Author Topic: Dow?  (Read 323607 times)

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Offline Kings

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1080 on: April 02, 2018, 03:41:55 PM »

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Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1081 on: April 04, 2018, 12:19:42 PM »
I want every gun we have to fire on that market....

« Last Edit: April 05, 2018, 08:01:07 AM by morekaos »

Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1082 on: April 05, 2018, 09:31:35 AM »

Offline fortune11

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1083 on: April 06, 2018, 09:34:47 AM »
Do we get any supply of video clips on the days the Dow sells off   ?   

Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1084 on: April 06, 2018, 10:08:42 AM »

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1085 on: April 06, 2018, 10:40:53 AM »
The Dow is off just under 400 points.  OMG!  As a percentage its less than 2% and historically is daily trading range.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1086 on: April 06, 2018, 10:48:22 AM »
I know but its fun to watch all the hysteria and flaming heads freak out.  It's a job perk.

Offline fortune11

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1087 on: April 06, 2018, 10:58:13 AM »
The Dow is off just under 400 points.  OMG!  As a percentage its less than 2% and historically is daily trading range.

That's exactly my point ... so if the market is up less than 2% on a given day , no need to be cheer leading either !

People with political blinders on will still deny that market is down 9% from its peak in January when everyone was high fiving each other on success of Trump tax cuts  : )

That being said, bullish channel is still intact despite today's selloff . We are still hovering above 200-day S&P moving average of 2593 , but only barely so .  I guess everyone is waiting for a Kudlow appearance on CNBC but may not happen this time ...



Kudlow just learned of Trump’s latest tariffs move last night

04/06/2018 12:59 PM EDT

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow appears to have been blindsided by President Donald Trump’s threat to impose an additional $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports.

Asked by reporters Friday when he first learned of the president’s decision to instruct his top trade official to consider the new tariffs, Kudlow took a lengthy pause before responding: “Last evening.” The White House statement announcing the move went out shortly after 6:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday.

The former CNBC contributor and Reagan administration official has spent the past few days as a self-described “happy warrior” for Trump, who on Tuesday announced plans to hike tariffs by 25 percent on Chinese manufacturing imports and other products worth around $50 billion.

In a counterpunch on Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s commerce department announced plans to level $50 billion in retaliatory tariffs on 106 imported American goods including aircraft, cars, chemicals and soybeans.

Kudlow, who early last month penned an op-ed warning against steep tariffs, has aggressively defended the president’s proposals to cable news anchors and gaggles of reporters outside the White House, attempting to calm markets and placate conservatives turned off by the seemingly anti-free trade maneuvers.

“This is not a trade war,” Kudlow said Friday. “This process, it may include tariffs at the end of the day. It may also not. It may be solved by negotiation.”




Offline morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1088 on: May 15, 2018, 09:31:35 PM »
OH Puleeeeze! The Dow is down 3% year to date.  This is a big boy game. If you don't have the pants to play, you shouldn't try and wear them.

I sold in early January...I guess you thought we were going higher in the new paradigm, but I'm sure deep down inside you knew it was too good to be true. Too many issues surrounding stocks for it to go higher...Libor blowing out, rising rates, facebook stock headed into the toilet.

Not at all. I have been running money for longer than some of you have been alive. Heard its over in 1987 after the crash, 1992 as the Savings and Loan financial market crash, the 3% rise of interest rates in 1994, the 1995 Commercial and residential real estate crash, the 1997 Long Term Capital collapse and the eventual total collapse of ALL world currencies, the 2000-2002 dot-com, 9/11 crash, the second 2005 real estate and mortgage banking collapse. I've seen it all.  Many managers today have NEVER experienced a rising rate cycle.  I have.  It is never different this time.  These markets will move higher by the end of this year, there is little that will stop the cycle. We will be fine....again.


Been saying this about inexperienced managers for around 2 years now...might be why the rate markets have been sluggish to react to the strong economic news, they have never had to.

