Author Topic: What the "Dow" is happening?  (Read 49041 times)

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #420 on: January 04, 2019, 07:54:34 PM »
I did and agree

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Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #421 on: January 07, 2019, 09:14:02 AM »
More advice (for those who care) 

Don’t dabble in single stocks here - many more negative surprises may lie ahead when q4 and guidance comes out  . Need that out of the way first . If you are day trading in and out , this does not apply to you .

You must have done well if you bought indices during late dec when I recommended to go long . Still good , but don’t chase it much past 2700 if we get there too quickly

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Online aquabliss

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #422 on: January 07, 2019, 10:26:39 AM »
Option trading has been tough to make money in this market over the last couple months.  The volatility has really spiked option premiums upward.  Many weeks I would buy same week expiry index calls or puts (DIA/SPY/QQQ), and in a days time the index would be up or down a full % point in my favor only to learn that my option contract would have remained neutral price or gone up/down a few percent only.  You need huge moves to make decent money in options these days.

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #423 on: January 07, 2019, 11:38:59 AM »
It doesn’t surprise me that you try to spin the conversation.

Why don’t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/04/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-said-friday-central-bank-patient-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/

3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.

GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee


Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:

5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government,  Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)

6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)

9:00 AM ?????

This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title  this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.

My .02c

Did I miss a page of this thread?

I don't see where SGIP is spinning anything. Looks like he's just saying that rates can vary on any announcement whether it makes sense or not, it's very difficult to draw a direct correlation between interest rates and whatever is going on politically.
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Online eyephone

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #424 on: January 08, 2019, 09:45:27 AM »
It doesn’t surprise me that you try to spin the conversation.

Why don’t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/04/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-said-friday-central-bank-patient-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/

3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.

GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee


Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:

5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government,  Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)

6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)

9:00 AM ?????

This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title  this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.

My .02c

Did I miss a page of this thread?

I don't see where SGIP is spinning anything. Looks like he's just saying that rates can vary on any announcement whether it makes sense or not, it's very difficult to draw a direct correlation between interest rates and whatever is going on politically.

He talked about the rates and made a political opinion. But did not state all the facts. Blanket statement that senators oppose from opening the government is not true. Actually there might two GOP senators that are willing to sign a budget without funding a wall.


Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #425 on: January 08, 2019, 09:52:23 AM »
He talked about the rates and made a political opinion. But did not state all the facts. Blanket statement that senators oppose from opening the government is not true. Actually there might two GOP senators that are willing to sign a budget without funding a wall.

The bill that the House just passed previously passed Senate 100-0...that's like naming of Post Office level of agreement.  But of course, we can't pass that bill now!

Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #426 on: January 08, 2019, 10:03:23 AM »
He talked about the rates and made a political opinion. But did not state all the facts. Blanket statement that senators oppose from opening the government is not true. Actually there might two GOP senators that are willing to sign a budget without funding a wall.

The bill that the House just passed previously passed Senate 100-0...that's like naming of Post Office level of agreement.  But of course, we can't pass that bill now!

nailed it

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #427 on: January 08, 2019, 11:30:24 AM »
It doesn’t surprise me that you try to spin the conversation.

Why don’t you also mention the following:
1. Fed chairman Powelll mentioned that he would not resign if Trump asks him to.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/423869-fed-chief-powell-says-he-wont-resign-if-trump-asked-him-to

2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/01/04/fed-chairman-jerome-powell-said-friday-central-bank-patient-weighs-future-interest-rate-hike/2478660002/

3. Your statement regarding Senators continue to oppose reopening the government is not completely true.

GOP Senator Cory Gardner Says Congress Should Reopen Government Without Wall

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c2e82c1e4b05c88b7078eee


Today - Friday, Jan 5th 2029 is a prime example:

5:00 AM - Congressperson screams about impeachment while Republican Senators continue to oppose reopening the Government,  Bonds fall slightly (rates drop)

6:00 AM - Terrific jobs report released. Bonds rise sharply (rates rise)

9:00 AM ?????

This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment and in this environment of surprise announcements being the norm, commit early to a decision on rate locks - purchase or refi. To paraphrase a game show title  this present rate trought can twist between a deal or no deal faster than one might like.

My .02c

Did I miss a page of this thread?

I don't see where SGIP is spinning anything. Looks like he's just saying that rates can vary on any announcement whether it makes sense or not, it's very difficult to draw a direct correlation between interest rates and whatever is going on politically.

He talked about the rates and made a political opinion. But did not state all the facts. Blanket statement that senators oppose from opening the government is not true. Actually there might two GOP senators that are willing to sign a budget without funding a wall.



I get that you may have an issue with his 5:00AM example but I don't think that's the gist of his post.

He was just saying that rates can vary independently of what is going on politically. He even said:

Quote
This is not a thread post about politics, only that rate direction can pivot moment by moment...

So whatever he said about politics may or may not be correct... but the point he made about rates seems to be relevant. I think there has been so much back and forth in the political threads that some of that fervor is spilling over here.

Can we get back to the Dow?
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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #428 on: January 08, 2019, 12:10:47 PM »
Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative. Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Of course we can talk about the Dow.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2019, 12:25:20 PM by eyephone »

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #429 on: January 08, 2019, 02:22:29 PM »
Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Quote
Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Quote
Of course we can talk about the Dow.

Please.
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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #430 on: January 08, 2019, 02:46:55 PM »
What are you his Rudy? Because your not doing a good job defending him. In essence your continuing the conversation. I don’t mind actually.

Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Quote
Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Quote
Of course we can talk about the Dow.

Please.

Offline Mety

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #431 on: January 08, 2019, 02:59:08 PM »
He is his Kanye.
#fepo

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #432 on: January 08, 2019, 03:01:26 PM »
He is his Kanye.

Lol that’s funny.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #433 on: January 10, 2019, 07:16:17 AM »
What are you his Rudy? Because your not doing a good job defending him. In essence your continuing the conversation. I don’t mind actually.

Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Quote
Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Quote
Of course we can talk about the Dow.

Please.

Interesting words you are using... "defending"... does that mean you are "attacking"?

All I am saying is that to me, his post was about the whim of rates, sure he may have referenced something political but that he was just continuing on the theme that fortune11 had posted right before:

Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today

Maybe this is the wrong thread for this — but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence — you need to also be thinking ...

Think of this scenario — fed turns dovish on rates — trump calls ceasefire w Chiina — pboc keeps cutting rates — semi stocks stabilize — s&p hits 15 percents from here ...

Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does — you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself

Again, maybe because you guys don't align politically shouldn't detract from the point of his post that rate fluctuation is very hard to predict based on politics.

Do you agree or disagree with that? And does that same principal apply to the Dow?
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Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #434 on: January 10, 2019, 09:12:23 AM »
notice how despite all the bad earnings pre announcements, bad outlooks , etc (American air, retailers , autos) , market is nearly unchanged today ? 

it is about what is priced in -- the stock market , for better or worse, is the BEST economic forecaster we have out there. 

Fed better understand that soon enough.  Seeing the speeches and public comments from Fed governors last few days , looks like they are finally getting the message ...

 

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