Author Topic: Dow?  (Read 596905 times)

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Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1785 on: May 20, 2022, 10:18:14 AM »
Steady...Hold!...Hold!!!... ;D ;D >:D


Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1786 on: May 20, 2022, 12:58:07 PM »
Significant intraday reversal.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1787 on: May 22, 2022, 01:06:15 PM »
Get ready for the SP500 CRASH.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1788 on: May 22, 2022, 05:29:09 PM »
LOL! I have cash for that for sure which means probably ain't happening.

Got some calls on dxcm, not a cheap stock for sure but we shall see how that works out.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1789 on: May 22, 2022, 08:19:54 PM »
How much cash do any you think one should be in given where we are right now?

20%, 30% or more of your total portfolio or none at all and let it ride?

Me, I am holding about 28% cash or cash-like.

The way down is longer than I like it to be, I think this time around.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1790 on: May 24, 2022, 01:05:04 PM »
TGT is getting bloodbath.

Would you buy here?

TGT is but a signpost for what is coming...recession!

Walmart, Target foreshadow more consumer stress and trouble ahead for economy and markets

Walmart and Target, back to back last week, reported lower-than-expected earnings amid a surprisingly quick shift in consumer spending and higher costs, including transportation and overstaffing. 

Walmart's results foreshadow "what could be a more challenging backdrop for others, and we see most risk ahead at lower-end below $50,000 household income level," said Oliver Chen, a senior equity research analyst at Cowen.

Best Buy and Nordstrom were set report earnings Tuesday, while Costco, Macy's, and Dollar General are due Thursday.

Investors will be looking for confirmation of a shifting consumer and economy in these reports.

Inflation bite leads to inventory gluts
Walmart said consumers, facing the highest inflation rate in 40 years, suddenly cut back on discretionary spending on things like clothes and patio furniture to afford everyday items like food and other consumables.

Target said its consumers shifted their spending from televisions, bikes, and kitchen appliances to items that enhance experiences.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/walmart-target-foreshadow-more-consumer-stress-and-trouble-ahead-for-economy-and-markets/ar-AAXCNdb

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1791 on: May 24, 2022, 03:54:01 PM »
How much cash do any you think one should be in given where we are right now?

20%, 30% or more of your total portfolio or none at all and let it ride?

Me, I am holding about 28% cash or cash-like.

The way down is longer than I like it to be, I think this time around.
In the event of a recession, there will be plenty of fear once those GDP numbers come out and show that we had 2 quarters of no growth. But think about it, when that happens, you are one Fed talk away from having markets bounce once they announce they will be less aggressive or hint at not raising rates as much as they planned. The other way can happen as well, if inflation numbers don't cool down, Fed might become too hawkish and raise rates even more aggressively which will push equities down even further. Now it's about which scenario you think will occur? :)

For me, I don't even bother gambling with the volatility that we have now. I personally DCA each time there is fear and buy in small increments.

Offline OCtoSV

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1792 on: May 24, 2022, 04:10:50 PM »
How much cash do any you think one should be in given where we are right now?

20%, 30% or more of your total portfolio or none at all and let it ride?

Me, I am holding about 28% cash or cash-like.

The way down is longer than I like it to be, I think this time around.
In the event of a recession, there will be plenty of fear once those GDP numbers come out and show that we had 2 quarters of no growth. But think about it, when that happens, you are one Fed talk away from having markets bounce once they announce they will be less aggressive or hint at not raising rates as much as they planned. The other way can happen as well, if inflation numbers don't cool down, Fed might become too hawkish and raise rates even more aggressively which will push equities down even further. Now it's about which scenario you think will occur? :)

For me, I don't even bother gambling with the volatility that we have now. I personally DCA each time there is fear and buy in small increments.