Rising rates could be problematic because the typical money manager working today has never dealt with them before

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield rose to its highest level since 2011.
The median tenure of an active equity manager is eight years, according to Fundstrat, citing figures gathered from Morningstar.
"There are a lot of people that haven't been through many things in this youthful industry," notes Timothy Parton, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/us-rates-surge-and-most-portfolio-managers-dont-know-what-to-do.html

Offline aquabliss

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1089 on: June 07, 2018, 01:05:46 AM »
Lately all the financial websites are saying market is overvalued, crash is eminent, 30% drop is near... makes me feel a lot more comfortable about doubling down on my investments, all time highs for Dow and S&P may come sooner than I thought.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1090 on: July 26, 2018, 07:26:55 AM »
We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.

And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.  :)

Lock in your predictions for 12/31/2017 ...

I'l go first with 21400

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

12/31/17: 22,000!

23,456 on 12/31/17



Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?
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Offline Kings

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1091 on: July 26, 2018, 11:15:00 AM »
We still have 2 more weeks to go, but unless something happens, looks like DOW will go over 25,000.

And we all got it wrong in last December, we all predicted a little too low.  :)

Lock in your predictions for 12/31/2017 ...

I'l go first with 21400

23,500 boyyyyyyy!

12/31/17: 22,000!

23,456 on 12/31/17



Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?

up we go to 27k

I hate markets like this.  Very hard to make money. But the Apple announcement is extremely bullish for the year.

...But I LOVE markets like this!!!

Dow 25,039. My kinda market, nice trading range after a good 10% pullback from the highs.  Orderly sideways basing pattern, narrowing to form a pennant.  Breakout is eminent, but to which side?  My money is on a break to the upside.  Get on the Train, higher highs will be made before the end of the year.

Calling 27,000 EoY

Offline inv0ke-epipen

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1092 on: July 26, 2018, 11:30:26 AM »
HODL

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1093 on: July 27, 2018, 10:40:11 AM »
Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?

Policy wise, a lot of moves have been done to increase profitability.  GDP just came in at 4.1 percent.  But the expansion is long in the tooth.  Businesses are claiming to have problems hiring the talent they need, what they really mean is they have problems hiring the cheap young talent at the price they want. 

From a market standpoint, at least the Dow viewpoint, it kind of consolidated in 2016 with back to back ten percent corrections and recoveries.  Most of this year could be considered a consolidation with nearly a 10% correction.  We drop off the peak back in early January so we've been moving laterally here for six months.  If we consolidate up and break through 26,617 yea, 30K, if inflation turns ugly on the employment heat and we punch below 23,500, maybe down to 21,000. Overall I'd say about 80% we will be still here around 25,500. 

All that goes out the window though with November..  If blue wave happens, tankville.  If a Red wave happens, I also think tankville.  If Dem majority happens in the Senate to create a gridlock situation, JIMHO, tankville.  A status quo terse, slim Republican majority keeps the pro-business agenda moving forward without going off the rails into  IMHO, whackadoodle land.


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Re: Dow?
« Reply #1094 on: July 27, 2018, 10:45:19 AM »
Other than morekaos predicting 30k for 12/31/18, anyone else have a guess?

Been at 25k most of the year... up or down?

Policy wise, a lot of moves have been done to increase profitability.  GDP just came in at 4.1 percent.  But the expansion is long in the tooth.  Businesses are claiming to have problems hiring the talent they need, what they really mean is they have problems hiring the cheap young talent at the price they want. 

From a market standpoint, at least the Dow viewpoint, it kind of consolidated in 2016 with back to back ten percent corrections and recoveries.  Most of this year could be considered a consolidation with nearly a 10% correction.  We drop off the peak back in early January so we've been moving laterally here for six months.  If we consolidate up and break through 26,617 yea, 30K, if inflation turns ugly on the employment heat and we punch below 23,500, maybe down to 21,000. Overall I'd say about 80% we will be still here around 25,500. 

All that goes out the window though with November..  If blue wave happens, tankville.  If a Red wave happens, I also think tankville.  If Dem majority happens in the Senate to create a gridlock situation, JIMHO, tankville.  A status quo terse, slim Republican majority keeps the pro-business agenda moving forward without going off the rails into  IMHO, whackadoodle land.

GM says new wave of Trump tariffs could force job cuts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/06/29/gm-says-new-wave-of-tariffs-could-force-us-job-cuts.html

 

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