Author Topic: Dow?  (Read 325778 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2013, 08:52:40 AM »
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.
Whoah... easy... I respect Panda's knowledge and want to hear WHY he was wrong... not THAT he was wrong.

When people take a stance and give you good reasons why (or sometimes not), when it doesn't turn out that way, it's educational to hear why they think things happened the way they happened.

I did not think the Dow would hit 15k either... but I didn't really see any reason why it would not hit 13k.

For example, Liar Loan doesn't think this run-up is sustainable and he explained the "why"... and he will explain the "why not" if it doesn't work out how he expected because that's how he is... and I learn from that.

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market and I don't do option trading like USC so I have very little knowledge of the ins and outs of the market, so I ask these questions because I like to hear from those who know more than I do.

Don't get so "hung up" on my thirst for knowledge. :)
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Offline qwerty

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2013, 10:34:49 AM »
Iho  - what is there to explain? They were wrong. That's it. You always seem to get so hung up this stuff about people admitting they were wrong.
Whoah... easy... I respect Panda's knowledge and want to hear WHY he was wrong... not THAT he was wrong.

When people take a stance and give you good reasons why (or sometimes not), when it doesn't turn out that way, it's educational to hear why they think things happened the way they happened.

I did not think the Dow would hit 15k either... but I didn't really see any reason why it would not hit 13k.

For example, Liar Loan doesn't think this run-up is sustainable and he explained the "why"... and he will explain the "why not" if it doesn't work out how he expected because that's how he is... and I learn from that.

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market and I don't do option trading like USC so I have very little knowledge of the ins and outs of the market, so I ask these questions because I like to hear from those who know more than I do.

Don't get so "hung up" on my thirst for knowledge. :)

you are forgiven grasshopper.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2013, 10:49:47 AM »
Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Just to be clear, I'm still long the market for now, but I'm trying to position everything to be prepared for a crash when/if it happens.  I believe it will happen once investors anticipate rate increases from the Fed.  For now, let's all enjoy the "free" money.

Online morekaos

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #18 on: May 08, 2013, 11:01:10 AM »
As usual I am in complete agreement with LL.  I do hold open a hedging VIXY position just in case, but for now...don't step in front of a speeding train.

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #19 on: May 08, 2013, 11:32:47 AM »
Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2013, 12:21:36 PM »
The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.

Well, true investing has nothing to do with gambling.  If you approach it like one of your RE investments, looking for good cashflow opportunity, you will be fine in the long run.  The short term swings in the market will come and go.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2013, 12:36:55 PM »
Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.
It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term. 
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Offline Panda

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2013, 06:49:40 PM »
Haha... IHO. calling me out. Alright I will admit that i was wrong about 15,000 DOW, but you have to agree with me that the stock market is on crack right now.

But in my defense, you print me a trillion dollars and send it to me and I will show you hell of a time in Johns Creek. Forget Johns Creek, I will show you a hell a good time in Newport Coast  :-*
 
Hey Panda/Baby Irvine... care to comment on the 15k mark the Dow hit yesterday?

You may be right about John's Creek, but you have been very off about the Dow.

I want to hear your explanation because I admire people who can admit and explain their mistakes (still waiting on USC for his $40 call on Netflix too).
« Last Edit: May 12, 2013, 07:05:50 PM by Baby Irvine »
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Re: Dow?
« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2013, 07:02:58 PM »
Such great wisdom from the Trojanman.

It's like taking the SATs. You spend all your time studying and mastering every question possible in the critical reasoning section and not study anything else. You fail the analogy section, you fail reading comprehension, you fail sentence completion, you fail the entire math section, however in critical reasoning section you score in the 95%. In the real world, you will probably get a rejection letter from every community college, but in the real investing world.... you can do very well year after year.

"I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX."

Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.
It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term. 
« Last Edit: May 12, 2013, 07:09:56 PM by Baby Irvine »
James Park, MBA
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Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #24 on: May 12, 2013, 08:22:34 PM »
So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?
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Offline snowblind40

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #25 on: May 13, 2013, 12:07:23 PM »
Just to be clear, I'm not into the stock market

Really, not at all?

Well... not at a granular level. I follow certain stocks because their rise and fall tends to mirror consumer/business trends but any investment on my part is done at a mutual fund/401k level.

There are times I wished I pulled the trigger on certain ones, but my AAPL would have been a loser (although GOOG and NFLX would have made up for it).

The funny thing is I like to gamble, but not on things where there are too many variables that are not in your control. USC makes it sound easy... but I'm risk averse.
It's definitely not easy.  However, what makes it easier for me is that I trade what I know best and that's the VIX options along with VXX and VXX options.  I study the charts and look at fundamentals of the S&P since that's the underlying index that moves the VIX/VXX.  I also play options on companies that I know right before earnings, but those are my smaller plays.  The trading that I do with the VIX/VXX is definitely for at-risk capital and not for people who are risk adverse.  Because I take on and tolerate a good amount of risk, my returns are like 5-10x higher than what the S&P has returned...that's not to say that I don't use protection and/or stop losses.  The one nice benefit of trading VIX options is that they are considered 1256 contracts and so gains on those trades are automatically 40% short term and 60% loan term.

Can you explain this VIX/VXX option trading that you do? We're did you learn how to do this? Any links to learn more about this method you speak of?
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Offline Panda

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #26 on: May 13, 2013, 12:49:00 PM »
Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.



So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #27 on: May 13, 2013, 04:23:52 PM »
Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.



So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?
I'm not the one who made the "won't hit 13k" call.

To be clear, can you explain the reasons why the Dow did pass 13k, when you thought it wouldn't, and has even moved into record 15k territory.

I understand you don't think it will keep going up, but what I would like to know is you had reasons why you thought it wouldn't get above 13k, but it did.

Anyone can say "It's cyclical"... but when you call out specific marks, then there needs to be other evidence that supports it.
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Offline Panda

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #28 on: May 13, 2013, 10:18:14 PM »
IHO, I underestimated the impact of money printing and how it can inflate the DOW and I don't know of anyone who predicted that it would get this high.

I do know that this is not sustainable.   

Iho, I know you are a smart guy. On yahoo finance take a look at the dow chart from 1995 to 2013
Next pull a dow chart from 1955-1980.

You tell me what is going to happen to the dow.

Notice how the dollar is strengthening since feb 2013 while the stock market is on fire. I saw this coming and shorted the euro hard at 1.36.



So Panda... what do you think happened with the Dow?
I'm not the one who made the "won't hit 13k" call.

To be clear, can you explain the reasons why the Dow did pass 13k, when you thought it wouldn't, and has even moved into record 15k territory.

I understand you don't think it will keep going up, but what I would like to know is you had reasons why you thought it wouldn't get above 13k, but it did.

Anyone can say "It's cyclical"... but when you call out specific marks, then there needs to be other evidence that supports it.
James Park, MBA
Real Estate Broker and Loan Officer
CalBRE# 01894781, NMLS License # 1572291
Direct: (678) 865-6250
Email: jpark@johnscreekrealtypartners.com

http://www.biggerpockets.com/users/Panda
http://www.johnscreekrealtypartners.com

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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Dow?
« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2013, 07:58:53 AM »
IHO, I underestimated the impact of money printing and how it can inflate the DOW and I don't know of anyone who predicted that it would get this high.

I do know that this is not sustainable.   

It is sustainable.  It is sustainable via inflation.  That is the only path left.

The alternative at this point is not feasible.  Literally, multiple governments and countries will collapse.

 

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