I DCA as well on a monthly basis but I also have a CFA managing my portfolio. His Aggressive Growth portfolio is constructed with a 1.9% yield - so glad to be done with 20+ yrs of DYI. But I am also resigned to markets tanking until Trump is re-elected.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1793 on: May 24, 2022, 07:52:34 PM »
Insider sales over the last 12 months:

1. $TSLA: $25.5B

2. $WMT: $20.6B

4. $AMZN: $3.4B

5. $FB: $3.0B

6. $NVDA: $725M

7. $AAPL: $461M

8. $MSFT: $383M

Not a single one of these companies has had an insider buy over the last 12 months.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1794 on: May 25, 2022, 12:36:04 PM »
4-6 more rate hikes coming…can’t say you weren’t warned…fun, fun, fun!!!

There will be blood!..

Fed minutes point to more rate hikes that go further than the market anticipates

Fed minutes released Wednesday indicated that officials are prepared to move ahead with multiple 50 basis points interest rate increases.
In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee said policy may have to move past “neutral” and into “restrictive” territory.
The minutes indicate that members are hopeful they can bring down inflation, but also concerned about financial stability risks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/25/fed-minutes-may-2022.html


Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1795 on: May 26, 2022, 05:30:53 PM »
4-6 more rate hikes coming…can’t say you weren’t warned…fun, fun, fun!!!

There will be blood!..

Fed minutes point to more rate hikes that go further than the market anticipates

Fed minutes released Wednesday indicated that officials are prepared to move ahead with multiple 50 basis points interest rate increases.
In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee said policy may have to move past “neutral” and into “restrictive” territory.
The minutes indicate that members are hopeful they can bring down inflation, but also concerned about financial stability risks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/25/fed-minutes-may-2022.html


Today retail investors rushing in the buy the dip.

The trap is set.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1796 on: May 26, 2022, 05:34:15 PM »
Insider sales over the last 12 months:

1. $TSLA: $25.5B

2. $WMT: $20.6B

4. $AMZN: $3.4B

5. $FB: $3.0B

6. $NVDA: $725M

7. $AAPL: $461M

8. $MSFT: $383M

Not a single one of these companies has had an insider buy over the last 12 months.
TBH why would you buy more shares if you're an insider on a stock that generally outperforms the market? I'd rather use the extra money to instead diversify. If you work at a company and you have no concerns about the future, you don't have to buy your own shares to show the world that something is going on. Insider buying are generally for stocks that need the PR bc their stocks have dropped so much. Not for stocks that generally outperform like the ones you mentioned.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1797 on: May 26, 2022, 08:18:03 PM »
4-6 more rate hikes coming…can’t say you weren’t warned…fun, fun, fun!!!

There will be blood!..

Fed minutes point to more rate hikes that go further than the market anticipates

Fed minutes released Wednesday indicated that officials are prepared to move ahead with multiple 50 basis points interest rate increases.
In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee said policy may have to move past “neutral” and into “restrictive” territory.
The minutes indicate that members are hopeful they can bring down inflation, but also concerned about financial stability risks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/25/fed-minutes-may-2022.html


Today retail investors rushing in the buy the dip.

The trap is set.

You can have some sharp big short covering rallies in bear markets. I think this runs out of steam around 4,100.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1798 on: May 26, 2022, 08:32:26 PM »
4-6 more rate hikes coming…can’t say you weren’t warned…fun, fun, fun!!!

There will be blood!..

Fed minutes point to more rate hikes that go further than the market anticipates

Fed minutes released Wednesday indicated that officials are prepared to move ahead with multiple 50 basis points interest rate increases.
In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee said policy may have to move past “neutral” and into “restrictive” territory.
The minutes indicate that members are hopeful they can bring down inflation, but also concerned about financial stability risks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/25/fed-minutes-may-2022.html


Today retail investors rushing in the buy the dip.

The trap is set.

You can have some sharp big short covering rallies in bear markets. I think this runs out of steam around 4,100.

Yes. That’s my thinking too.


Offline momopi

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1799 on: May 27, 2022, 09:53:22 AM »

I feel like...  small rally for summer followed by a nose dive in fall.

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