AM »
My two main concerns in the future are these:

1.  rising rates.  we have had almost 1% increase in rates.  This is about a 10% drop in affordability for the same priced house.  Thus there will be more downward pressure on home prices with rising rates.

2.  new tax plan from Trump.  There was discussion about getting rid of property tax deduction (no plans for MID changes I believe).  assuming 1M dollar home, property taxes will be over 1k a month, which would be about 3-4 hundred dollar deduction per month.  Also there is talk about increasing standard deduction to 30K, which would make MID useless for many.  This phases out any tax advantage of owning a home, again putting downward pressure on home prices. 


If both of the two mentioned above turn out to be true, I guarantee home prices will fall.   Just dont ask me how much it will fall...

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2016, 09:07:38 AM »
My two main concerns in the future are these:

1.  rising rates.  we have had almost 1% increase in rates.  This is about a 10% drop in affordability for the same priced house.  Thus there will be more downward pressure on home prices with rising rates.

2.  new tax plan from Trump.  There was discussion about getting rid of property tax deduction (no plans for MID changes I believe).  assuming 1M dollar home, property taxes will be over 1k a month, which would be about 3-4 hundred dollar deduction per month.  Also there is talk about increasing standard deduction to 30K, which would make MID useless for many.  This phases out any tax advantage of owning a home, again putting downward pressure on home prices. 


If both of the two mentioned above turn out to be true, I guarantee home prices will fall.   Just dont ask me how much it will fall...

If you think state/local tax deductions won't be around in a year, better pay next year's property taxes before dec 31.

Offline lnc

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Re: $900k for Single Family Home in Irvine? 2019 possibilities !
« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2016, 10:23:41 AM »
Despite all these, I still see a 5% housing price increase in Irvine on average in 2017.

Raising mortgage rate will slow down the price increase but for now, it will not cause the price to drop just yet. 

Perhaps some thing might happen in 2019 but it's still too far out to tell.  Housing probably will continue to increase around 5% per year though 2018 and if there a slow down in 2019 with a 10% drop, the price are only drop back to today's price level. 






 

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